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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    I put up the spray charts also. Maybe the new wall heights took one or two away, but without being able to break down those charts into home vs away it’s hard to say for sure. Checking baseball savant though, very interesting on the HR vs xHR numbers from 2021 vs 2023. Based on each years batted ball profiles, he hit nearly exactly the amount of HRs he was expected to. But check the number of “Mostly Gone” HRs from 2021 vs 2023. 2021 - 39 2023 - 19
  2. John_Havok
    Fangraphs splits give you pulled rates for fly balls, line drives, grounders and the raw data. 234 grounders, 179 fly balls, 93 line drives. Total of 506. Pulled fly ball rate of 25.7%. Basically 46 pulled fly balls. 19 of them HRs by my eyes and using the batter ball data from Fangraphs. Compare to 2021 496 total, 222 ground balls, 181 fly balls, 93 line drives. Pulled fly ball rate of 26%, 47 pulled fly balls. He hit around 20 HR it looks like depending on where the line is that stops being pull and starts being center. Really looks like pulled HRs wasn’t Vlads issue this season when compared to 2021, it was all the CF, RCF and oppo tacos that drastically declined, specifically right centre and CF. 2023 Vlad hit 0 Hrs to right centre, 2 to CF and 5 oppo 2021 Vlad hit like 10 Hr to right centre, another 10 to CF, and 8 oppo. Numbers aren’t perfect I suppose given where the lines get drawn, but that RCF and CF difference is massive https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vladimir-guerrero-jr/19611/spray-charts?position=1B&type=battedball&pid2=19611&ss1=2023&se1=2023&ss2=2021&se2=2021&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL
  3. John_Havok
    I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the 2024 blue Jays DONT win the world series. Will probably be attacked for saying so That prediction will be right for 29 of 30 teams. Predicting your team won't win the WS isn't some indication of fantastic prognostication talents that only you possess.
  4. John_Havok
    How so? There's 29 teams every season that don't quite have enough and come up short.
  5. John_Havok
    Atkins doesn't give 2 shits about that. Executives don't linger on things that have nothing to do with their team very often
  6. John_Havok
    I was moreso wondering if they would have done it again in game 3 had they won game 2, just by using one of the other lefties
  7. John_Havok
    Would have been interesting for sure to see how they would have handled Bassitt in a very similar situation in a hypothetical Game 3, given he also gets crushed by lefties.
  8. John_Havok
    I await your first report on dating the chiquitas. I'll especially like the part where you dont only date them, but also their brothers, cousins, parents, neighbors and every other family member within 3 generations that you actually date when you try to date a chiquita.
  9. John_Havok
    Can't think of a better way to have said this. Well done.
  10. John_Havok
    Yeah the pen is that gap I was mentioning. Realistically the only thing preventing the Dodgers from showing up right now is all the injuries to the SP.
  11. John_Havok
    Pretty close to it yup. I’d still say the Braves are better but it’s not a huge gap.
  12. John_Havok
    You’re right, except Baltimore’s ownership won’t be paying what needed to get the higher end arms, they’ll sign the 4s and 5s (plenty to choose from this off-season) like they did with Gibson and just hope to outhit the opposition. What’s more likely with Baltimore is they find a team with excess young starting pitching prospects who needs a young position player prospect and swing a deal.
  13. John_Havok
    Houston clowning on Minne right now.
  14. John_Havok
    I agree with everything here except the part about Bo and Jansen being included in the declining player category. 116 wRC+ with 17 bombs and 2 fWAR in just a hair over 300 PAs I’ll take from my catcher any season. Ditto 125 wRC+ and 4fWAR from my SS. His counting numbers were only down due to missing ~90 PA from his injury.
  15. John_Havok
    I’m not really betting on it either, just saying it’s not crazy. Vlad and Bo being 4fWAR is a reasonable expectation. Davis Schneider? Springer? Jansen or Kirk? All of the above have shown they have the talents, its just a matter of health, age and experience there. I wouldn’t bet on any of those 4 individually but if I had to pick from a few guys who could get there, it would be between those 4.
  16. John_Havok
    I do t think anyone disagrees that having another all star calibre talent isnt needed. It's just that it doesn't necessarily have to come from this year's FA pickings. It could come via trade or by someone already in the fold stepping up. Would anyone be truly shocked if Bo, Vlad and one other position player already on the team were deserving all stars next season?
  17. John_Havok
    Yes, but some of that power has to come from the guys already here. Bo with 25, Vlad with 35, Varsho with 25, Jansen/Kirk combining for 30, all of those things should be projected reasonably. Not sure where Schneider would project as I haven’t looked that up but with full playing time, 20 would be a reasonable expectation. Rotation DH role should net 20+ give or take. Springer 20+ with health, (though he’d probably project higher) That’s 175 right there without thinking about who’s playing LF or 3b. Adding 40 or more combined there puts them in the top 10 in mlb. I don’t see them contending with Atlanta for the MLB lead at over 300. I suppose my overall point from not wanting Teo is…I want someone in the lineup who doesn’t just hit HRs and is patently useless the rest of the time.
  18. John_Havok
    i just don't think Teo is the kind of player the Jays need. Yes, he hits some HRs, but he does nothing else well. When he isn't hitting HRs, which is the vast majority of the time, he is hurting the team. He's bad on D, and worse than Vlad on the bases, which is saying something given Teo has far superior speed. I would rather bring back Lourdes than Teo, and I really don't want Lourdes back either.
  19. John_Havok
    If you're thinking switching to Latina women will make things less weird and more simple....I await your first report.
  20. John_Havok
    This is why I am actively rooting against Arizona, just to hopefully avoid the constant avalanche of uninformed ignorant whining about Moreno
  21. John_Havok
    Gravity is a bitch
  22. John_Havok
    Vlads value on plays where he had to come on, go to his right, go to his left, and go back. 2021- 0,0,-1,-2 2022- -1,-3,+1,0 2023- -2,-9,-2,0 He s*** the bed on balls hit to his non-glove side. Everything else was right around his norm of previous seasons.
  23. John_Havok
    I'd rather see him eating at any of those places over grandma's table.
  24. John_Havok
    Vlad would have inside outed that to Rf for a single, and Buck would have praised his oppo approach.
  25. John_Havok
    That’s encouraging
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