John_Havok

Was just listening to the MLB Network over my lunch break and they were running down their predicted top 5 offensive teams for 2023. It was Lidge and some other guy I cant remember, but neither of them had the Jays in their projected top 5 offensive teams in baseball. They had the same team #1 (would have been the Mets or Braves, but stopped listening as soon as they said it was an NL team), Houston #2, then each had a different 3-5 consisting of a mix of Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres. Am I crazy for thinking the Jays are still easily a top 5 projected offensive team for 2023? LIke I get losing Teoscar is a blow, but the Jays were a top 2-5 team in virtually every offensive metric last season. Losing him and Gurriel and gaining Varsho isnt even close to dropping off a cliff. Are they high or am I expecting too much from the Jays?

4/5 at best which for this rotation right now would be just fine.

Bigger, drunker and more….drunk than ever before

Yeah he was good at dragging it past the pitcher on the 1b side where neither the 1b or 2b could get it and throw him out before he outran it.

For all we know that’s a gym backdrop in front of an ice cream buffet

A completely balanced schedule is not practical in terms of travel. West coast teams already get the travel shaft with divisional play as it is, with a balanced schedule it would be ludicrously different from central teams

Groshans?

How did Gooden not make the Hall? It’s called cocaine.

Yeah, probably Kiermaier will sit against lefties. I deleted that part of my post as it was getting too long

Back to the lineup/ batting order for a sec. Here’s the Jays main 11 players career splits vs lhp/ rhp in wRC+ Varsho: 66/112 Bo: 147/121 Springer: 145/130 Kirk: 126/124 Vlad: 115/140 Chapman: 120/119 Jansen: 83/105 Espinal: 125/91 Biggio: 101/106 Merrifield: 115/98 KK: 84/102 Didn’t think I’d see Espinal hitting lefties better than Vlad, but there it is. Strictly by This measure vs lefties you’d see a lineup like Bo SS Springer RF Kirk C Espinal (I know he won’t hit cleanup…relax) 2B Chapman 3b Vlad 1b Merrifield LF Biggio DH Kiermaier CF This lineup would be very good defensively and only have 1 hitter below average career vs Lefties in Kiermaier. I doubt they’d go this route and they’d probably have Jansen in the DH spot due to recent successes. Last seasons his LHP wRC+ was 136. It looks like they’ll keep Vlad top 3 no matter what so what I suspect the LHP lineup will look like is: Springer Bo Vlad Kirk Chapman Jansen Merrifield Espinal KK Could they swap a place here or there, sure. Espinal ahead of Merrifield, Jansen 5th over Chapman…sure. Vs RHP is probably not a big change from the above. Biggio probably swaps out Espinal, Varsho in for Merrifield. Top 6 hitters stay the same, bottom 3 would be Varsho, Biggio, KK, unless they wanted to split the lefties up or just continue using Merrifield at 2b instead of Biggio. I think they’ll probably run with Biggio initially though to see if the shift restrictions ends up being a boon for him. If they do they probably drop Jansen one place and move Varsho to 6th.

He was the best defender in baseball last season. Don’t worry about the D

Lgjr career PAs per HR is 27.41 in just over 1864 PAs. Varsho career PAs per HR is 24.93 in 1022 PAs. Both are large enough samples to be pretty stable. Maybe Gurriel recovers from his injury and gets his power back, maybe not. Even if does hit 20 HR next season…what’s he doing when he’s not hitting those 20 HRs? The other 550 PAs, defense and baserunning matter too. Those other aspects matter less the more HRs he hits, but if you’re thinking 20…they matter a shitload more. This is the thing that people need to keep in mind. HRs are cool, they generally equate to scoring runs. But when you’re only hitting 20 per year, in a full season, the other aspects of your game take up a much bigger chunk of your value.

AA must have the best looking trans hookers in America on his payroll.

Devon White’s first full season was 4.6 fWAR, 97 wRC+ Varsho’s first full season was last season, 4.6 fWAR, 106 wRC+ Kinda already is an early Devon White.

I think what you’re trying to get at (terribly…) is that power can play up in the post season because it’s harder to string together enough consecutive walks and non extra base hits off of elite starters and back end relievers, so if they do make mistakes it’s better to have power guys that can damage them with a long ball.

Where ya gonna find a coon to flip?

TL/DR = higher floor, less variance

You’d win that bet, but he wasn’t Deadpool yet, went by a previous handle at that time.

Yes, but he wasnt a mod then I don’t think. Ah the good ole days…when you could post your ex’s nudes on a baseball forum, which is tantamount to sexual harassment…without fear of repercussion

The batting order was not the point of the comment, literally put 0 thought into it, just illustrating the defensive versatility of the roster without harming the offense.

"I didn't really bother with changing though the bottom would likely shuffle a bit."

The Jays might actually do some damage against LHP this season with good defense still in play. I really like the flexibility of the Jays lineup this season. They're a decent threat to have a deep lineup against both RHP and LHP with elite defense. vs RHP Springer CF Bo SS Vlad 1b Chapman 3b Kirk C/DH Varsho LF KK CF Jansen C/DH Biggio 2b Vs LHP Springer RF Bo SS Vlad 1b Chapman 3b Kirk C/DH Varsho CF Merrifeld LF Jansen C/DH Espinal 2b Lineup order I didn't really bother with changing though the bottom would likely shuffle a bit. Point is, there's a lot to like with the interchangeable position players like Merrifield, Espinal and Biggio that allows the defense to stay well above average without losing anything at the plate against either arm side. Edit: while looking up OAA last season for the Jays, Biggio was sneaky great at 2b in his limited chances.

If there's one spot im no longer worried about, it's the 4th OF. Biggio and Merrifield can both fill in the outfield. One thing in the Jays favour this season is that their 4th OF no longer needs to be able to defend CF. If 1 CF goes down, there's still 2 more to play there and all the 4th OF needs to do is play a corner. Merrifield can do that fine, Biggio can do it as a 5th option with Lukes only a phone call away.

Bo is kinda stuck at SS right now. Yes, they COULD play Espinal there and Bo at 2nd everyday, but Espinal isnt a good enough hitter (IMO) against RHP to do that. Its not even Bo's glove thats the problem, it's his decision making with the arm.