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Grant77

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Everything posted by Grant77

  1. Grant77
    Literacy and IQ are strongly correlated. Of course having poor literacy doesn't make you stupid, but there's a much higher probability.
  2. Grant77
    B.S. He could put up a 2.5 ERA in 50 innings and nobody should be surprised at all.
  3. Grant77
    Last post here: I didn't say Marcus Stroman can't succeed. I obviously want him to succeed. The team says he is 5'8 and pitchers that short have found limited success in the majors, a clear and obvious fact. The best pitchers anyone has come up with are disappointing based on the sample size. These pitchers (Norman, Shantz, Phoebus) have found some success, but have spent significant amounts of time in the bullpen. What does this mean? Why does it happen? I don't know. What we all should know is that history repeats itself. The odds are against Stroman, let's hope he continues to defy them. He's sure looked good so far even with the missed season due to injury.
  4. Grant77
    Bluejays.com and baseball-reference both have him listed as 5'8. I'm not going to play these games with you. We can argue over semantics with Fred Norman, but he missed large chunks of multiple seasons for one reason for another and never had a single season out of 16 where he didn't pitch in relief.
  5. Grant77
    Marcus Stroman is listed as 5'8. What part of 5'8 and under don't you understand? You can't change the facts just to add players to your sample and make it look like you are right. My grandpa was at that game by the way, tells me about it all of the time.
  6. Grant77
    What the hell is the point of using 2015? We don't know what the pitchers have done yet. One year and one sample doesn't definitively prove anything, but the fact that I find the same pattern in every year I look sure as hell does. Let's look at it another way, every pitcher who has ever played in the modern era: 885 of 8303, or more than 4 out of every 39 pitchers, have had at least 150 major league starts. That number doesn't include any pitcher currently in the majors who will reach that mark and does include hundreds of position players and whatnot. It's a certainty that the number would higher, but by how much I don't know. Either way, it proves that your statement was wrong.
  7. Grant77
    I said 5'8, I didn't say 5'10.
  8. Grant77
    I agree.
  9. Grant77
    Here's the list if you want to look for yourself. He's number 46, but there are doubles, so he's actually 38. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2006-standard-pitching.shtml Alphabetical order seemed like a pretty fair way to get a random sample of 39 pitchers at any given time. If you want me to go the other way you get: Barry Zito, Carlos and Victor Zambrano, Chris Young, Kerry Wood, Randy Wolf, C.J. Wilson, Dontrelle Willis Woody Williams, Jake Westbrook, David Wells, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, Jeff Weaver...
  10. Grant77
    Bobby Shantz had exactly one full season as a starter... You actually notice a very common trend with guys like him, Fred Norman, and Tom Phoebus. Injuries and transition to the bullpen. Maybe there's a reason for it.
  11. Grant77
    More than zero I would imagine. I went back to 2006 and found these names in the first 39 alphabetical pitchers: Armas, Arroyo, Astacio, Baker, Beckett, Bedard, and Benson.
  12. Grant77
    A good pitcher's build and downward plane are boxes on scout's SP list. That isn't to say he's not a great pitcher or won't succeed. Only select hall of famers check off every box.
  13. Grant77
    7 cm is an awful lot at that end of the bell curve. Someone who professes to understand statistics as well as you do should understand that. I'm not trying to dismiss Stroman's chances obviously, but it's just a legitimate point to keep in mind. Maybe this is career path: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phoebto01.shtml I believe he's the best starter ever standing 5'8 or less.
  14. Grant77
    I can't completely dismiss the fact that no pitcher as short as Stroman has ever had sustained success as a starter. There have been plenty of pitchers that short, but they all end up in the bullpen or get hurt. I'm not going to pretend to know the exact reason, but I don't make a habit of betting on guys to be the only exception over a 100+ year period.
  15. Grant77
    Thor is more valuable than Stro and Miller combined.
  16. Grant77
    Is this a contract structure thing, or is this a media creation? If there is no difference, why would teams change the way they sign contracts?
  17. Grant77
    I'm probably just getting old and don't like new things, but I just don't understand the impetus for the sudden change. The player option way described it perfectly in the first place.
  18. Grant77
    Educated guesses can be made with any size sample, the accuracy is just lower. As I said, it's unlikely that a true talent lefty masher would put up a reverse split in 700 at-bats. Not impossible, but no MLB team would see him as that type of player.
  19. Grant77
    Anyone with a career .314/.350/.436 line against lefties has some real value on the right team. I'm not overstating his value, you're just being obtuse about it. As for Colabello, a reverse split in 700 at-bats lends itself to a strong possibility that he's not simply a lefty masher. I'd be surprised if you could locate more than 1 or 2 examples of a true lefty masher with a stretch like that. You don't need definitive data to make educated conclusions.
  20. Grant77
    Chris Johnson had real value in his prime, especially in a platoon role. Colabello has much more power, walks more, and doesn't have a platoon split, so I don't think it's a very good comp in that respect.
  21. Grant77
    Batted ball data tells us that this isn't exactly true. Colabello hits a lot more line drives and goes opposite field more often, which should help his BABIP. Only 13 qualified hitters had a LD% of 25 or higher and a lot of the other guys were BABIP monsters as well (Kipnis, Miggy, Votto). Another .400+ BABIP is out of the question, but Chris Johnson has a career .357 mark with the same batted ball profile, so there are exceptions. I wouldn't be that surprised if he put up a high mark in the .330 to .340 range in 2016.
  22. Grant77
    Not necessarily. We don't know what a normal BABIP is for Colabello and his D could be above average.
  23. Grant77
    I'll take the Jays in a World Series matchup against those lefties. Not that we're better, but it's a nice matchup.
  24. Grant77
    Just a random weird stat: July was the only month where Colabello struck out less than 25% (21.4), but also the only month where he failed to hit .300 (.224). He also had his highest walk rate (8.9) and a typically strong .204 ISO in that month.
  25. Grant77
    I know this will never happen, but it's just my opinion: You say this about more than baseball, but it's not. Major League Baseball's role is to provide the consumer with entertainment. The criminal justice system's role is determine guilt and punish accordingly, based on the morals of the populous. We all have our complaints about each, but they are both the best at what they do. If you don't think that players are punished appropriately then there are political tools at your disposal to ensure that this changes. It's a testament to the stupidity of our society that we demand of sports leagues what we don't demand of politicians. I heard next to nothing about domestic violence in both the Canadian and American electoral campaigns in terms of public concerns and that is sad.
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