Nox

Exactly. NJH teaches that in his Internetting 101 class.

Buxton vs. The X man is a pretty legit debate. Along with John Tavares' hispanic cousin, they're probably 2 of the top 3 prospects.

Trout is the best player in baseball. So him.

Dinger's Rules to Live By #22: Never pass up an opportunity to pimp one of your fantasy teams. Never.

Hops for days.

Marlins deal doesn't go down without him.

Actually you are. They're good at reporting the news. That's it. When it comes to analyzing assets and potential deals they're not useful.

Why are you doing that?

"Astronomical Haul" for Papelbon... Amaro realizes he can't trade with himself right?

I can't wait to see what prospects we trade for a 0 surplus, free agent deal this time.

Well yah.

I can't believe you've done this.

Ah, I see. Yah, it would be nice to see a what an entirely empirical prospect valuation model would say. It may very well agree with what you're saying. Though, ZIPs and Steamer use minor league data, adjust for age, league, position and take some stabs at D value. They have his current true talent pegged as a slightly below average MLB bat with ok D at SS. That in itself is a valuable asset (2-ish WAR over a full season), but it's actually pretty in-line with what the prospect list model would say. Maybe a bit better. 2 WAR 2.5 WAR 3.25 WAR 3.5 WAR 3.75 WAR 4 WAR Wouldn't be surprised if a multi-year ZIPs projection would look something like that.

Tell us Adam, what's our best estimate of JPA's true talent pitch framing abilities? Hint: Saying it's "Good" because of raw, uncorrected, unregressed data from this season is incorrect.

I see 14.56M. It's not though. You have to put guys into relatively chunky buckets because of the huge error bars. If you made your buckets at n=3, you start seeing things like 9-12 hitting prospects provide more value than 3-6 etc. At that point you might as well turn off all thought and dump your data into a regression machine and fap to the formula it produces. 6th order polynomial over a power law?! Sure why not!! {Insert BTS I ran a regression joke here} This how crap like SIERA created. Our model (in this case a nebulous scouting based model) doesn't really say Profar is the #1 prospect in the game. It says he's #1 +/- a big amount of error. Probably like 40 spots. That's the same reason the Longo analogy isn't perfect. Our true talent error bars are an order of magnitude smaller for a guy with 5+ big league seasons under his belt than a guy of Profar's experience.

Just the way you said that sounds a little biased lol. "Slick chops" vs. "Good". Do we even know Profar is a good fielder? Harper put up a 4.5 WAR season as a 19 year old and was well on his way to 5+ as a 20 year old before he started running into walls. Profar could do that obviously but I'd take the under for sure. I'm pretty sure when we looked it up last year there were only like 3 better 19 year old seasons in MLB history before Harper. I get it though. Profar is basically everything I love in a prospect too. You're right. My mistake. Highly unlikely it would be 9M, let alone 8 over the next 3 years. But in reality this is pretty impossible to project accurately. The extra year I added (like a donkey) to Bautista does certainly change the calculus. Top 10 hitting prospects produce around 14 WAR under team control on average (if my memory serves me correctly). Using $9M/WAR, the surplus that generates is definitely higher than what Bautista provides. Somebody should really make a trade calculator...

Oh, just that. Durrr

I think you're overrating Profar. Would be surprised if he put up the same season Harper did last year. He's a really valuable asset but so is Bautista. (2ish + 4 + 3.5 + 3 + 2) = 14.5 WAR for $50M is alot of surplus. Like $80M ish.

There's more baseball savvy in Theo's toe nail clippings than the entire Jays front office.

Put the numbers down. They're dangerous in your hands.

I like Edwin, Dickey and Reyes. That's about it. I honestly would hate this team if I weren't born into Jays fandom.

Wouldn't read much into it. Their method is very unclear and the sample is small. Even if we do take these numbers at face value, our best numerical estimate of JPA's framing true talent lies somewhere between not good and very bad.

I forget what that's like.

On a one year deal it's very attractive at that price. Regardless of age.

Huntington is actually very saber oriented. I didn't realize this until last summer. But yah, their player development guy is a lunatic.