Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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2023 Varsho, 2.1 WAR KK, 2.2 WAR Springer, 2.2 WAR 2024 projection Varsho, 3.0 WAR Springer, 3.0 WAR KK, 1.1 WAR I don't think you really have a "4th OF"... you just have 4 outfielders. Bring in a RHB with some pop (or use Schneider in that role if you sign/trade for a 2B) and then between DH, injuries, and days off, everybody plays enough. Someone like Brian Anderson might be a good fit. He can play RF/LF/3B and not a butcher anywhere. Too bad his offense has cratered and his projections are now soft. Whit Merrifield started 70 games in the OF last year.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
Laika replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Pick your preferred OF addition with these assumptions (Laika's assumptions): The "jewel"... Bellinger - projected 2.5 WAR - 7/$175M contract The good bats with bad defense... Soler - 2 WAR - 3/$66M Hernandez - 1.7 WAR - 3/$60M The old farts and fringe defenders... Pham - 1 WAR - 1/$10M Hicks - 0.9 WAR - 1/$9M Pederson - 1.5 WAR - 2/$24M Brantley - 1.2 WAR - 1/$12M Duvall - 0.7 WAR - 1/$8M Grichuk, Peralta, Grossman - 0.4 WAR - 1/$3M Defensive specialists... Kiermaier - 1.5 WAR - 1/$11M Taylor - 1 WAR - 2/$15M Bader - 1.5 WAR - 2/$22M The reclamation projects... Meadows - 0.7 WAR - 1/$5M Gallo - 0.5 WAR - 1/$5M IMO even though they are all boring additions the three defense-first guys are probably the most likely to actually help the team. I could see a lot of the other options, the old guys and bat first guys, being bad deals.... at least with KK, Bader, and Taylor, health permitting, you know they are going to put up positive production and help on D and the bases. -
Raps positioning for a nightmare scenario Gonna finish 7th last haha and not even get to draft there
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
Laika replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I feel like Bader has a bit more pull and should be able to get an uncontested starting CF gig He has those 3 and 4 WAR years on his resume and the only major question mark is staying on the field Taylor's game kind of erodes more when he gets full playing time... -
Precisely. Exactly. Perfect.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
Laika replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
No, he's like signing the Bradley Zimmer that Bradley Zimmer's mom thought Bradley Zimmer was Taylor's carrying skills (floor) are so good that he has been an asset every single year of his career, ignoring his rookie season. 2019 and 2020 don't count, less than 100 PA both times. He's like, the perfect 4th OF. Can play CF very well, has some pop, can run. -
Yeah it makes no sense. The team that should be signing Cody Bellinger for funny money is the team that has a 4+ year core of youngsters locked and loaded. Seattle has Dominic Canzone as their projected RF, Cade Marlowe in LF, and Taylor Trammell as a starting position player occupying DH on their depth chart. Ty France coming off 0.5 WAR as their 1B. Seattle also has: Luis Castillop 4 years J Rod 6 years George Kirby 5 years Bryce Miller 6 years Cal Raleigh 4 years Matt Brash 5 years Logan Gilbert 4 years Bryan Woo 6 years JP Crawford 3 more Robbie Ray 3 more Andres Munoz 5 more, if they want Seattle should sign Cody Bellinger. LMAO. They f***ing need him omg. Perfect fit and he is an upgrade on a replacement level position player. I will go further. If the Mariners do not sign Cody Bellinger, regardless of cost, they simply do not care about winning.
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Probably ages defensively just like George Springer did Which would be FINE of course but after George's good 2019 in CF, he has been acceptable at best. Not really an asset out there.
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The +/- 2 BsR moves the needle by like 0.2 WAR. Almost nothing. Bellinger was a -4 OF in 2023 per UZR and -3 by DRS. OAA liked him, but 28 years old is still the top of the aging curve... even though he is still young, people should expect him to be a corner outfielder going forward and not really a CF.
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yes I mean, he is a highly variable player, 2.5 is the most likely result. but he's enough of an enigma that I'm not going to put money on a war projection or anything
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Steamer isn't just a basic three year marcel projection It looks at all the inputs. The K rate, the contact, the exit velo, all that. He simply did not demonstrate 4 WAR true talent in 2023 despite the results. It's really easy to see. He got lucky on offense.
