Laika

Odds: White Sox, 75.5% make playoffs, 53% is division and the remainder 22.5% is wild card odds Guardians, 67.5%, 46.8% is division chance and 20.7% is wild card Astros, 76.5% global playoff odds, 73.7% is win division and 2.8% wild card Blue Jays, 43% make playoffs, 43% clinch wild card Rangers, 31% make playoffs, 22.7% is divisional only 8.3% chance they end up as the WC team Orioles, 1.3% lol Mariners 3.5% chance to win division still? Cliff notes: Astros and Rangers are becoming "win the division or bust" teams I am pleased to see that the Orioles and Mariners are now cooked

I mean yeah it's useless info but still funny The correct way to do projections from here on would be to examine all of the pitching matchups, probably. That will swing things far more than aggregate team talent. You can adjust a coin flip game into a 70-30 thing if there is a big SP tilt. Someone could go game to game and make more granular projections. Similar to playoff matchup analysis. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid One interesting thing on Toronto's opponent grid is that they may not face another tough LHSP... this year? Toronto vs LHP = 85 wRC+ vs RHP = 100 wRC+ Detroit looks like all RHSP. Texas looks like two RHSP then Cody Bradford, who is just a 4 inning soft tosser I think. Baltimore looks like two RHSP then Povich who is not that good (this could be adjusted)

Fangraphs says this is what happens from now on: Guardians go 6-6 and end up 82-80 White Sox go 6-7 and end up 82-80 Jays go 6-6 and end up 81-81 Astros go 6-6 and end up 81-81 Rangers go 6-6 and end up 80-82 Basically, the AL West and the ALC and the 3 WC are up for grabs but nobody wants them. Whichever teams can go on a mini-run will take those spots. Mini-run meaning going like 8-4, lol. The Astros would win the division with 81 wins which is f***ing amazing, I love baseball

Technically Toronto controls their own destiny I stole this from Twitter Toronto is 1 game back of CLE and 1.5 back of CHI CLE and CHI will distribute three losses amongst themselves in this coming series So if Toronto wins every remaining game, they will 100% make the playoffs Obviously they will not win every game but it's still nice to know and from that starting point you can think about all of the other scenarios

are you okay?

The Chicago Cleveland series is huge. White Sox sweep is the best case scenario Cleveland sweep is probably the second best. White Sox winning 2 is also acceptable. Cleveland winning 2 is extremely problematic for me

I don't think they expected him to grow. But he got worse. Slightly worse, but his last year with Arizona was the most dynamic full season of his career. He tried to become a more complete player, repeatedly, with Toronto and it backfired every year. All I ever wanted was the guy who pulled 25 tanks, bunted for a hilarious number of hits, and played gold glove defense. We got a half season of that guy, really. I cringe to think about how he or Toronto tried to get him to hit oppo groundballs and go the other way at least two different springs

It's a must win game Luckily Brendon Little should be good to go

The anti-Guerrero Sabermetrics will discover in a few years that Vlad's approach angle or something imparts a seam shifted distance killing spin profile on most of his fly balls

I thought of guys like Gimenez or Kirk as Blue Jays comps but even they have MaxEVs that are several mph higher than anything Bateman has ever hit, measurably. His MaxEV so far really does put him down with the guys with almost no power at all, David Fletcher and Chandler Simpson and Arraez etc. Taylor Walla. And MaxEV is something that is relatively stable soon, I think. It's sort of like fastball velo. Of course MaxEV isn't everything and of course if you can launch a ball at 98mph it can still get over the fence. This is why Arraez hits 8 homers annually. But even the lower raw power, extreme pull air dudes like Paredes and Bregman can hit the thing like 109mph sometimes. He's a shrimp even compared to Andres Gimenez, lol. But a better "hitter"! I'm ecstatic if he hits 8 homers in a season because that means everything else is working and he's a 650 PA guy.

It's interesting to see him yank two out so close together but the MaxEV between AAA and MLB really makes you think he's a 10 HR guy at the most. I guess 15 is possible but not with his batter ball profile.

It's getting grim. Probably need to rattle off five wins in a row or something like that to turn this around...

And there will be zero actual accountability. Nothing will happen. The org rewarded this imbecile despite these kinds of things his entire career. I'm done.

The Loperfido part doesn't really matter, he is no good and not worth a 40 man spot anyway. Can't hit. But they needed to cut bait on Jesus earlier...

Using Jesus Sanchez until September 11th and suffering through all of that just to DFA him with this many games left is wild. The decision today makes sense. The decisions in the last few weeks to keep him and even start him here and there were not sensible at all. Such a bum.

Jesus Sanchez every time he drops a ball or fails in the clutch

Two disgusting, putrid, rotting veterans take the ball with the season on the line for both teams. This can only end one of 99 ways. Will they both spin confusing gems? Or will they get hammered, like they deserve?

