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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Yeah I know the fWAR doesn’t matter, just using it as a reference to show that the perceived gap in talent between the two is not really apparent when you look closely at counting stats. And yes, the MVP award would carry a lot of weight. Bichette also has a SS and AS from 2021 though.
  2. John_Havok
    The formula he is referring to in these articles is that Jays internal one they use to calculate what they offer above league minimum to pre-arb players who perform well though, not the one relating to arbitration.
  3. John_Havok
    I find sportrac to be pretty inaccurate for MLB stuff. They show that Bo made 825,000 last year, when that's not the case at all either.
  4. John_Havok
    Firstly, It would be Bo's agent doing all of this, not Bo himself. Sure, the agent would be explaining it to him, but it's not like Bo is sitting down with a calculator trying to figure s*** out. He's likely looking at the numbers his agent has given him and is perfectly fine with what's happening because he believes he's worth more than 6.1 million. I would guess that the # they filed at was based on a very educated guess at what they jays were planning to offer and where they had the mid point pegged at. Regardless, I hope they settle, most players that have ever gone to a hearing and listened to their team bash them for an hour say it's a terrible thing to go through.
  5. John_Havok
    If it was as simple as plugging numbers into a forumla, these things would never go to arbitration since the agents would have figured out the formula years ago. It's not that simple. Yes, MLBTR uses a formula to project what they think a guy will get and in the past it's been fairly accurate. It has him at 6.1 million. Lets assume for the moment that it's right. All Bo's camp has to do is convince an arbitrator that he is worth an additional 125,000 and he wins.
  6. John_Havok
    Side note from the negotiations, I heard that Bo and Atkins were sitting across from each other and Atkins slid over his offer. Bo tried to throw it back and it ended up in the stands.
  7. John_Havok
    Most recent year matters, but it's not the be all end all argument. The primary criteria are the quality of the player’s contribution to the team during the past season, the length and consistency of the player’s career contribution, the player’s past compensation, comparative baseball salaries, the player’s injury history, and the team’s recent performance. Given that criteria, check out Vlad's -.2 fWAR season, followed by a 0.2 fWAR season, follwed by his 6.3 fWAR MVP caliber season and ending up getting 7.9 million Then compare Bo's first 4 seasons. Basically everything is a wash except Bo is was FAR more consistent in the seasons leading up, and Vlad had the higher previous year value. Comparitive baseball salaries definitely would favor a SS over a 1b/DH. To look at all the numbers I posted above, Bo asking for 7.5 is actually light IMO. He should have filed for 8.
  8. John_Havok
    Just to give the other side of the Bo argument... Vlad made 7.9 for his first arb season in 2022. Vlad's fWAR from 2019-2021 was 6.3 and it was practically all in 2021. He had to 2 crap years and 1 good year. Bo's fWAR from 2019-2022 (they were able to get an extra season due to manipulating service time) is 11.8. 69 HRs vs Vlads 72. 239 RBIs vs Vlads 219. 127 wRC+ vs Vlad's 135. 262 runs scored vs Vlad's 209. 100 doubles vs Vlad's 68. .298 average to Vlad's .289. The gap in PA's is less than 300, so around half a season with Bo having 1727 vs Vlad's 1455. OBP .340 to Vlad's .339. SLG .491 to Vlad's .517 I used the stats that are traditionally used in arbitration as far as I can tell. Bo's number is not crazy and you could probably argue he could have filed for a higher #. As it stands the Jays have filed at 5m, him at 7.5 so the midpoint is 6.25m. All his side has to do is prove he is worth at least 6.251 million and he gets 7.5. I'd say he wins that case without a doubt.
  9. John_Havok
    Fun facts about # 31 for the Jays, starting in 2006 with Ted Lilly, there were 11 different players that wore #31 until 2016 when Joe Biagini grabbed it for 4 consecutive seasons. The household names on the list include Ted Lilly, Victor Zambrano, John Parrish, Kyle Phillips, Shawn Hill, Brandon Lyon, Andy LaRoche, Kendall Graveman, Erik Kratz, Liam Hendriks and of course Joe Biagini. 1st players to wear 31 for the Jays were Dave Baker and Ken Schrom, who both wore it in 1982, and is currently worn by Thomas Hatch when he is actually with the club and not sucking in Buffalo.
