BP from December:
8. David Paulino, RHP
DOB: 2/6/1994
Height/Weight: 6’7”, 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed September 2010 by the Detroit Tigers out of the Dominican Republic for $75,000; acquired via trade from Detroit.
Previous Ranking(s): #3 (Org), #83 (Top 101)
2017 Stats: 6.52 ERA, 6.52 DRA, 29 IP, 36 H, 7 BB, 34 K in 6 games at the major league level; 4.50 ERA, 7.94 DRA, 14 IP, 11 H, 9 BB, 13 K in 3 games at Triple-A Fresno
The Good: Paulino has shown Top 101 stuff on the mound throughout his minor league career. He has a plus fastball that gets extreme plane due to his height and extension. He has a full four-pitch mix with two useable breakers. The curve is potentially plus. The change isn’t too bad. He already has major league time.
The Bad: Generally Paulino has had trouble staying on the mound due to durability issues. This year it was an 80-game PED suspension. We are not arbiters of morality here, but it was even more lost development time, time that may have come against major-league bats. He’s going to have to make adjustments there too, as his command hasn’t been great against them. The change isn’t too bad, but it’s not going to keep people from throwing reliever projections on him.
The Role:
OFP 55—Frustrating third starter that racks up Ks but occasionally just gets shelled
Likely 40—Good middle reliever
The Risks: Hoo boy. Yeah, I mean. He has had Tommy John surgery, and elbow tendinitis after that. An 80-game PED suspension after that, and he hasn’t consistently shown major league command or a third pitch. That’s a bigger spread OFP/Likely spread than I am generally comfortable with for a guy who is going to be 24 and is a handful of starts from graduating, but it may understate the risk here.
Major league ETA: Debuted in 2016
Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: For fantasy purposes I prefer Paulino to Armenteros, but there’s nothing I can say that reduces Paulino’s risk profile. The strikeout potential is big, but that won’t matter much if Paulino can’t reign in his command, and obviously the suspension doesn’t help. Odds are Paulino is a reliever, but he might be a damn good one. If he does manage to start he could be a high-WHIP, high-K SP5/6. That means he’ll flirt with top-150 status, but he’s certainly not a lock to get there.