John_Havok

Makes sense, he's clearly too young for the Cards rotation.

My guess would be it would depend on the count. If its a favourable pitcher count they could "waste" a pitch out or two. Probably some weird combo of that, plus who the pitcher is, catcher is etc.

Winter meetings are going to be very interesting to say the least. That when Yamamoto and his entourage will be in the US talking with interested teams.

So much better, I know.

Yeah, once a guy is in the kind of territory that he's in... 13 years 625 million from Detroit ... vs 13 years 600 million from say the Dodgers. Would a guy really go to Detroit just for the extra 2 million per season?

Also some numbers on how steals were impacted with the # of disengagements: 0 disengagements - 1.4% attempt // 9.6 ft lead at first move // 77.7% advance rate 1 disengagement - 5.3% attempt // 10.4 ft lead at first move // 79.4% advance rate 2 disengagements - 10.4% attempt // 11.1 ft lead at first move // 79.0% advance rate

I'd be floored if Ohtani considered Detroit for even a millisecond over other markets. I'd also be floored to see Detroit be even close to offering the kind of money it would take to sign him. That said, they certainly have the payroll space to do it. They're only projected at just over 70 million for 2024 and have spent big in the past.

Not sure if anyone has been checking this at all but Baseball Savant now has a leader board for Pitcher Running Game, basically to "express the skill of pitchers at preventing base runners from advancing on the bases, via steal attempts or pickoffs/balks." Jays pitchers in 2023 Kikuchi was the best at +4 runs Richards was +3 Berrios +2 Ryu was +1 Garcia was 0 Swanson -1 Bassitt -3 Manoah -4 Gausman -6 Best in baseball was Dylan Cease at +10 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitcher-running-game?game_type=Regular&n=q&pitch_hand=all&runner_moved=All&prior_pk=All&season_end=2023&season_start=2023&sortColumn=simple_prevented_on_running_attr&sortDirection=desc&split=no&team=&type=Pit&with_team_only=1&expanded=0 How this works: Each steal opportunity (currently runners at 1B only) is assigned a probability of being successful or not based on several inputs about the situation, most notably the speed of the runner. “Lead distance gained” expresses the distance gained by the runner between the pitcher’s first move and the release of the pitch. How to read it: Pitcher Base Advances Prevented is the difference between advances allowed (vs. avg) and outs created (vs. avg). Pitcher Stealing Runs is a translation of that to a run value, where an advance allowed is -.2, an out created is +.45, and opportunities where a runner did not attempt to run are given a sliding scale based on the situation. To be qualified a pitcher must have at least one stolen base opportunity per team game. A stolen base opportunity is defined as a pitcher thrown with a runner on first (and no other runners on).

I can't see any potential pitfalls at all.

Cardinals 1-5 rotation now by age for the 2024 season. Gray - 34 Lynn - 37 Mikolas - 35 Gibson - 36 Matz - 33

Yup, Bally Sports North going tits up is going to hit them hard.

I don't think Rogers has any brand footprint in Japan at all does it? I don't know much about wireless carriers over there.

I disagree on the assumption that Moreno has figured out the power aspect using half a season of data... though I concede that the assumption I made of Kirk re-discovering his earlier power is also based on the same half a season, so... could probably call that a wash. Is recency bias more in play with Moreno simply due to age, unfatness and the chance that he "figures it all out?" Kirk isn't exactly ancient either, I'd say the chances of either one of them figuring out the power is roughly equal. I would agree Moreno has more raw pop, but maybe like 55 vs a 50 for Kirk? Not a huge gap. I'd probably put 40 grades on their game power. Their HRs/PA will probably be pretty close going forward. Kirk is currently 1 HR every 38 PAs, Moreno is 1 HR for every 56 in regular season, 1 HR for 45 PAs including the postseason, though SSS caveats apply. 2023 seasons standing alone, Kirk was 1 HR every 53 PA, Moreno (including playoffs) 1 HR every 41 PAs. Still not quite to Kirk's career average. I suppose the overall feeling is which side gets more weight, recent results for Moreno vs early results for Kirk. Kirks earlier career power also came at an earlier age then Moreno, 21/22 age seasons for Kirk vs age 23 season for Moreno. I also make a bit of an assumption on Kirk that he will put some effort in the weight loss and become a less s***** runner over the next few seasons before his knees give out like all catchers' knees do and put him right back at the floor he is at now.

