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Nox

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Everything posted by Nox

  1. Nox
    Basically what the others said already. This is just a very wrong way of thinking of things. There's some degree of random variation in virtually everything.
  2. Nox
    MGL's blog should be excellent. http://baseballsolutions.wordpress.com/ His post on Joe Madden was pretty awesome.
  3. Nox
    David Price is going to get traded for about 200 cents on the $ ala James Shields in the offseason. There's at least a chance the Jays will be the ones paying the 200 cents. Put me in the bucket of naive fools who didn't realize Price was an uneducated, arrogant douche bag. I hope his financial adviser steals half his $.
  4. Nox
    Nice of you to show so succinctly 2 things you clearly have no understanding of.
  5. Nox
    Focusing solely on your starting pitcher's ERA is pretty stupid though. The OP is basically saying your focus should be to increase your run differential (efficiently) at all times. Quotes from AA like the one he provided hint that the Fat Greek doesn't really get that.
  6. Nox
    So where did the following players come from?: Zobrist Myers -> Shields Jennings Moore Cobb Hellickson + everyone else not named Price or Longoria It's almost like they extracted a f*** tonne of value from both the draft and the trade and free agent markets. Their success has not been a product the previous regime's failures. It takes about 2 minutes of thinking semi-critically to understand that.
  7. Nox
    Challenge: Can anybody find an article/post/whatever that has an AA quote in it where he demonstrates at least a rudimentary understanding of "advanced" metrics? We've read alot of the "AA knows stats because he does" type of articles and a number of quotes from the fat man where he talks about how he thinks he gets them but it's really just hot air. You hear Friedman, Shapiro, Huntington et al speak to things like adding wins in the market and the price of a win. Talking about increasing their run differential. AA has never even once mentioned something like this publicly to my knowledge. He uses OPS almost exclusively and somehow thought Miguel Cabrera was more valuable than Mike Trout last year. I mean f***, I know those are pretty anecdotal but they should at least be pretty god damned suspicious.
  8. Nox
    He absolutely does not.
  9. Nox
    A complete ******** narrative, one that uneducated fans tend to spout quite often on here. If you think this is why the Rays are where they are, you're as lost in a fog as any poster on this board. If you want to be taken half seriously, don't say stupid things that any idiot can falsify with about a minute of Googling. The Friedman regime has had 2 #1 pick. David Price, Beckham not 10. And you are out of touch. Sure attendance was up in the first half of the season but where does it project to be in the first half of next season? Undoubtedly down. Significantly so. Lets not pretend that's not a huge concern from a pure business standpoint.
  10. Nox
    co-signed
  11. Nox
    Hyperbolic at best.
  12. Nox
    Indeed.
  13. Nox
    The whole concept of "selling low" is pretty stupid when it comes to baseball players. A player's projected output is their projected output.
  14. Nox
    CHP: Waterloo Math degree, can't use computers.
  15. Nox
    There should be no probably if we frame the comparison this way. "Who's the most valuable asset in baseball" is essentially rhetorical at this point.
  16. Nox
    Yah, except there's a completely logical basis for comparison. The effect on run differential which is really all that matters.
  17. Nox
    And Hech is 4 years older. Sort of a huge deal at these ages. Profar is still an elite prospect.
  18. Nox
    The Jays don't even think Escobar is a average defensive shortstop. So while the eyeblack scandal certainly wrote his ticket out of town, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they did that deal without the incident.
  19. Nox
    Wait, we're talking about the Shields trade in any other frame than a disaster for KC? It was an awful trade before the season. With the benefit of hindsight and Myers' progression this year it's something worse than awful. Shields was a 4 win upgrade on whatever shitbag they were going to run out there at the back of their rotation. Myers would have been a similar upgrade over Jeff Francouer (lol). Throw in the salaries/years of control and...yah. You get what you'd probably expect when GMDM and Friedman lock horns in a trade.
  20. Nox
    Unrelated to the thread, but I enjoyed this: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0907.0455v3.pdf
  21. Nox
    You and your details.
  22. Nox
    Balentin has better numbers than Cabrera this year. http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/players/13315133.html Therefore he's better right? I mean, we can't make any assumptions about league or park (or so I've learned in this thread).
  23. Nox
    Stop talking about it then. While your statement is generally true, compared to other domains, baseball analysis is not all that complex.
  24. Nox
    Envy my powers.
  25. Nox
    Oh I see. I guess Oakland's foul territory is only hypothetically gigantic and I suppose the thick sea-level induced air that rolls in at night is only something us nerds dreamed up in our labs/cellars.
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