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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    How did Cooke look? From listening on the radio Shulman and Davidi sounded like he looked great
  2. John_Havok
    3rd. He had two misplays yesterday
  3. John_Havok
    Maybe a 2 year 55ish million kind of thing with an opt out after 1. After the Belli signing it’s a pretty good guess that he is going to sign something similar but probably for less AAV.
  4. John_Havok
    On the contrary, teams value defense far more than nerds do. They just realize they don’t have to pay top dollar for it.
  5. John_Havok
    and is 5 years older and massacred by injuries in 2023. How is that in any way some kind of a defense of Bellinger?
  6. John_Havok
    Which is exactly why he shouldn't expect to be paid like he's the hitter he was pre-injury.
  7. John_Havok
    Its not a "penalty" for extra contact. It's assigning limited value to the extra contact that doesn't get hit hard... meaning it's not all that useful and doesn't translate to a lot of actual runs on the board. If you think he;s worth more than ~20 million per year, that means you think he will at least somewhat revert back to his pre-injury numbers when he literally murdered baseballs. He would also have to be counted on for 630+ PA per season. That's a really big gamble given his lack of hard contact. Improvement in K rate isn't a big deal when all you're doing is slapping singles all over the place instead of hitting dingers. his K rate was better in 2023 than his monster 2019. But there are massive differences in walk rate(its exactly half) and ISO (.218 vs .324) All he did in 2023 was repeat his 2020 season but with a better babip.
  8. John_Havok
    When you don't hit ball hard much you not worth the top money and long term. 4/80 is not top money nor long term and would be a fine market value deal given his ok floor and decent shot at 2.5-3 fWAR.
  9. John_Havok
    no, I'm not. You still don't even know what you're arguing with. I'll be glad to spell it out for you in single syllable words and really short sentences if you like.
  10. John_Havok
    NO doubt. Its not often you see a guy on second score on a sac fly
  11. John_Havok
    He does have crap underlying metrics in the ones that actually correlate well to continued offensive production. Please don't pretend to know more than you do just because you looked at his savant page and saw some red in some categories like contact rate and whiff rate.
  12. John_Havok
    Somethings been bothering me all game long about Shulman's pbp... i finally figured out why. He sounds alot like Matt Vasgersian, and I cant stand Vasgersian
  13. John_Havok
    Very good speed. Decent player with some good skills, but ... strikes out too much with not enough pop
  14. John_Havok
    This isnt very evident based on your comments that you are surprised that I would sign Bellinger to a market value deal despite his crap underlying metrics.
  15. John_Havok
    They haven't been poorly managed overall. They just haven't got over the hump, the hardest part to do.
  16. John_Havok
    Not really. I can see you don't understand the current economics of the game. ~20 million per year is about his market value. I wouldn't want to go past 4 years given his age and the risk of his crap underlying numbers further reducing the bat value. The elite D and baserunning are a decent floor to rely on that even if he turns into KK with the bat, the length and AAV isn't an albatross. the likely 8/200 he is asking for is just stupid.
  17. John_Havok
    YEah that was a poor effort on the Phillies' 1b, should have been a DP
  18. John_Havok
    Meh, defense let him down, couple of dribblers that snuck through, terrible contact went for an IF hit. Could have been out of it with no damage pretty easily. Slider was inconsistent.
  19. John_Havok
    Some Pearson #'s... Max velo on FB was 99.6, lowest was 95.6, avg 96.8 - not bad for his first spring appearance to be 1 mph lower than his season avg in 2023. FB zone rate was 71%. 14 thrown, 8 swings, 1 miss. 2 called strikes. CB - 5 thrown, 0 swings, 60% zone rate but only 2 called strikes so blue missed one for him Slider - 6 thrown, 50% zone rate, 2 swings, no misses. splitter - 1 thrown, 1 swing and miss out of the zone.
  20. John_Havok
    IKF - 102.5 EV on that RBI single
  21. John_Havok
    Sweet spot ... contact rate... xba, whiff rate and k rate. Sweet spot doesnt really mean much... and the other 4 are all basically interrealated. they also dont combine well with 33rd chase rate and 27th percentile walk rate. WHat good is a great contact rate when your exit velo is 22nd percentile(1.2 mph ahead of Keirmaier) hard hit rate is 10th percentile, and barrel rate is 27th percentile? Great you make a ton of s*** contact, but don't walk a lot, though you do hit for a nearly empty average with 57th percentile xSLG and 53rd percentile xwOBA. COuple that with elite D and baserunning. THat's not a guy that you sign long term. That's a guy that could easily be KK in 2 years. Would I sign him shorter term? yup. 20 million AAV, sure. But not much longer than 3-4 years.
  22. John_Havok
    Yeah, i gave up trying to really predict what a FO will or won't do since i have about 0.05% of the information they do. Trying to rationalize moves after the fact to understand their mindset is a bit easier. It's obvious what the Jays need position-wise, but its also obvious they can't just cut a blank check to anyone we think might fit those needs. Sure, would be nice to have Chapman back, or Bellinger given the current alternatives in house, but knowing what you need is about the first 1% of the job and is so obvious even the comments section on Sportsnet could get it right about 25% of the time. Chappy and Bellinger are interesting specifically because they have the same problem, as a result of totally opposite problems. Neither can get the long term contract they want, because people are skeptical their results won't sustain; Bellinger's because of s*** underlying numbers and Chapman because his s*** results haven't matched great underlying numbers. The great D from both isn't enough to hang the long term big money deal on.
  23. John_Havok
    The fans job is to either buy tickets ...or not. Buy merch...or not. Watch the game on TV, or not. Stream it...or not. That's how fans express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction. Don't consume it and it will change. Keep consuming it while whining on message boards or comments sections....nothing changes.
  24. John_Havok
    I think my overall point is that the AAV of 1b isn't going to be a 30 million+ payday like some may think even if he does have 2 back to back good years. He would have to have back to back MVP caliber years and show drastic improvement in defense to allow that to even enter the conversation
  25. John_Havok
    Tiedeman is starting the spring opener
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