Well, Kirk has already shown he can hit for power in MLB in the past (admittedly it was maybe half a season), he just hasn't more recently, so you would expect it could return IF he can make the needed adjustments. Moreno hasnt demonstrated the upside of power that Kirk has yet. Overall it's probably a moot point as neither of them profile to have power as a calling card going forward, but If I had to bet on which guy would hit 15 or more HR over a season a couple of times before they were 30, it would be Kirk. Neither guy runs the bases well, which is odd to see for Moreno since he's a far better athlete than Kirk. Kirk has the better framing, Moreno has a better arm/pop time (difference of 0.08 seconds so... not massive but it's there). Both are excellent blockers, Kirk gets a bit of an edge there though for body of work There's likely not enough between the two guys that you'd think one would drastically outperform the other in terms of total fWAR if both guys have similar playing time. And interestingly... Baseball savant has the catcher throwing metrics broken down into 5 different aspects... avg footspeed of base stealer, avg number of feet from 2b when the ball crosses the plate, total pop time, then transfer time and avg arm velo in MPH. Very cool to go through

Yeah, and everything said in the post made sense. all 3 catchers had value, all 3 had concerns attached due to injury history or lack of power. Tried catcher A, then B, then they took C. Despite the results from a team perspective, I'd still do that trade. Varsho just had like a 15th percentile outcome with the bat in 2023, that's not really something you expect to happen and still managed to be incredibly useful on the basepaths and defense. Even a return to league average with the bat and he's everything the Jays need for the next 3 seasons in CF. I'd give up a young limp noodle bat catcher with very debateable defense and 1 year of LGJ for that profile anytime.

Winning the Central is like a gold medal at the Special Olympics. Sure you won, but.....

If Vlad puts up the numbers the Jays want, he’ll get the number he wants.

All very interesting info. Would love to sign both Ohtani and YY…that would free up a trade of Kikuchi to fill another area of need while keeping Manoah and Tiedeman as the next guys up when injury hits. Signing a #5 in this market to a 1 year deal would be easy as hell after that. Weird to hear them moving on from both Barger and Orelvis as a possible 3B, but that would definitely explain their interest in bringing Chappy back or getting Candaleiro. Roden needs HR power. I hope he develops it because it’s still not showing up in results yet. Regarding the Bo and Vlad situation…yep. That’s just so typical Blue Jays. They one they want won’t sign, the one that wants to sign isn’t what they want. Manoah situation makes far more sense now.

Dunno, on one hand it makes perfect sense that you'd only blow your wad if you land the big fish, but on the other hand if you're willing to go that high for only 1 player, why not go that high anyways and maybe land 3 upper-mid guys?

Was watching mLB Network at some point in the past week and it was said the Jays have 2 budget numbers in mind for 2024, one that includes Ohtani and one that doesn't.

Saying something is a weakness of a system and could be better vs saying something is "non-existent" is not even close to the same thing. It's akin to rudimentary sales techniques that claim their product is "the best thing in the world" in order to attract attention. If thats what you need to do do get attention or to have an opinion noticed.... it probably means your opinion is worthless and without substance.

What can I say, pointless hyperbole without substance is just that....pointless.

How is it non-existent? Just because his guys don’t take up X number of spots on prospect lists every year doesn’t really mean all that much. Also, if the only way you evaluate drafting a development is if every guy drafted comes up to play for the Jays and excels, then every team in baseball sucks at drafting and development overall. Using prospects as trade bait is one aspect of a farm systems value. Jays also got 3 fWAR this season from 3 guys who combined for only like 230 PAs, none of whom even sniffed top 100 status like…ever. That doesn’t support your narrative of “non-existent” Manoah was a Cy young runner up on his second full season. not exactly “non-existent ” Also, understand I’m not saying the Jays system is stacked or anything and his drafting and development is amazing either; just that his drafting and development, while definitely an area that could use improvement, is not “non existent” by any stretch of the imagination.

AB roll call includes me, you, wilko and P2F though he doesnt post much anymore.

He'd go wherever gives him the money he wants. But...no I don't see the Jays looking for a guy like Rowdy.