IMO every healthy #1 upside arm leapfrogs him, which means he slots in probably @ 21 behind Anderson Espinoza for me.
I think you can argue for him even being worse
I think in the most optimistic ranking you put him after Glasnow and Giolito, so 15th overall. You're talking comparable ceilings but Glasnow and Giolito's warts aren't as big as fresh TJS.