Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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Neil Walker is a great fit. Getting pricey for the Pirates. 1/$10M for a slightly above average player is already pushing it for them, and to extend him they'd probably have to make him their most expensive player which is just crazy.
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King: Cingrani was pretty close to untradeable by JFAS in the BBDL around this time last year Dinger: It's like looking into Carrasco's future!
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Robert Murray @RobertMurrayBBE 39s40 seconds ago The #Yankees are "searching hard" for a second baseman, an industry source said. What the hell is wrong with a Refsnyder/Ackley platoon?
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lol
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Remains possible but his 2015 seemed like a huge step back. The peripherals were worse, the DIPS took a big step back, the slider no longer looked like a standout swing-and-miss pitch, the fastball command was terrible. And the second straight year with a big ERA-FIP is at the very least not exactly comforting. I still think he's fine... just not sure how fine. I think in a year we've gone from hoping that he can stick as a #3 SP to hoping that he can stick in the rotation.
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Navarro vs. Thole is really a false dichotomy. Thole is total garbage who's given Toronto three nothing seasons, and he had a 74 wRC+ in frigging AAA last year. He'll get DFA'd at some point and might even be so bad that he'll accept an outright assignment to Buffalo. It's Navarro vs. sign or trade for whoever is available.
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The fact that he's had TJS isn't a huge deal to me on its own, it's just a thing in his past that deserves some consideration and it is well known that past injury is a significant factor in predicting future injury. I don't like the look of his mechanics. That's the meat and potatoes of my opinion. Toronto's developmental decisions with him also imply that they don't really think much of him as a starter. And let it be known to all that I am well practiced as an amateur pitching mechanics analyst.
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I'm not going to pretend that I know enough about pitching mechanics to have strong opinions about something like this, but I think his mechanics aren't conducive to being a starting pitcher. He's already had the TJS once and I think Toronto probably agrees with me or else they wouldn't have called him up this season and stuck him in the pen. Might be wrong though.
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hi welcome who are you i like you please stay
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Well right now it's Hutch. This is just assuming they add one more quality arm. Hopefully someone to at least slot into the #2 slot, like Samardzija or Kuma. Bump Hutch to Buffalo to work on some s*** and get his swing and miss slider back to form. Sign someone like Trevor Cahill for the MLB long relief / SP depth role. Then you're dancin' Stroman Kuma/Smardjz Dickey Estrada Chavez Hutch/Cahill Cahill/Hutch Flip some rocks over for interesting minor league contract dudes to fill the #8 and #9 positions on the totem. Personally I think Sanchez and Osuna should just be left in the pen, for good. Sanchez for talent reasons and Osuna for injury risk reasons.
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Yeah you're right. Agree entirely. I kind of forgot the extent to which Dickey controls contact + the value of the Dickey effect. Main point being that Hutch is clearly behind Chavez, and if anyone should be looked at as the #6 it's Drew.
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If you organize Toronto's rotation by projected talent (Steamer600), Jesse Chavez actually slots into the #2 slot behind Stroman. Of course Steamer is probably way off on Estrada. I think Chavez is certainly better than Hutchison, probably better than Dickey, and maybe better than Estrada.
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4.00 FIP = comfortably above average starting pitcher. Like, 2.5 WAR in 200 innings. Mark Buehrle as a Blue Jays had a 4.01 FIP and amassed 7.5 fWAR in 3 years. Getting that for 4.7 million dollars is a pretty big chunk of surplus value
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Trading Ubaldo to jays_fever for Harold Ramirez
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Miller and Teheran are s***
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omg plz unquote so I can remove all traces of this egregious mistake
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Lindback outperforming Mike Smith who happens to now be hurt. Pleeeeaaaaasssseeeee let me waiver draft my way to a 3rd starting goalie.
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GD's point is the WE should never think about pitch framing as affecting a pitcher's value, because we know better. That it influences FIP can be thought of as a flaw in FIP, really. There's no sense in giving a pitcher credit for a catcher's skill. That Chavez and Hendriks are switching between Vogt/Phegley and Russell Martin has no bearing on their trade values or the trade.
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Right - an enormous amount of good/elite relievers in the game are basically reclamation projects. The best reliever in the 2nd best pen (Fields in Houston) was a rule 5 pick. The closer in the 3rd best pen (Miller) was traded for nothing to Boston, non-tendered and then re-signed. The closer and best reliever in the 4th best pen (Rondon - Cubs) was a rule 5 pick.
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1. Do the entire calculation. Assuming zero decline (not a great assumption) Hendriks is 3.8 WAR for maybe $10M total in four years. $16.6M surplus. Chavez is 2.0 WAR for $4.7M. So $9.3M surplus. So the gap is like $7M between their total values. 2. Consider whether wins in 2016 are worth more to Toronto than wins in 2017-2019. (they are) 3. Consider what Toronto's positional needs are. (SP) 4. Recognize that park/division effects don't change a normal player's value. (to mention that Chavez is going from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park and imply that this could affect his WAR is beneath your intellect) 5. Avoid flippantly mentioning Chavez' durability concerns. (this seems to have no basis; could say similar things about Hendriks talent due to short track record) It's possible to play with these little value calculation exercises in a bunch of different ways in order to make trades look good or bad. In this case, the value gap between Chaves and Hendriks is pretty small and contextual/situational reasons probably mitigate most/all of the value gap. I gave my little surplus value opinion earlier in the thread.
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To clarify the "trash pile" thing, since anecdotes don't help anyone. It's possible to find good hitters in the trash pile. It's a bit easier to find good starters in the trash pile. It's easiest to find good relievers in the trash pile. The "fungibility" level of an asset affects its value, obviously.
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Much of this post is hogwash and you know it
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Isn't Angel Perdomo eligible? He signed in 2011. Surprised Toronto didn't protect him and Andy Burns. Perdomo is exactly the type of guy that gets picked. A lefty that throws hard. I don't really see the point in protecting DSJ. Pretty bad numbers for a corner outfield prospect. Toronto can also get Wuilmer Becerra back if they want... lol
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Doesn't sound like Oakland sees him as a SP or swing man at all. Susan SlusserVerified account @susanslusser David Forst tells me #Athletics definitely see Hendriks as a reliever and as a back-end of the bullpen reliever, definite set-up material. Public opinion can be pretty bad/wrong about sports trades. The Marlins trade probably would have polled an 85% approval rating with that audience.
