Laika

The first two picks have already been posted here so I think the draft order / spreadsheet just needs to be put together?

My comments were directed more towards Grant, who was essentially sub-posting me by saying that money would be "wasted" on guys like Quintana and Richards, if it comes to that. I think the team would still benefit quite a bit from an SP4 type, regardless of whether or not they can reel in a big top-of-the-rotation fish. Depth is a function of quantity and quality. The Jays do have more names of some quality than they have had in some years, which is good.

People saying the depth is fine and the Jays only need one front of the rotation arm are not appreciating the risk profile of the current depth chart. This is NOT good depth behind a couple of bankable mid rotation horses. This is NOT good depth behind a Ace and the old reliable Tanner Roark. Ryu - injury risk, doesn’t chew innings regardless Pearson - injury and performance risk Ray - sucked in 2020 Roark - sucked so hard in 2020 he doesn’t deserve a rotation spot Stripling - sucked in 2020 Kay - sucked in 2020 Hatch - wasn’t even necessarily a good reliever last year, at least by some peripherals Borucki - see Hatch’s note. Troubling walk rate. Also an injury risk. Merryweather - there are multiple nails in his SP coffin now, right? Murphy - prospect with big injury risks and other issues (delivery history) Zeuch - zoinks.... Thornton - obvious note Murray/Manoah/Woods-Richardson - not realistic to count on them I like most of the above players and think some of them will be good, even in 2020, but c’mon. Nobody should want to just be rolling out Stripling, Roark, and Ray as uncontested starters right out of spring training. In an ideal world those three are competing for starts behind Ryu, a healthy Pearson, a pitcher about as good as Ryu, and someone decent and reliable. In an ideal world Toronto has the luxury of not trying to keep all of Merryweather, Borucki, and Hatch as starters. Some of them might benefit from role clarity A lot of the young SP guys who saw time in 2020 deserve for the sake of their development several turns in AAA as regular starters

I think they will try to add two more SP. Someone like Shoemaker/Smyly/Archer on a one year deal, and then someone for the top part of the rotation. They will try for Bauer, Paxton etc. but it might not work out if the stars don't align. If they don't end up with a big fish I think they'll still add someone for the middle of the rotation, maybe someone like Odorizzi or a veteran like Garrett Richards or Quintana on a pillow contract. Stripling and Ray can come out of the pen if the Jays are blessed with not facing injuries in spring. They don't necessarily need to be penciled into the starting 5. Same for Roark...

But why would you even do that? This is a baseball contract. We have WAR projections, performance histories, and reasonable ideas of what the cost of a win is. Game theory is not applicable and nobody needs a decision matrix to realize that a contract could either work out or not work out.

What assertion?

3 quarters of the time it works every time #gametheory #economics #seriousbrains

This is some galaxy brain stuff. If Toronto is good in spite of a bad Ray the contract will still be bad. There’s minimal risk, but if he sucks it’s a roster spot and $8M that could have gone to a better pitcher. I love the deal but we don’t need fuzzy Jim logic to justify it

Fantastic deal

Bichette's arm is at least a grade better and would be fine at 3B. Bichette is likely better than Biggio at any infield position. They would probably keep Biggio at 2B in this scenario because he's comfortable/fine/experienced there. And for Bo SS --> 3B can be an easier transition than SS --> 2B.

Nordekes are 100% taking Lafreniere so you can put the first prospect pick on the board. Question - do we typically have to cut any excess prospects before the draft or can we when our picks come up?

I would not. Biggio is a pre-prime, 3 WAR player (conservatively) with half a decade of control left. The Indians brass would be doing cartwheels if they landed him for Lindor.

Oof. Tough. Certainly not Biggio. I think Lourdes has a year of control over Teo. Teo has the higher offensive upside but Lourdes probably has more defensive potential. And the offensive ceiling gap might not be huge. Honestly, I might not do any of them unless there is an extension

I think that’s intentional. He will make 6 waiver picks or just add someone later

Just fill him up with one of each pick type when he comes up

Just give me the best prospect pick from here on. I’m done

Bro wants the two highest waiver picks

(pick 129, row 130 in sheet) Scion - prospect #49 Laika - Martin Kaut Laika - John Beecher Scion - waiver #50 BTS - waiver #51 King - prospect #51 Les Nordekes - Malcolm Subban (to NHL roster, not minors) Les Nordekes - waiver #52 King - prospect #53 BTS - waiver #53 Scion - prospect #55 Laika - Tim Liljegren (please demote him) Laika - prospect #60 Scion BTS King Les Nordekes Les Nordekes

King sniped two goalies on me this draft. I wanted the Rangers dude but thought I could let him slide one more turn. Then I wanted the Buffalo prospect to sort of handcuff Ullmark long-term. Oh well. I actually think Giorgiev might have been the last pick in this draft with any real value. Maybe one of the higher draft picks shortly thereafter.

(pick 129, row 130 in sheet) Scion - prospect #49 Laika - Martin Kaut Laika - John Beecher Scion - waiver #50 BTS - waiver #51 King - prospect #51 Les Nordekes - Malcolm Subban (to NHL roster, not minors) Les Nordekes - waiver #52 King BTS Scion Laika Laika Scion BTS King Les Nordekes Les Nordekes

Yeah it's probably irrelevant. Nothing has any real value and it's been that way for a while.

(pick 129, row 130 in sheet) Scion - prospect #49 Laika - Martin Kaut Laika - John Beecher Scion - waiver #50 BTS King Les Nordekes Les Nordekes King BTS Scion Laika Laika Scion BTS King Les Nordekes Les Nordekes

Cram Kaut into the minors pleeeeeasse

(pick 129, row 130 in sheet) Scion - prospect #49 Laika - Martin Kaut Laika - John Beecher Scion BTS King Les Nordekes Les Nordekes King BTS Scion Laika Laika Scion BTS King Les Nordekes Les Nordekes

BTS Brady Skjei Scion Eric Stall Laika Waiver 37 Laika Jonathan Dahlen Scion Isac Lundestrom BTS Silfverberg King Brayden Tracey Les Nordekes Hank Les Nordekes Prospect #39 King Prospect #44 BTS Waiver #44 Scion Laika Laika Scion BTS King