John_Havok

I disagree on the assumption that Moreno has figured out the power aspect using half a season of data... though I concede that the assumption I made of Kirk re-discovering his earlier power is also based on the same half a season, so... could probably call that a wash. Is recency bias more in play with Moreno simply due to age, unfatness and the chance that he "figures it all out?" Kirk isn't exactly ancient either, I'd say the chances of either one of them figuring out the power is roughly equal. I would agree Moreno has more raw pop, but maybe like 55 vs a 50 for Kirk? Not a huge gap. I'd probably put 40 grades on their game power. Their HRs/PA will probably be pretty close going forward. Kirk is currently 1 HR every 38 PAs, Moreno is 1 HR for every 56 in regular season, 1 HR for 45 PAs including the postseason, though SSS caveats apply. 2023 seasons standing alone, Kirk was 1 HR every 53 PA, Moreno (including playoffs) 1 HR every 41 PAs. Still not quite to Kirk's career average. I suppose the overall feeling is which side gets more weight, recent results for Moreno vs early results for Kirk. Kirks earlier career power also came at an earlier age then Moreno, 21/22 age seasons for Kirk vs age 23 season for Moreno. I also make a bit of an assumption on Kirk that he will put some effort in the weight loss and become a less s***** runner over the next few seasons before his knees give out like all catchers' knees do and put him right back at the floor he is at now.

Well, Kirk has already shown he can hit for power in MLB in the past (admittedly it was maybe half a season), he just hasn't more recently, so you would expect it could return IF he can make the needed adjustments. Moreno hasnt demonstrated the upside of power that Kirk has yet. Overall it's probably a moot point as neither of them profile to have power as a calling card going forward, but If I had to bet on which guy would hit 15 or more HR over a season a couple of times before they were 30, it would be Kirk. Neither guy runs the bases well, which is odd to see for Moreno since he's a far better athlete than Kirk. Kirk has the better framing, Moreno has a better arm/pop time (difference of 0.08 seconds so... not massive but it's there). Both are excellent blockers, Kirk gets a bit of an edge there though for body of work There's likely not enough between the two guys that you'd think one would drastically outperform the other in terms of total fWAR if both guys have similar playing time. And interestingly... Baseball savant has the catcher throwing metrics broken down into 5 different aspects... avg footspeed of base stealer, avg number of feet from 2b when the ball crosses the plate, total pop time, then transfer time and avg arm velo in MPH. Very cool to go through

Yeah, and everything said in the post made sense. all 3 catchers had value, all 3 had concerns attached due to injury history or lack of power. Tried catcher A, then B, then they took C. Despite the results from a team perspective, I'd still do that trade. Varsho just had like a 15th percentile outcome with the bat in 2023, that's not really something you expect to happen and still managed to be incredibly useful on the basepaths and defense. Even a return to league average with the bat and he's everything the Jays need for the next 3 seasons in CF. I'd give up a young limp noodle bat catcher with very debateable defense and 1 year of LGJ for that profile anytime.

Winning the Central is like a gold medal at the Special Olympics. Sure you won, but.....

If Vlad puts up the numbers the Jays want, he’ll get the number he wants.

All very interesting info. Would love to sign both Ohtani and YY…that would free up a trade of Kikuchi to fill another area of need while keeping Manoah and Tiedeman as the next guys up when injury hits. Signing a #5 in this market to a 1 year deal would be easy as hell after that. Weird to hear them moving on from both Barger and Orelvis as a possible 3B, but that would definitely explain their interest in bringing Chappy back or getting Candaleiro. Roden needs HR power. I hope he develops it because it’s still not showing up in results yet. Regarding the Bo and Vlad situation…yep. That’s just so typical Blue Jays. They one they want won’t sign, the one that wants to sign isn’t what they want. Manoah situation makes far more sense now.

Dunno, on one hand it makes perfect sense that you'd only blow your wad if you land the big fish, but on the other hand if you're willing to go that high for only 1 player, why not go that high anyways and maybe land 3 upper-mid guys?

