Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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Just found a perfect name for my wiener! Ladies, prepare your vagoos for The Nonis Constant.
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That's a pretty solid cross-sport comp. Not perfect, but there are some obvious parallels. He's like JPA, sans the disaster 2013, and with far less charisma. Terrible defender who gets overrated due to high points/production totals.
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I just can't believe that people can watch the Leafs every game and come out thinking that Dion Phanuef is worth 6 or 7M a year. The Leafs are allowing 34.9 shots per game, 3rd worst in the league. Phanuef is getting 24:30 in ice time a game, 21st in the whole league and by far the most on the team. Those 2 things are probably related. He's a 2nd pairing offensive D-man on any decent team. He also skates like a robot / isn't young anymore.
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I do believe that Raul Mondesi Jr. was #4 in the SALLY, top hitting prospect, so I should have an extra ~9 points or whatever.
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And Moulson and JT had pretty good chemistry too. Terrible trade for New York. Vanek isn't special. He barely moves the needle for them, if at all.
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Of course you would. Don't be silly. But that's the same information that he already presented?
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Definitely. You'd probably use ~400 PA or so in a more realistic / sober projection.
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Aside from Posey or Santana (1B dippers), most catchers only get like ~500 PA's in a full healthy season. At a glance, Steamer also seems a bit high on both Conger and Ramos. Conger has been worth 1.2 wins in 508 career PA. He definitely wouldn't project as above average. Steamer seems weird on him... I'm not sure what the Steamer inputs are though. Not sure why you guys are even talking about Ramos though (haven't read this whole thread). He's not in the realm of possibilities here.
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wtffff just happened
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On the one hand, AA could look at Porcello's career ERA and think that he's not very good. On the other hand, AA could look at Porcello's tools and think that he IS actually quite good. And his ERA wasn't even that bad this year. Maybe some scout in the org likes his new curveball and writes down a "would acquire" scouting report. Who even f***ing knows anymore. This front office is probably still capable of making good decisions, maybe not for the right reasons, but they've made some in the past.
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He's one of the best 2B targets out there, in terms of potential value. Back to back 3+ win seasons before his disaster 2013. Still just 26. Not sure if the teams are a good fit though.
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How about Espinosa, Ramos, and Rendon, for Bark Muehrle and Arencibia?
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You have poor reading comprehension skills.
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It's tool syndrome. People don't know how to properly weigh the significance of tools, they see an 80 or a 70 on a guy's speed tool and all of a sudden he's getting ranked highly because he has a true "impact" tool. Obviously everyone understands that hit and hit/power are probably more important than speed, but I think when it comes to guys with plus-plus speed, people let the hypothetical upside blind them too much against the probable downside. I'd probably rather have a guy with a 50 hit tool and a 40 run, as opposed to a guy with a 40 hit tool and a 70 run (all else being roughly equal). That .400 mark could very well be true talent. Minor league BABIP isn't the same as major league. If a guy can run or square up a baseball, then they'll probably BABIP .350+. If a guy can do both, then they'll probably push .400+ as a true minor league talent level. Look at what Trout's were.
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I suggest we keep it on the table, but we go butts-out and avoid the swordfight.
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ok guy. super smart intuitive point you just made there. I'm saying that his market value would *probably* be too high. As in, he would *likely maybe probably* cost more than he's worth.
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Define "hug". I get ornery when I'm hornery.
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Wild guess (not projection) would be that he'll trend towards being a zero run defender during his current deal. It could show up in the numbers as soon as next year, or it could never show up, even if his true talent goes there. Or it could never happen. Or he could turn into a defensive pylon in one offseason. It happens. Or he could already be a zero defender and we just don't know about it because his 2013 was lucky and because of UZR = true talent lag. I wouldn't project his defense to do anything in particular aside from probably not get better; probably get worse.
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I don't "know" anything. Apologies for not qualifying every f***ing sentence with a probably, a maybe, or a likely. I do my best to be a non-absolutist, I swear.
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Well, no, it's mostly about the fact that he's 33 and any sane person would stop projecting him as a +10 run defender.
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The guy said "unbelievable". He's been very good, but he certainly hasn't been generational or anything and he probably wouldn't project to be much more than average going forward, considering his age.
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Not sure if this is a joke or not. a) you can't have him terrible idea anyway. He's a massively overrated prospect that would cost twoonies on the dollar.
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Probably. It's also Rasmus + Gose as insurance + Goins. And the Jays would have a few more millions in the 2014 budget to throw at some middle infield scuzzbutt like Kelly Johnson.
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That's nox's number. I don't really know what it is but it might be close to that with the concurrent/impending contract inflation. I don't think Phillips produces 12 wins in the next 4 years though. Maybe you get 8 out of him. I think 12 would be on the very high end of any sensible projections. If he is indeed in decline, as it looked this year, then you'd get about 2.1+1.6+1.1+0.6. That's only 5.4 widgets, so even at 9M per weiner, he's a non-asset. Mind you, he could possibly still fluke put up 5.4 in a single season. Analyzing contracts like this is all very hand-wavy. Lots of broad strokes and ballpark projections that make projected values almost useful for any specific player. But if you're a baseball ops guy in a FO, I think all that you can do is try to land on the favourable side of things on every investment, and even though you'll probably look wrong on a lot of the specifics, in general you probably end up in the green.
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No, no, and no.
