Grant77
-
Posts
9,932 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Content Type
Profiles
Toronto Blue Jays Videos
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking
Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Grant77
-
ST GDT: Jays vs Orioles (March 15 at 1:07 ET)
Grant77 replied to G-Snarls's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Gibby would be correct in doing so. Sanchez has a career 2.93 FIP in the 'pen and Storen projects for a 3.57 FIP this year. More strikeouts don't change the fact that Storen is a markedly worse reliever. Righties hit .147/.222/.175 against Sanchez and have never hit a HR or 3B, that's including as a starter. He and Cecil are as deadly as any pairing in MLB if deployed correctly. Will they be? I'd say not usually, but you never know. -
There's no evidence that Treinen is a 'failed starter'. He looked pretty good in both the majors and minors, but didn't have a spot in that Strasburg-Scherzer-Zimmermann-Gonzalez rotation. Britton had a 4.25 FIP as a starter, hardly terrible. I think he could have improved there if they gave him more time, but he's been an asset in the bullpen too.
-
You do know what a starting pitcher is right? Sanchez gets 66.7% groundballs as a reliever and throws harder so you'd have to use an entirely new set of parameters if you want to judge him as a reliever. You're comparing of apples to oranges does nothing to alter the fact that he's got an extremely rare skillset for a starter. You can bitch about sample size all you want, but you still didn't come up with any starting pitchers after lowering the sample. We already knew Sanchez threw hard and got a ton of grounders before he entered the league. Two seasons later, none of that should be surprising.
-
Let's test your theory. I start in 2002 where fangraphs started tracking velocity and make an exhaustive list of pitchers who average 94+ on their fastball and get over 58% groundballs. Ready? Here's the exhaustive list: 1. Aaron Sanchez That's right, there's nobody else. You can lower it to 93 if you think he loses velocity, still nobody. Hell, I could only find one individual season in that timeframe and that was 2007 Felix Hernandez. There just aren't many pitchers with 3 key things that Sanchez possesses. Those are stamina (maintains 94+ up to 100 pitches), extreme groundball ability, and great velocity. The strikeouts are a concern. The walks are a concern. If you doubt that he is capable of fixing it though, look at his command in relief. I don't expect a big change, but there's some potential improvement to be had. Let's not waste a unique talent, especially with that all gold glove caliber infield D that we have.
-
His D alone has always been worth a lot. I always said if he found an average bat then he'd be worth 3+ WAR.
-
If you seriously believe that for every single player than I have nothing else to say to you. I prefer critical thinking over your mentality any day of the week.
-
The are NOT many pitchers that fit this profile. That's the point you need to understand. I'm on my phone so can't check, but starters that get 60% ground balls are very rare. Ones that throw 95+ are almost non-existent. Quality of contact is not adequately accounted for in projections. It will be someday, but you need to consider it with an extreme outlier like Sanchez.
-
You compared him to Halladay and Carpenter and I'm the one with no knowledge....right.
-
I see one pitch that is very similar and some other things, but I don't think it means that Sanchez can't be a good starter. For one thing, he can maintain a ~94 mph fastball as a starter. I can't say for sure, but I presume League couldn't do that or we would have tried him as a starter.
-
Most likely a high K guy like Chapman or Robertson if I had to guess.
-
One projection system isn't going to work for every single player. The point is to be aware of the flaws in the system for players with certain skill sets and adjust accordingly. There have been multiple articles on how Marco Estrada and Chris Young break FIP, for example. You don't have to be a genius, it's just a matter of taking the time to look at everything and make logical conclusions.
-
Let's just ignore the fact that League gives up twice as much hard contact and cherry pick numbers that look similar! I bow to your brilliance.
-
They have one f***ing stat in common, that doesn't make them alike. Sanchez uses a power 98 mph sinker to get outs and rather wild at times. Janssen was a finesse pitcher with multiple good pitches. Sanchez gets an elite number of groundballs, Janssen was closer to average. Somebody like Zach Britton is a much better comparable. If you believe that projection systems work for every player then I'll have to play you at fantasy ball sometime. You have to be awfully naive to just take the numbers at face value. It's been stated many times on analytics sites that they don't accurately account for the type of contact a pitcher gets. At least not yet. The smartest people take these numbers look at the big picture, using them to come up with their own projection. Obviously baseball people are on the Sanchez side or they wouldn't have ranked him so highly as a prospect and the Jays wouldn't keep giving him chances to start. They know what they have, whatever the reasons are.
-
2001 for me. Spanky and hurl might be earlier.
-
There will be some dissenting opinions from those who rely too much on UZR, but I think Hechavarria turned out just fine. Nobody expected more than a decent bat and elite D.
-
I haven't even mentioned ERA in this thread. Why do you completely ignore batted ball data? As an elite performer in this regard, it is extremely important to look at with Sanchez. He's nothing at all like Casey Janssen. I am bringing other information to the table to paint a more complete picture of his performance. I am not ignoring his control issues or swinging strike issues. By pigeonholing on one stat (K/BB) and ignoring the complete picture, you are doing the very thing that you accuse me of. It gave me a good laugh though, thank you.
-
Look at other stats for god sakes. Swinging strikes are a concern, but you guys are so hung up on two or three metrics that you can't see the big picture. Some of this has been mentioned, but I'll reiterate. His fastball IS elite. His wFB/c was 4th in the league last year amongst relievers. The guy is impossible to hit in relief. His hard% is a paltry 14.1%, the best in the league by a wide margin. Sam Dyson is the next closest at 18.4% and the list is a who's who of great relievers. O'Day, Smith, Britton, Betances. Brandon League has never approached this level of unhittability (made up word) and his career mark sits at 27%, nearly double.
-
He's exceeded the low end of your probable outcome for 2 seasons now. His SP potential is yet to be determined, but expecting him to take a huge step back from what he's already done is relief is awfully foolish.
-
Also, what's with the bottom 2 options? He's been an elite reliever over 60 innings, period. Maybe that changes, but he can't be a bust, it's already in the books.
-
I believe he is a viable MLB starter, disregarding the extraneous number labels. He's already at least this good with some potential: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=412&position=P
-
ST GDT: Rays @ Jays (March 13, 1:05 ET)
Grant77 replied to Spanky99's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
How is 3 even an option? That hasn't been true since shortly after his MLB debut. -
So am I. Just randomly came across it and posted.
-
Ken Fidlin says Sanchez is out of options: http://www.torontosun.com/2016/03/12/options-options-options-roster-decisions-ahead-for-blue-jays
-
I saw that, but I also saw him get 2 strikeouts and some weak contact on the change. I know I'll get flak for this, but let's bring our best pitchers north. He's an elite reliever and putting him in AAA for any reason is just stupid. I suspect we'd even be in some hot water with the player's union if we tried it. People are incredibly hung up on K/BB, but look at this and tell me he isn't a huge weapon out of the 'pen. That's not luck. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=50&type=2&season=2015&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,a
-
I don't subscribe to the notion that pitchers can easily make changes to their pitches during a season, or that AAA is a better place to do so, especially for a pitcher who has experienced significant success in the majors. He had all winter to make changes to his third pitch and it looks pretty good.