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This is stupid and you know it, max You can carve up almost any player's season into little chunks and cherry pick it and weave in a narrative to make them look better or worse Bellinger projects for 2.5 wins. Injuries and ups and downs are literally part of the Bellinger experience. You can't ignore them.
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Ah, a pair of Jims Everything makes perfect f***ing sense now
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Gausman was a stud for 2020 (shortened year) and 2021, with identifiable changes to his approach, velo, and overall talent. Toronto gave the 5 win player $110M. Bellinger doesn't have the same substrate to his stat profile, right now. He's not as objectively good. And his projections are worse. He was a 4 win player in 2023, and got a bit lucky. If Bellinger wants to sign a fair deal, I'm all over him. He's young so 5 years is fine with me. He's a decent player with upside so he can have a $20M AAV. 5/$100 for Cody and 4/$80 for Matthew Good to go.
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No it isn't binary is for robots
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kindly stop being dum Vlad is a middling 1B. Almost irrelevant to the competitive "window" at this point. It would be foolish to construct any timelines or fabricate urgency around a man of his "talents." We are firmly within the Davis Schneider window now.
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my spider sense says there is a chance Chapman will sign for like 4/$80 that would be okay with me
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your dum
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RF - Springer SS - Bo 1B - Vlad DH - Pederson 3B - Turner 2B - Schneider C - Kirk/Jansen LF - Pham CF - Varsho BN - Kirk/Jansen, Espinal, Gallo, Horwitz/Clement This lineup is pretty deep and it can be done with only 1 year commitments (probably). Yeah, LF and 3B are flaky because those guys are geezers but between guys like Barger, Horwitz, Orelvis, Palmegiani, Lantigua, Alan Roden, the team might have a few good depth options for those positions as well as 2B. Could also sacrifice offense for someone at 3B who can more certainly play the position, like Tim Anderson, Donovan Solano, Urshela, IKF, I dunno.
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When people say they want Toronto to sign the 1 year veterans for 2024, they are not saying run back the Belt/KK plays. Those were cute little upside plays. $10M or less for players that gave the team 2 WAR. There is no reason to be cute again and think you can do that. Maybe with one of the open positions, but not all three. No, even on 1 year deals Toronto should be serious about this. Give JDM $20M if that is what he wants. Give Hoskins $22M to DH if that is what it takes. Justin Turner might be a great fit, pay him. Overpay by a couple million bucks for Pham or Duvall or whoever you think is the BEST 1 year LF option, to insure the position.
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Just bring Chappy home for 4/$80 Sign Joc Pederson Sign Joey Gallo and Tommy Pham Slap John Schneider Scold Vlad Tell Kirk you want to see 20 homers win the world series sweetheart extension for Danny Boy blank cheque for Soto
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Yeah It's really just THIS YEAR that everybody looks like a landmine Typically there are a few more good looking options at the top By all means, Toronto should be offering the next Corey Seager or Freddie Freeman in free agency the most money I mean they literally just went balls to the wall for Ohtani and almost pulled it off, haha
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We will see but I doubt 8/$200 is actually even the market rate for Bellinger And if some really dumb team gives him that, that is not proof that it was the correct price Honestly, Cody Bellinger, if he is any good, should bet on himself. Take a 1/$30M deal or whatever. If he has another strong year, then teams will back up the truck for him, I guess.
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stfu jim the Jays sign big free agents all the time now Gausman, Springer, many other lesser examples Cody Belanger is a 2.5 win player asking for the contract that a 5 win player deserves Boras is just looking for a mark team to dump on, just like Bryant and the Rockies two years ago. Not saying Bellinger would be as instantly worthless as Bryant, but same general thing. If Cody wants to talk a 5 year deal then I'm sure Toronto is interested. They might even give him an opt out after year 2 or 3.
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Skenes probably a bad example because of the bad fastball shape But, say guys like Rutschman, Witt Jr.,, Holliday, Gerrit Cole... the guys who are on the map as studs for years and consensus top picks. I wonder what Adley Rutschman would have got coming out of college if he was just a pure free agent. Or what someone of that profile would get right now. $400M+? The thing that is different I guess with Yamamoto is the sample in the NPB gives a really solid basis to his projections. Which say he is a top 20 SP... 3.4 fWAR I think. Not exactly capital "A" ACE projections though.
