Nox
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Everything posted by Nox
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Stud. And I have no idea how to embed a video. I tried earlier and failed too.
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I did not.
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It helps that that 245 comes with like 8% body fat. Dude is in amazing condition. Not much excess weight holding him back. Sano and Buxton are definitely legit prospects. Buxton especially.
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I'm definitely taking the Stanton side of that. Without blinking. True talent .400 wOBA (according to ZIPs) 24 year olds who also happen to be plus defenders are things that I would have a very hard time trading.
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I'm guessing Willis was still considered as an asset at the time of the trade too. That probably contributed to the package being so significant.
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Well yah, considering it was thought that Snider's ceiling was basically Upton and Drabek's ceiling was a top end #2 (by his inflated prospect rankings anyways). If it was likely they reached their ceilings, it's obviously a stupid thing to do. But they don't have to reach their absolute ceilings to make it a bad deal either. Upton is probably a true talent 3.5-4 WAR guy who's not really that cheap anymore going forward. He's not someone you empty the farm for. He's not close to a Trout/Harper. Regardless, I do remember you advocating taking the proven young MLB stud side of the deals in the past. Nothing wrong with that as long as it's reasonable.
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Ha. A fully developed, healthy Synd joining Harvey, Wheeler, Niese and 1 FA stud to form a juggernaut rotation is in play. God help us.
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And if d'Arnaud didn't get hurt and came up with a league average bat with good defence it would be looking like an even more thorough disaster. Again, that line of thinking works both ways.
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Yah I didn't mean that he's more injury prone than any other pitching prospect. Just that he IS a pitching prospect and he has to dodge alot of health stuff in the next 5 years before he REALLY makes us all want to weep openly in public SirBJay style.
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Indeed. He's obviously an excellent player.
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There's also a very real chance he tears a labrun/rotator cuff/UCL and doesn't live up to current projections because of health alone.
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While you're hindsight evaluation of Drabek + Snider for Upton is obviously right, it should also be said that it's unlikely that Justin Upton is a HOFer.
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It's a brave new world out there my friend. One I don't pretend to understand most of the time.
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I assure you there is. All mens teams that wear sliding shorts and give signals. I wish I was making this up.
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"Serious" softball is right up there with male ringette in terms of lamest things in the sporting universe.
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Softball is excellent. Having beers while hitting line drives at girls...what's better? Somebody tell me what's better!!
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Your ability to work 21 hours a day is also an asset. So is your early death. You just made analyst!!
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This noble admission was noted.
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Guys, I appreciate the support but I've created a new fantasy baseball league/format this year that I'm pretty into. Between that, my fear of other humans and desire to stay indoors at all times, it'll be a tough fit scheduling/logistics wise.
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Unfortunately I see this as the only course of action.
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Holy crap he was flying around the bases. That wasn't anywhere near as crazy a kick off the wall as you can get in SF.
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Last real study on this I've seen was in the Hardball Times Annual pre 2012 by Matt Swartz. It was north of $8M/WAR then. I recreated the study midseason last year and got something within $100K/WAR. Shapiro said they had it projected to be $9M/WAR for this past offseason. I can assure you that whoever came up with $4.75M did something wrong. The market didn't crash by 50%.
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So he is. That'll teach me for trusting NJH. Though, Tango himself (the creator of FIP) has said it probably doesn't apply for knuckle ballers. And that's what the Fangraphs value is based on. Buuuut I guess his RA9 WAR is around there too. So yah. Eff you njh. Yah, we can increase the discount rate but it's going to take a pretty big adjustment to make up the gap. It's also a pretty good initial stab at it from other work I've seen. The biggest surplus from prospects come from their prearb years where the discount rate isn't as punitive.
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I'm guessing Dan Evans' primary role in that front office is to show AA how to print out his emails.
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Based on that, ~$45M in surplus. But keep in mind that that's using $5M/WAR which is pretty outdated. Using something more up to date (but still very conservative) like $8M/WAR we're talking about something north of $60M in value. No matter where we were on the win curve coming into the year, it doesn't justify that sort of investment for 1 year of RA Dickey. That works both ways though. Dickey has been s***** this year and has actually provided negative value.