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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    I mean true talent projection, looking at his projected WAR rate
  2. Laika
    Delgado was three whole years older than Vlad when he turned into an elite hitter
  3. Laika
    There are risks there. 1. He tests the market and ends up a Yankee 2. He is a beast in his walk year and commands 10/300 after his final arb season. That's gross.
  4. Laika
    So shave 4 wins off if you want, it doesn't change anything. He's projected to be 5-6 wins right now at a glance, depending how much PA you want to project.
  5. Laika
    Vlad is the best prospect turned player that the Blue Jays have really ever produced, on the hitting side of things. The numbers don't have to make you super comfortable. If you think they should not lock him up for a decade you can't be helped. Like, you have your head up your ass and your priorities need to be rearranged.
  6. Laika
    Vlad has old man skills. Anyone could get hurt or fall off a cliff but he kind of has the type of baseball skills that can age well. Like old Nelly Cruz or 34 year old Papa Goldschmidt having a golden year. It's a bullish lack of athleticism tbh
  7. Laika
    Why do you have to get a discount? It can just be a fair deal. Arb projections: 2023 $13M 2024 $19M 2025 $25M (source: I made them up) Production projection: 2023 - 6 WAR 24 - 6 WAR 25 - 6 WAR 26 - 6 WAR - age 27 season = physical peak so start decline 27 - 5.5 WAR 28 - 5 WAR 29 - 4 WAR 30 - 3 WAR 31 - 2 WAR = age 32 so let's assume significant injury and he is done 32 - 0 WAR Total = 43.5 WAR (source: I made these up) If you give him the arb numbers and then tack on 30M AAV for 7 years the total contract is $267M That's 6.14M per projected WAR which is pretty nice. Under market value. And no consideration for having a homegrown marketable superstar for so long. And that aging curve I did is pretty harsh. Like, it assumes no MVP seasons and hard decline. He could have some 8 WAR seasons and stay great into his 30s.
  8. Laika
    He's a 23 year old hitting savant with mammoth power and he's a huge marketing pull. I don't see that much risk on the contract. It's not like giving a 28 or 29 year old free agent a 10 year deal. Even fatty Prince Fielder was good through his age 29 season and offered a 2 WAR dead cat bounce at age 31. Prince Fielder = the worst case scenario for Vlad unless he likes coke and boats But his upside is of course Miggy/Pujols........
  9. Laika
    I'd give 10/300 to Vlad in a heartbeat or whatever the similar deal is that bridges to FA and then tacks that AAV on
  10. Laika
    Yeah he used to have better stuff. His velo and stuff, visually, is not that impressive right now. DFA
  11. Laika
    Charlie Montoyo definitely does not use Banda in that game lmao. Maybe just for the one lefty but he does not start the next inning.
  12. Laika
    Because he's a decent hitter you dolt You do that every time the platoon advantage tells you to The Jays don't have Matt Stairs on the bench, sadly
  13. Laika
    John Schneider everybody
  14. Laika
    Is Vlad standing too far from the plate or something? Holy s*** he's f***ing horrible on that stuff
  15. Laika
    I am not having fun
  16. Laika
    He could be Aaron Judge except a shortstop and faster lol
  17. Laika
    The effect is so tiny I think it's basically just an old school bone that the front offices throw the managers/players to make them comfortable
  18. Laika
    And Springer 4th is perfect because he's either coming up with a man on in the 1st inning, great for his HR swing, or he's leading off the 2nd, which he is a role he is used to.
  19. Laika
    In terms of hitter talent The Book basically says you want them to hit 1st = best hitter 2nd = second best hitter 3rd = fourth best hitter 4th = third best hitter 5th = fifth best hitter Toronto has their 3rd best hitter leading off best hitter hitting 2nd 2nd best hitter hitting 3rd 4th best hitter hitting 4th 5th best hitter hitting 5th So it's not exactly optimal, it's just a change. The reason 3rd in the order is not for one of the top 3 hitters is because they come up with bases empty and 2 outs a lot. 3rd would actually be the spot for Bo IMO because he's not really a high OBP guy. I think I'd go: Vlad Kirk Bo Springer Teoscar Gurriel Chapman Jansen Biggio
  20. Laika
    I like it. Just shake it up a bit see if that prompts Vladdy or Bo to start beasting.
  21. Laika
    that's a f***ing laser beam
  22. Laika
    Bo needs a beeeg stronnnnggggg daddy figure to be mean to him
  23. Laika
    Bo refused to wear the jacket? I didn't notice that. That's pretty saucy. Interesting that Bo is the one who seems to support the change given his struggles this year.
  24. Laika
    He would need very good fastball characteristics other than the velo if that's his max. Like high af spin rate and great shape... because that velo sucks.
  25. Laika
    He could also be a great bench coach or third base / first base coach.
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