Laika

Ubaldo and Santana are miles apart for me. K/9 career and 2013: 7.06/6.87 ; 8.27/9.56 GB% career and 2013: 39.8/46.2 ; 47.6/43.9 HR/FB career and 2013: 11.0/12.4 ; 8.7/9.0 (career = heavily Coors!) WAR career vs. IP: 19.6 in 1682.2 ; 23.6 in 1275.2 avg FBv was almost the same between them in 2013. Ubaldo is just a farrrr more talented pitcher. Stuff, profile, age, upside, downside, league/park transition concerns... almost everything comes up Ubaldo. Santana can suck eggs. He probably gets less money though, so there's that. I wouldn't even want to give Santana 40M.

There's a right price for everyone. The Jays definitely have a small market advantage with these compensation free agents. What teams do is essentially throw a $ value on their forfeited draft picks and subtract that from their highest offer. So the market value of Ubaldo and Santana is depressed by an amount that exceeds what the Blue Jays would give up in draft picks if they sign one of them, since the value of a second rounder is much less than a first. Certain teams might also overvalue their first round picks, in general, so the offers that Ubaldo and Santana have been receiving might actually be irrationally low. Maybe they can pounce on a Kyle Lohse type of situation (I thought he would get much more than 3/33 but the comp f***ed him over, and he signed super late). If we're being optimistic, Toronto has an opportunity here. They can potentially grab an undervalued asset while also using a small financial advantage, effectively putting two cherries on top of a kind of gross free agent sundae.

No, it's time to panic. Another Snider-esque developmental failure.

I could see Lawrie having a Carlos Gomez-y career arc. Unactualized talent suddenly becomes actual during some random year in his physical prime. Even if that never happens I think he'll be a consistently above average 3B. I hate to go all baseball right-wing, but I feel like anybody who doubts his defensive skills or wants to give up on his potential probably needs to watch a bit more baseball. Or, on the contrary, put your faith in Steamer. I guess the baseball left should still like Lawrie as well.

Yuni Betancourt - Blue Jays rumours... In the world of scrub collecting, AA is top dog. Mathis and Yuni are like shiny holographic charizards. Not sure there have been any more significant statistical laughing stocks in the last five years or so... Maybe Delmon. He's probably on the Jays radar too, all the time.

Tanaka > Garza >>>>>>>>>> Jimenez > Santana

Garza Garza Garza

It's too early to make definitive conclusions, but if they don't make some additions to the 2014 team then they'll have spent a LOT of f***ing capital to essentially half ass it. It will likely have all been a waste. Bringing a probable 86-87 win team into the AL East? How has that worked out for you in the past, Toronto? And they could've added bankable wins fairly cheaply with guys like Ellis, Johnson, Kazmir, etc. But now, the only half-way guaranteed wins out there seem to be costly f***s like Tanaka, Santana, and Jimenez. Trade route could still get it done efficiently though. They could conceivably get some bang for their buck with a guy like Aaron Sanchez, and spending is spending no matter if it comes in terms of dollars paid or players shipped out.

No. The time to "put up or shut up" would have been before McCann/Ruiz, Kazmir/Johnson, Ellis, etc. all signed. Clearly the Blue Jays chose to shut up.

The Vargas contract is actually pretty team friendly, despite the term. He could earn the entire thing before 2016 if he avoids injury.

He's got 26000 followers!.... too bad most of them probably DGAF about baseball.

Ohhh, true. Aaron Sachez for Timmy seems like a trade that probably won't work out for either party.

Me too, hit me up! We've never made a trade in any league! #breaktheice #HashtagsNotOnTwitter

As for team Canada, this would be mine: Tavares/Crosby/Stamkos Couture/Toews/Giroux Duchene/Getzlaf/Perry Lucic/Bergeron/Benn Extras: I think you can make almost equal cases for Seguin, Sharp, Hall, Staal, Nash, and St. Louis. I like them in the order I listed, but they are all justifiable. Expectation: No Lucic, Nash and Staal both get named, and one of Benn or Duchene go into the tournament as a nominal "extra forward". I could also see them naming Carter or St. Louis and leaving Benn or Duchene at home (which would be super dumb IMO). Kunitz getting named would be even more dumb than that. Doughty/Subban Keith/Seabrook Pietrangelo/Weber Extras: Boyle and Bouwmeester I don't like Letang, and it's not like the team would need a 1-way PP specialist anyway. I don't like Bouwmeester very much either but the handedness thing might matter. I don't know a lot about Vlasic - hockey stat heads, is he roster worthy here? Price Luongo Smith In that order. PK1 is Bergeron/Toews and whatever D. PP1 is line 1 and Keith/Subban. PP2 is Doughty/Boyle and line 2 or 3, maybe consider putting Lucic at LW and in front of the net on PP2. I'd be super interested in what Frag or some other Corsi nerd thinks is the statistically ideal team Canada.

John Stilson and Daniel Norris both have like, a less than 3-5% chance of ever being fantasy relevant. Punt 'em!

In other words, Eric Fehr and Grabo were just promoted to the first line...

I don't even think that their top 2 D, Shattenkirk or Suter, are necessarily better than Yandle.

Paul Stastny? Is USA thin at C or something? All Canada seems to even have is centres.

"I think he'll be what Justin Morneau could have been." Morneau from 23-29: 10.1 BB%/14.7 K%/.228 ISO .287/.360/.515 .369 wOBA/126 wRC+/.296 BABIP Freeman age 24 ZiPS projection: 10.4 BB%/20.9 K%/.192 ISO .286/ .365/ .477 .361 wOBA/~130 wRC+/.333 BABIP I think he'll just be Justin Morneau - a great dynasty 1B and perennial top 10 at the position, but I don't think he'll be much more than that. Specifically, I don't foresee any type of consistent ~.400 OBP or 30+ HR production that would push him into the top 1B tier with guys like Votto, Fielder, Miggy, Goldschmidt, Pujols (past), AGon (past?), Edwin? etc.

need moar trades!

"These cuff links are crafted from an MLB Authenticated game used Blue Jays baseball"

"Best sliders" seems a bit dubious, depending on how you're calculating that. Eveland doesn't even a positive PitchFX pitch value on his slider, career.

Interesting. Answer plz

I don't think movement variance within the 2-seamer bin would have any more effect than movement within the 4-seamer bin. If movement from a 2-seamer has an impact on pitch value, then, generally speaking, it probably matters when looking at that movement relative to 4 seam movement. Just like a changeup plays off a fastball, a 2seamer plays off of a hitter expecting a 4seamer. So I guess it would depend on how you did the analysis here?

Ok, that makes sense to me now. I'll let myself be anchored by your example and say something very velo heavy. 90/10 would be my guess, but I'm thinking even that might place too much significance on movement.