Was watching mLB Network at some point in the past week and it was said the Jays have 2 budget numbers in mind for 2024, one that includes Ohtani and one that doesn't.

Saying something is a weakness of a system and could be better vs saying something is "non-existent" is not even close to the same thing. It's akin to rudimentary sales techniques that claim their product is "the best thing in the world" in order to attract attention. If thats what you need to do do get attention or to have an opinion noticed.... it probably means your opinion is worthless and without substance.

What can I say, pointless hyperbole without substance is just that....pointless.

How is it non-existent? Just because his guys don’t take up X number of spots on prospect lists every year doesn’t really mean all that much. Also, if the only way you evaluate drafting a development is if every guy drafted comes up to play for the Jays and excels, then every team in baseball sucks at drafting and development overall. Using prospects as trade bait is one aspect of a farm systems value. Jays also got 3 fWAR this season from 3 guys who combined for only like 230 PAs, none of whom even sniffed top 100 status like…ever. That doesn’t support your narrative of “non-existent” Manoah was a Cy young runner up on his second full season. not exactly “non-existent ” Also, understand I’m not saying the Jays system is stacked or anything and his drafting and development is amazing either; just that his drafting and development, while definitely an area that could use improvement, is not “non existent” by any stretch of the imagination.

AB roll call includes me, you, wilko and P2F though he doesnt post much anymore.

He'd go wherever gives him the money he wants. But...no I don't see the Jays looking for a guy like Rowdy.

Not really. He'd a year behind him in arb years, isnt a super 2 and don't hit 49 HRs a few seasons ago. He couldn't have got near that much yet.

Don't skip your meds. Please.

If you think for millisecond that MLB isnt watching all of this stuff extremely closely and needs a pitcher to let them know of anything that some random surgeons say, you're dreaming.

Did you mean incarcerate or...sign to longer term deal?

Truly

I doubt there's much of a causation link between geographic origin of a pitcher and their subsequent injury rates.

Athletic article on the Jays non-tender situation condensed version: Arbitration-eligible players with estimated 2024 salaries (via MLB Trade Rumors) Adam Cimber: $3.2 million - they seem to feel he is likely non-tendered Trevor Richards: $2.4 million - didnt even talk about him in the article, IMO he's tendered but a likely trade candidate Danny Jansen: $5.2 million - obviously tendered Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $20.4 million - obviously tendered Tim Mayza: $3.3 million - obviously tendered Cavan Biggio: $3.7 million - they waffle a bit here, but to me he's a lock to be tendered Erik Swanson: $2.7 million - obviously tendered Jordan Romano: $7.7 million - obviously tendered Génesis Cabrera: $1.4 million - obviously tendered Santiago Espinal: $2.5 million - some back and forth on him, I think he's Non-tendered Daulton Varsho: $5.5 million - obviously tendered Alejandro Kirk: $2.6 million - obviously tendered Nate Pearson: $800K - obviously tendered Pre Arb Bubble Boys: not much insight on these guys since league minimum guys don't "need" to be cut to save money but IMO; RHP Wes Parsons - non-tendered RHP Zach Pop - keep C Tyler Heineman - dump and re-sign to minor league deal UTIL Ernie Clement - keep, trade candidate UTIL Otto Lopez - keep, trade candidate OF Nathan Lukes - could go either way, probably leaning towards keep right now given he's their defacto LF right now. Could be DFA once a real player is acquired.

Dude has already told his team his young guys are as good as gone as soon as it saves him money.

Every division with big spenders is competitive, though so…that kind of logic is pretty flawed.

Never in 100 years would Baltimore shell out 500 million on a player

Some teams haven't handed out 300 million total over the past 5 years for their entire teams. I would guess probably 5 teams or close to that

The TL : DR version..... I keep making 10s of millions of dollars in revenue sharing and I can't take the chance of that cash cow drying up...so f*** y'all, we out.