John_Havok

It’s a generic kind of advice, but for Vlad it’s more like “sacrifice contact for power in X part of the zone” not everywhere.

The quick version for those not heading there: Vlad was better in 2021 than 2023 because he murdered baseballs at the top of the zone. His EV at the top of the zone last season was worse, but it was better in the lower part of the zone than 2021, though that didn’t help much. Stop trying to hit everything, take bigger cuts at the top of the zone, sacrifice some contact for power. Groundbreaking stuff really.

If that’s the case then it would also to have been only 2 years of Ramirez unless he extended. Orelvis had also just destroyed A ball and held his own at High A at 19. Hindsight is wonderful though, I mean if you knew you could extend him at what Cleveland extended him for … I would have done that deal all day every day. But for only 2 years with no extension…and giving up peanuts for Chapman instead, can’t be mad at that I could see an argument either way in hindsight. Kirk had just torn the cover off the ball in his 2021 call up, Jansen already entrenched, and a Ramirez acquisition would have taken up 3rd base where Orelvis was projected to play at that time. Trading both of them would have been defensible especially if an extension was agreed on. I wonder who the “others” were. Pearson probably. The Chappy trade was headlined by Gunnar Hoglund, Kirby Snead, Zach Logue and Kevin Smith; all complete donut holes.

BOwden is a clown. When was this supposed Ramirez deal on the table? WHy would the Jays trade for Ramirez when they had Chappy? THat pretty much shoots down that trade being on the table in the 2022/23 offseason at the same time as the Varsho trade taking place. Did he say when the deal was on the table? Context matters

40 man roster is full so a DFA is coming to make room. Could be that useless catcher they just picked up, or someone like Wes Parsons

Wilton Guerrero Jr is coming along nicely too from Vlad Srs brother Wilton Sr.

Dude has 8 or 9 kids …5 different mothers. Vlad the Impaler indeed.

No doubt. Will be interesting to follow his first full season in the minors this year depending on where he gets assigned.

Yeah. Probably gonna be the same thing this season too. LF defense just isn't as big a deal as CF. It's great to have a good one but he need to hit better no doubt.

Regardless, nearly all of IKFs value comes from defense, so keeping him playing the position he is best at defensively will be key. I'm sure they will throw him in the OF occasionally in weird situations or temporarily due to injury but the bulk of his D better be spent at 3b. That, of course, doesn't mean the most 3b time should go to him, but when he's saying he should be at the hot corner

No worries. All we are doing is our rock ‘n roll duty.

Tell me your over 50 without telling me you're over 50. Excellent reference though.

Agreed. I'm sure the people who've been running a multi-billion dollar communications empire for 30+ years need that sound nugget of business advice to finally get ahead of the curve

How would he even make it twice through the order? He's never pitched more than 105 innings combined when he was a starter in the minors and first brought up to the majors so thats an average of 3.1 innings. no way he can go 4-5 IP per start right now unless they skip him a ton and are only shooting for 20-22 or 23 starts

Fangraphs doesn't suffer from recency bias and surface level assumptions the way fans do

the Cardinals tried this with him already and failed in spectacular fashion. This seems like a weird thing to attempt again I guess the money is good enough that if he fails immediately as a starter they still have a top shelf reliever for 11M per season, but why not just forget the experiment and go that way from the jump? Seems like a plan that has far more downside than upside. I cant imagine he would even be able to hit 100 innings as a starter with his command.

Thing is, we dont even need career years from those guys for the Jays to be better in 2024. even 3 WAR Vlad from 2022 is 2 wins better than last year. Somewhere between 2021 and 2022 vlad he's 4-5 wins. Im not counting on the latter, but I think the former is a realistic expectation. A healthy Bo that doesnt miss 100 PAs like he did in 2023 still gets 4.5-5 WAR....that's another +1 win. This should be the expectation. A league average hitting Varsho is a 4-5 WAR...2-3 more wins. same as Bo, not outlandish expectations. Biggio is already a league average regular over a full season, as a backup. It would be hard to really expect more than that. IKF will be better than 2022 just because he wont be playing defense in a place where he has no value. He wont be Chappy level wins, but wont suck (at least with the glove). KK will be KK Jansen will be Jansen Espinal likely won't play enough for his numbers to move the needle one way or the other. Kirk is really the only guy there who I'm not really sure what to expect, other than being in less than good shape. Springer with even a slight regression back to his career norms would be a boon. The questions about whether or not the team is worse than 2023 I think is on the pitching staff, not the offense or defense.

True, and yeah in my list i wasn't intending to list them in order of skill. In that list it would be Cole, Stro/Cortes, Schmidt. Rodon ... at his best would be after Cole

List of all possible arb hearings coming up unless deals are made between now and then: Taylor Ward: $4.8MM in desired salary….Angels offered $4.3MM (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand) Jose Suarez: $1.35MM….Angels $925K (via Feinsand) Mauricio Dubon: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM (via Feinsand) Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $19.9MM….Blue Jays $18.05MM (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) Tommy Edman: $6.95MM….Cardinals $6.5MM (via Feinsand) J.D. Davis: $6.9MM….Giants $6.55MM (via Feinsand) Luis Arraez: $12MM….Marlins $10.6MM (via Feinsand) Tanner Scott: $5.7MM….Marlins $5.15MM (via Feinsand) Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $2.9MM….Marlins $2.625MM (via Feinsand) Phil Bickford: $900K….Mets $815K (via Feinsand) Austin Hays: $6.3MM….Orioles $5.85MM (via Feinsand) Ryan O’Hearn: $3.8MM….Orioles $3.2MM (via Feinsand) Danny Coulombe: $2.4MM….Orioles $2.2MM (via Feinsand) Cionel Perez: $1.4MM….Orioles $1.1MM (via Feinsand) Jacob Webb: $1MM….Orioles $925K (via Feinsand) Alec Bohm: $4MM….Phillies $3.4MM (via Feinsand) Adolis Garcia: $6.9MM….Rangers $5MM (via Feinsand) Harold Ramirez: $4.3MM….Rays $3.8MM (via Feinsand) Jason Adam: $3.25MM….Rays $2.7MM (via Feinsand) Jonathan India: $4MM….Reds $3.2MM (via The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmeyer) Casey Mize: $840K….Tigers $815K (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic) Nick Gordon: $1.25MM….Twins $900K (via Feinsand)

....uh no.

The arb system is broken for sure but not because a guy gets a raise after a down year. It's broken because young guys like him are chronically underpaid whilst having the best years of their careers.

Absolutely, though they let their starters go deeper than most. 3 guys with 185+ and one with 170 isnt exactly evidence of chronic early hooks.

Arb takes his entire body of work into account, not just the most recent. As much as Vlad has underachieved his skill level he's still in pretty rarified air when it comes to his numbers over the first 4 years of service time.

Well the halfway point of those numbers is 19 million so if those are the real numbers that are going to and arb hearing...I don't see it going the Jays way with his overall HR totals

Even without injury luck they'll be tough. Cole, Cortez, Schmidt and Stro is a legit top 4 without even thinking about Rodon. What's going to suck extra hard is when the Yanks sign Hader.