Jump to content
Jays Centre
  • Create Account

John_Havok

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,897

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    17

 Content Type 

Profiles

Toronto Blue Jays Videos

2026 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking

Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker

News

2026 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    I also agree that the arbitration system is rather stupid. But, the reason I generally don't have a problem with how players usually gets raises, is because of how little they earn when they're in their prime years doing a lot of heavy lifting for league minimum. And those big overpaid contracts are usually only going to superstars now, largely thanks to analytics. FOs aren't breaking the bank for average players and the 2 WAR veterans are usually left with whatever they can get.
  2. John_Havok
    Really? Even using 5 million per win... in either season...doing the math suggests Vlad's value would be 30% of 5 million. I'm admittedly too lazy to look up what the actual win value was for 2019...but league minimum salary was 555,000. 30% of 5 million is 1.5 million. Being paid about a 3rd of what you're worth could certainly qualify as drastically underpaid. And if the value a win was higher than 5 million it just gets worse ... I know that's not really the spirit of your argument, but the fact remains a disproportionate number of wins in MLB is generated by ayers in their first 3 years of service time, while.being drastically underpaid at league minimum. That's the basis for those new bonus pools. It's still extremely tilted, but it's a step in the right direction.
  3. John_Havok
    He pitched well. Didn't have his usual stuff or command and still managed a QS against a good hitting lineup.
  4. John_Havok
    I'll let you know the answer when your post finishes loading
  5. John_Havok
    But vlad isn't really overpaid .... and was severely underpaid in years 1, 2, 3, less so in 4, and is trending to be severely underpaid in year 5. But that's a separate argument. They're allowed to use publicly available stats, with limits. They can't use any statcast stuff But yes, the reason it's not getting fixed is because the owners benefit faaaaaaaaaar more often than they get boned. This last CBA negitiation proved that
  6. John_Havok
    Its just because of the stats that get used, and remember the arbitrators aren't exactly baseball nerds. I bet if you lined up the traditional stats like hits, HRs, RBIs ... etc etc, they'd all be in the same general area heading into their final arb year.
  7. John_Havok
    it's hard to say. The limited samples could go either way. 2023 in 42 chances, he was -1 OAA 2024 in 62 chances he's +3. So +2 in 104 chances, which is just not a lot of chances to go on. To put it in perspective, Bo has 239 chances in 2024 and was a +1 OAA, so the variance in outcomes for Clement could swing pretty far one way or the other with full time reps.
  8. John_Havok
    Yep. Its pretty easy to ballpark what he will get given the precedent of the those 4 guys.
  9. John_Havok
    Bout the same time all of that info became instantly accessible in real time?
  10. John_Havok
    Excellent. Now go hire the genius in the Rays org at the same level, give him a fake promotion title and pay him whatever he wants to join Toronto.
  11. John_Havok
    Don't have to look that far in house, Orelvis hit 28 at age 19 in a single season split between A and A+. 98 games, 2021.
  12. John_Havok
    It's not based on nonsense. Just like you saw them pull Francis in his last start, likely because of his dip in velocity and his own admitted fatigue. The same is probably true for Yariel who averaged 94.7 mph on the 4 seamer in June, but only averaged 93.6 in August. Fatigue for a guy who didn't throw a single competitive pitch in 2023 other than the WBC is a virtual certainty. If you want to quibble over calling it an "innings limit" vs a "he's clearly fatiguing at this point so maybe we should back off slightly since a tired arm is far more injury prone than a healthy arm" fact of his circumstance...sure.
  13. John_Havok
    All of this back and forth can pretty be summed up as: If there's a skillset that could still succeed despite obvious flaws at 18 years old, it would be Nimmala's. Doesn't mean he will of course but...
  14. John_Havok
    My guess is he's really close to his innings limit. Remember he didn't pitch at all last year. Up to 88.2 IP now this season. Probaby have him scheduled for around 100 IP, 4 starts left with regular rotation...so, probably 3 IP each for his last few starts
  15. John_Havok
    Not sure why they kept calling sliders...he'd alreafy whiffed on the high inside fastball a few pitches earlier. Should have gone back there
  16. John_Havok
    Agree. But Wagner has a pretty legit so far. And let's not forget about Orelvis. They still need to fill out the top of the lineup though. Need Bo to bounce back (if not traded) amd a near Vlad equivalent or better up there. There's none of those in house. Right now the lineup has 1 feared hitter and a lot of good enough to get by. I really hope August Horwitz shows up for 2025, that would be ideal. Power actually surfaced.
  17. John_Havok
    Ohtani, Betts and Freeman went back to back to back to open the game against Arizona. First time in franchise history to start the game with 3 HRs.
  18. John_Havok
    It's also called sarcasm.
  19. John_Havok
    Looks legit
  20. John_Havok
    I'd put Loperfido in there too, but he's got more work to do. Wagner, Clement, Horwitz, Jimenez...they're the high floor low ceiling guys. Not stars, not scrubs. Good guys to have to slide in whenever you need. Won't kill you, but won't be difference makers long term. That said, if I had to rank those 4 in terms of who would have the best chance of exceeding those expectations, probably Wagner, Horwitz, Clement and then Leo.
  21. John_Havok
    Lukes ceiling is a 4th OF. He has virtually no useable power. 2300 PAs in the minors and just over 40 HRs. He's not a guy to worry about. Just look at his minor league track record and it's not a big revelation as to why he's never got a shot. At age appropriate levels in the upper minors he's been an average hitter with no pop. Age 22 at AA...wRC + of 101 with an ISO of .095 Age 23 at AA, improved to a whopping 107 wRC+, ISO .122 24, AAA, 57 wRC+, ISO 100. That was 2019, 2020 wiped out by COVID. 2021, Now 26, back at AAA, 115 wRC+, ISO .153. Literally nothing to be excited about. This is when he dumped by the Rays. Jays grabbed him for 2022, AAA, 27...111 and .140 Pure vanilla.
  22. John_Havok
    Kikuchi shoved again for the Astros, 12 k over 7 innings vs The Royals. Griffin Conine splashed his first career HR into the bay at San Fran.
  23. John_Havok
    If you're worried that Lukes was somehow a hidden gem that just didn't get a fair shot at the 4th OF role...why?
  24. John_Havok
    Sure, but Roden surely wouldn't be in the running for a 4th OF in 2025 given that he doesnt play CF. He'd be a guy that would be moreso in the running for a fulltime corner OF gig if the power comes around, which ... while improving, still isn't where it needs to be.
  25. John_Havok
    Roden isn't on the 40 man, Lukes is. Probably his last chance to look good enough for a 4th OF role.
×
×
  • Create New...