  10. John_Havok
  11. John_Havok
    Adam Cimber (4.156): $3.15MM agreement Trevor Richards (4.084): $1.5MM agreement Danny Jansen (4.050): $3.5MM agreement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3.157) $14.5MM agreement Tim Mayza (3.156): $2.1MM agreement Cavan Biggio (3.129): $2.8MM agreement Erik Swanson (3.096) Trent Thornton (3.073): $1MM agreement Bo Bichette (3.063) Jordan Romano (3.051): $4.5375MM agreement Santiago Espinal (2.149): $2.1MM agreement Daulton Varsho (2.128): $3.05MM agreement Just Swanson and Biggio to go
  12. John_Havok
    Uh…Ryu. That’s like… massive. Votto could be bought out and be an FA though he might just retire. Merrifield could be, they have an 18 mil mutual option but just an 850k buyout. Gurriel Jr… Winker Bader Berlinger Teoscar JD Martinez Yeah, not exactly a load of top star power past Machado and Ohtani.
  13. John_Havok
    Vlad jr just signed for 14.5 m to avoid an arb hearing. He was Arb 2 and is a Super 2. Others that are/were arb eligible: Arb 2- Jansen, Richards, Bo, Mayza, Biggio. Arb 3 - Cimber Arb 1 - Romano, Varsho, Espinal, Swanson and Thornton. Espy, Varsho and Biggio are all Super 2s as well. If someone else can reply and fill in who has signed, that would be super too.
  14. John_Havok
    Just a heads up, the music thread is in the off topic section.
  15. John_Havok
    I think Ohtani starts at 12 years 45 per year (540m total) and goes up from there. It would not surprise me to see him end up with a 600 million dollar deal next offseason.
  16. John_Havok
    Baby steps. First they needs to run the challenge system for a few years to really show the umps how useles they are at calling balls/strikes compared to ABS.
  17. John_Havok
    My arm needs surgery just watching that.
  18. John_Havok
    I'd rather have the challenge system than the current one.
  19. John_Havok
    No he's still in the Hall, he just can't do anything anymore for MLB and will be banned from all MLB related functions.
  20. John_Havok
    I know where the 80% number came from, it was an "estimated" number from a Sports Illustrated article in 2015 that said: "Although salaries have risen steadily during the last three decades, reports from a host of sources (athletes, players' associations, agents and financial advisers) indicate that: • By the time they have been retired for two years, 78% of former NFL players have gone bankrupt or are under financial stress because of joblessness or divorce. • Within five years of retirement, an estimated 60% of former NBA players are broke." Not exactly a solid number, but probably not that far off from the truth. Full article here: https://vault.si.com/vault/2009/03/23/how-and-why-athletes-go-broke
  21. John_Havok
    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35434317/sources-all-aaa-parks-use-electronic-strike-zone-23 Robo umps getting closer.... half the season in AAA will be all ABS and half the season with a challenge system where the ump makes the call but they go to ABS if the pitch is challenged.
  22. John_Havok
    Theyve got a ton of guys coming off the books after this season. Darvish, Snell, Pomeranz and Hader are all FA, not to mention the near certainty of Machado opting out. That's close to 100 million right there.
  23. John_Havok
    Yeah, I think Manoah would be a candidate that they might sign to a deal that might buy out a year or 2 of free agency, it wouldn't be super expensive. Generally dont want to go nuts with pitchers and long term extensions while they are still under control early on. Jansen, sure, but something similar or shorter to what AA just gave Murphy wouldn't be terrible.
  24. John_Havok
    Looking at the Jays entire 40 man roster, 10 are home grown. Manoah, Vlad, Bo, Jansen and Kirk as starters, Romano, Mayza, Biggio, Lopez and Pearson for the bench and relievers. Of that list, really only the first 5 would be anyone you'd worry about wanting to extend, and youd only do it with 1 catcher.
  25. John_Havok
    Hardly. Sano never posted a K rate below 34%. Vlads worst season K rate would have to double to get Sano's best season K rate.
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