John_Havok

If there was ever a time for a contract that includes stock options, now is that time

Crazier things have happened, but yeah it's probably a pipe dream

No doubt, with his talents he should be able to sneeze in the batters box and hit 20+. He’s got all the talent, I just think his general approach needs refining. And I don’t mean going oppo more or pulling more in general, just the way he goes about his PAs. Look for a pitch in a location and if you don’t get it, don’t swing. Seems basic but that’s clearly not what he’s up there thinking most PAs going by his swing decisions. One thing he needs to tighten up is his tendency to swing at the next pitch virtually every single time he gets a borderline strike called against him. Countless times this season a pitcher will get a favourable call outside on a fastball and then throws one even further out and Vlad was a guaranteed swing. He has to figure that part out as it’s a very easy thing for pitchers to exploit

Possible, it’s hard to say. On one hand, the amount of older players signed to long term deals isn’t getting much shorter over the next few seasons so they’ll need some younger guys to step up. Early impressions on Schneider are adequate, but there’s some obvious warning signs present. Clement and Horwitz look like part-timers to me, though I think Horwitz has a better shot at becoming a regular. Neither are likely to be impact guys. Otto Lopez is a backup, Leo Jiminez is a backup… you’re right in that the more likely impact guys are Orelvis and Tiedemann, though I think Barger has a decent chance to be. I give Schneider an outside chance at being an impact guy though if he can make the needed adjustments. Who knows, they might go in house for every spot. Put Barger in left, Orelvis at 3rd, Schneider at 2nd and then throw money at Ohtani as the primary DH/and backup 1b. It wouldn’t be the worst way to go in such a crappy free agent hitting class. Clement as the primary IF backup, Eden may even survive as the primary OF backup/pinch runner. Then sign a guy like Pham or Renfroe as the weak side of a platoon with Barger.

Sadly...no

Looking at Vlads expected HRs by stadium... 2021 he would have hit 57 in Cinci, this season 36 if all his batted balls were in that stadium.

I think what he was alluding to is basically that the Jays piled up hits, but not runs so need to figure out if the overall system was to blame or not. RISP issues went terribly in the first half, bounced way back over expectations in the second half.

Yeah the % of fly balls hit to CF only went up by 1.5%, fly balls to RF for him went down by about the same 1.5%. I’d have to do a deeper dive and see what the average distances were, but just looking at it visually it seems that overall distance might be down slightly, but there’s still a big cluster in RCF in 2023 that looked like they were possible HRs that ended up as doubles. Which park he was in at the time is likely a factor.

Not a huge leap give they have 2 glaring holes to fill, but realistically the biggest signing they could make is Ohtani, which wont happen, the Snell, doesn't need to happen, I'm guessing the biggest FA they would be even close to thinking about is Candelario for 3b. Maybe that's a big signing? Definitely not overly splashy. I still want them to swing deal with Chicago for Luis Robert.

I just now realized the Braves started Kevin Pillar intentionally…in a playoff elimination game.

She came off like a whiney fan, such a bad look for a supposed professional. I really don’t think people understand how fast these executives have to move past trades, transactions, etc and focus their energy elsewhere. Shapiro couldn’t give 2 shits about whether any single player the team traded in the past 8 years makes the playoffs and goes further. They may review process from time to time, but that’s about it. If the process continually results in terrible deals and acquisitions, they’ll review the process. Atkins process overall has been fine. They don’t have time to worry about crap beyond their control. I guarantee Friedman and Zaidi don’t give a second thought to trading Yordan Alvarez before he ever played a single game in the minors

Varsho is a pretty good example also. Wrc+ by month 68 88 108….trending up perfectly right until July 23 111 102

So very very good. He is so prepared to answer everything right off the cuff. Dude knows the Jays inside out, backwards and forwards. Also, what a moronic question from the reporter asking him whether he’s watching Moreno in the playoffs. Laughably stupid question and he shamed her in the most likeable professional way possible. Steve is also a moron. It’s not a reporters job to tell executives what the reporter personally believes about a specific move that was made. What a clown

I put up the spray charts also. Maybe the new wall heights took one or two away, but without being able to break down those charts into home vs away it’s hard to say for sure. Checking baseball savant though, very interesting on the HR vs xHR numbers from 2021 vs 2023. Based on each years batted ball profiles, he hit nearly exactly the amount of HRs he was expected to. But check the number of “Mostly Gone” HRs from 2021 vs 2023. 2021 - 39 2023 - 19

Fangraphs splits give you pulled rates for fly balls, line drives, grounders and the raw data. 234 grounders, 179 fly balls, 93 line drives. Total of 506. Pulled fly ball rate of 25.7%. Basically 46 pulled fly balls. 19 of them HRs by my eyes and using the batter ball data from Fangraphs. Compare to 2021 496 total, 222 ground balls, 181 fly balls, 93 line drives. Pulled fly ball rate of 26%, 47 pulled fly balls. He hit around 20 HR it looks like depending on where the line is that stops being pull and starts being center. Really looks like pulled HRs wasn’t Vlads issue this season when compared to 2021, it was all the CF, RCF and oppo tacos that drastically declined, specifically right centre and CF. 2023 Vlad hit 0 Hrs to right centre, 2 to CF and 5 oppo 2021 Vlad hit like 10 Hr to right centre, another 10 to CF, and 8 oppo. Numbers aren’t perfect I suppose given where the lines get drawn, but that RCF and CF difference is massive https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vladimir-guerrero-jr/19611/spray-charts?position=1B&type=battedball&pid2=19611&ss1=2023&se1=2023&ss2=2021&se2=2021&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the 2024 blue Jays DONT win the world series. Will probably be attacked for saying so That prediction will be right for 29 of 30 teams. Predicting your team won't win the WS isn't some indication of fantastic prognostication talents that only you possess.

How so? There's 29 teams every season that don't quite have enough and come up short.

Atkins doesn't give 2 shits about that. Executives don't linger on things that have nothing to do with their team very often

I was moreso wondering if they would have done it again in game 3 had they won game 2, just by using one of the other lefties

Would have been interesting for sure to see how they would have handled Bassitt in a very similar situation in a hypothetical Game 3, given he also gets crushed by lefties.

I await your first report on dating the chiquitas. I'll especially like the part where you dont only date them, but also their brothers, cousins, parents, neighbors and every other family member within 3 generations that you actually date when you try to date a chiquita.

Can't think of a better way to have said this. Well done.

Yeah the pen is that gap I was mentioning. Realistically the only thing preventing the Dodgers from showing up right now is all the injuries to the SP.

Pretty close to it yup. I’d still say the Braves are better but it’s not a huge gap.

You’re right, except Baltimore’s ownership won’t be paying what needed to get the higher end arms, they’ll sign the 4s and 5s (plenty to choose from this off-season) like they did with Gibson and just hope to outhit the opposition. What’s more likely with Baltimore is they find a team with excess young starting pitching prospects who needs a young position player prospect and swing a deal.