BA - five sleeper AL pitching prospects. Two jays written up. Danny Thompson Jr., RHP, Blue Jays Thompson’s story begins at Division III North Carolina Wesleyan, where he had notable seasons as a freshman and sophomore before struggling as a junior. He transferred to UNC Greensboro for his final two seasons of eligibility and earned first-team all-conference honors in 2025. The Blue Jays drafted Thompson in the eighth round in 2025. Signed for just $5,000, Thompson was essentially given a chance and no other guarantees. After a notable 13.2 innings post-draft in 2025, Thompson began the 2026 season with High-A Vancouver. Thompson has so far made the most of that chance, as he stood out this season while splitting his season between High-A Vancouver and Double-A New Hampshire by pitching to a 3.41 ERA backed by a 3.66 FIP, 4.05 xFIP and 1.16 WHIP. He struck out 29.7% of batters faced while walking 9.6%. Thompson seemed to get better as the season wore on, too, posting stronger numbers in the Double-A Eastern League than he had in High-A. Thompson’s transformation since his time in college is another testament to the Blue Jays’ pitching development success over the last two seasons, as he’s added power and pitches to his arsenal in a short time with the organization. His four-seam fastball has jumped by 2 mph on average, and he now sits 94-96 mph while touching 98 with added armside run and spin. His slider is now an upper-80s gyro pitch with tighter shape than he had in college and more velocity, while the changeup is now what looks like a kick changeup compared to the undeveloped splitter he threw in college. He’s also added a low-to-mid-80s sweeper that’s become a large part of his arsenal. Thompson has above-average swinging-strike rates against his four-seam, changeup and sweeper, and all boast an expected wOBA of .250 or below. Thompson is a bit undersized for a starter, but his ability to consistently throw a quartet of quality pitches in the zone gives him a shot to once again overcome obstacles heading into next year. Daniel Guerra, RHP, Blue Jays The 6-foot-6 Guerra signed with the Blue Jays out of Venezuela in June 2022. He spent three seasons in the Florida Complex League and the Low-A Florida State League before reaching Triple-A this year and making a convincing case to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason. Pitching his way across three levels in 2026, Guerra accumulated 101 strikeouts over 74 innings, holding opponents to a .214 average. Over 23 appearances primarily as a starter, Guerra pitched to a 3.04 ERA backed by a 3.76 FIP and 3.76 xFIP. Among pitchers who threw 70 or more innings in the minor leagues this season, Guerra has one of the highest Stuff+ scores. His three-pitch mix consists of a four-seam fastball, slider and changeup, all of which are effective swing-and-miss offerings. Guerra’s four-seam fastball is his primary offering, and it grades as a plus-plus pitch on Stuff+ models. It sits around 95-97 mph and can get up to 99. The pitch shows heavy ride-cut shape and average extension and generated a 15.5% swinging-strike rate this season. While Guerra’s four-seam fastball is impressive, his best pitch is actually his slider, which logged a plus Stuff+ score of 122. The slider sits 87-89 mph with cutter shape and ride and heavy cut from a higher slot, playing up the angle. It ran a 27.9% swinging-strike rate across all levels this season along with a 37.4% chase rate. A true weapon for Guerra, the slider has held opposing hitters at bay all season with a .245 xwOBA. His changeup, meanwhile, is used far less than the slider or four-seam fastball, but it has still performed well when used. The pitch sits in the high 80s with good vertical separation off his fastball, and Guerra has generated a high rate of ground balls against it this season (61.9%). With a trio of quality pitches, the ability to throw enough strikes with swing-and-miss stuff and tough angles, Guerra is a name to watch in 2027.

From their perspective or the team's?

Ernie Clement cannot start anymore Poor Sean Keys rotting on the bench in leverage pinch hit opportunities

We are so back. (the anemic offense is back)

He's sitting 93. Dude used to have a good fastball. I guess it's long gone.

Good point They seem content to platoon Josh Smith but he is a monster

Ernie is killing me I need him to figure it out

Spaghetti gets decent Stuff grades on some of his pitches, but he doesn't have the velo to throw the fastball an awful lot nor does he have the single elite playable secondary to really rely on. He has become a wide arsenal dork but he doesn't have the command or pitchability to make that work I would probably tighten up his arsenal - maybe he went too far off the deep end of the "three fastballs, wide arsenal" trend Not sure exactly what to kill but he was better as a rookie when he didn't throw a sinker. Not sure why he needs a sweeper and curveball, he should already be able to deal with RHB with the four seamer and curveball Kill the sinker Focus on developing the CUTTER as your weapon against LHB Merge the sweeper and curve into one breaking ball. Don't care what you call it. Just whatever his most comfortable and natural breaking ball is. One pitch, this will help with command and consistency. FA-CT-BB that is 90% of your pitches. Some kind of changeup is the fourth. That's it. This will play in Buffalo. The Bisons will have a good rotation in 2027.