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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. Yes, they did with Richards 3 times who was absolutely nailz while doing it too. Otherwise no, every pitcher who started the other 159 games were SPs. Gausman, Berrios, Manoah, Bassitt, Ryu and Kikuchi and Parsons (using the term SP with Parsons loosely)
  2. Well, im sure if people looked they could find plenty of examples of "early" hooks that paid off just as well. Again, not defending this move, just saying its far easier to remember s*** that went wrong vs right because things going right is what's supposed to happen, it doesn't stand out. The reason Bautista's HR is that much more memorable and legendary isnt because he hit a HR to take the lead in a playoff game, but because of the comedy of errors that occured the entire inning leading up to it. Encarnacion walked off the Orioles in a series and his HR isn't spoke of with near the status of Bautista's.
  3. Firstly, I'll say I didn't agree with the hook but it doesn't show a misuse of analytics. Analytically it was the right move to get a lefty facing Lefty's as Berrios splits vs lhb wasn't great. In a vacuum it was the right call. But it was still wrong.
  4. Its fine to try and put someone else's model into place, but to do so you need to have the personnel too. It's easy to try and identify undervalued guys, its another thing entirely to know what underlying issues are causing that player to be undervalued and then take the right steps to fix the issues. The philosophy is easy to duplicate but the execution is not.
  5. Here's Varsho's 2022 Splits for Pulled rate on the ground, fly balls and line drives in order of Pull, Centre, Oppo, rounded to the nearest Half percent grounders 64% 26%, 10% fly balls 42%, 36%, 22.5% line drives 60.5%, 26%, 14% 2023 grounders 66%, 25%, 10% fly balls 37.5%, 27.5%, 35% line drives 50.5%, 30%, 19.5% its no wonder his power is down. he fell victim to the same "up the middle - oppo" ******** system the Jays were clearly preaching.
  6. I’m not saying they have to, just saying it’s pretty likely.
  7. No s***. Whatever **** reported the other **** for saying **** is the ****iest **** who ever ****ed.
  8. Bullpen: Keep Romano, Green, Yimi, Swanson, Mayza, Cabrera, for the active roster. Cimber is a non tender, Parsons an obvious DFA. I’d try to trade Richards because he’s only 1 year left, he still has value but Romano, Mayza, Cabrera and Swanson need raises and I’d rather give his money to other guys. I’d really want to try and bring back Hicks but with the other guys getting raises I just don’t see it happening unless he takes a pretty significant discount. Still have open spots for guys like Pearson, Danner, Pop, Zulu, Francis (if he’s not in the rotation) and other guys not currently on the 40 man to fight over. Green is a bit of a wildcard here as I don’t think I’d want him for 3 more years at 9, but he would definitely decline his option then, and then the Jays would owe him high AAV for only 2 years..or he walks. Best case really is if he takes his 1 year 6.25 option after the jays decline their first option. Doubt that happens, but it could if he feels like a good year can set him up for another multiyear deal for 2025 and beyond. But if something weird happens and green isn’t back, throw that money at Hicks. White is another wildcard for the pen as I’m sure he’ll get a shot at a rotation spot if he’s still with the team given his late season successes at AAA. I’m not entirely sure if he’s a free agent or if he just becomes rule 5 eligible so I’ll withhold a full opinion until that is clarified. Rotation: 4 names are set in stone unless a trade happens so the 5th spot right now is likely between Francis, Tiedemann(if they can manage innings effectively enough) Manoah (maybe?) the minor league guys and White depending on his status. There’s tons of back end starters in free agency this off-season too so #5 could possibly come from outside the org. Lineup: Goodbye Chapman, KK, Merrifield, Belt, Heineman, Eden. Jimenez, Lukes and Lopez could be DFA and lost but…whatever. Biggio stays as a bench guy. I think Horwitz gets a shot at being DH. Clement on the bench as I believe he is out of options after this season. C: Jansen 1b: Vlad 2b: Schneider SS: Bo 3b: Possible internal competition of Barger and Orelvis though I suspect this will be filled externally for a glove first stop gap LF: ? - must not be brain dead defensively or on the bases. Would really help to hit left handed with actual power. CF: Varsho RF: Springer DH: Horwitz Bench: Kirk Biggio Clement Backup OF who can play passable CF Rule 5 possible adds: Macko, Lantigua, White(if eligible - see above), there’s a bunch more but these 3 are the most likely imo.
  9. Yeah for sure, guess we’re going for a blackout.
  10. Yup. Lots of singles? Check Bad results with RISP? Check No power to be seen from anyone? Check. Multiple 400 foot outs to CF? Check. Inexcuseable baserunning errors at key times? Check Bingo!
  11. We’ll see how it goes, he has command issues at the best of times and that finger might lead to him hitting the bull.
  12. 1 extra base hit in 2 games. But still the idiots talk about small ball and moving runners…up the middle…go the other way. That’s how you get 1 run over two games, praying for babip luck.
  13. Yeah I don’t really get that at all.
  14. Come on dude, obvious troll is obvious. Easiest guy to block ever
  15. Lol. All ya can do is laugh at this point 3 straight hits and no runs. But yeah, let's keep preaching small ball and staying up the middle, going the other way
  16. 402 foot flyout from Chappy oncoming?
  17. That could be. Ive only seen him throw once so I can't match up the eye test with the data yet
  18. Id still like to see the walks get under more control. 5.6 BB/9 at AA this season. I have some doubts that he would survive at the MLB level right away. Stuff is nasty no doubt but the control of that stuff is not there yet IMO
  19. Talent wise... maybe but he'd have to get to near 100 inning this season if they truly thought he could pitch in the rotation next season no? Even with a few more starts in the AFL he'll be lucky to top 70. I suppose it would be doable with a dedicated piggyback kind of situation but next season his max would be 100-110 at the upper limit.
  20. I think the ump was pretty lax on calling low strikes consistently too, that didn’t help. That’s anecdotal though I’ll have to wait and see what the scorecard says
  21. I’ll wait for the ump scorecard but it seems like the bottom of the zone was not being called.
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