BTS

I think this is an interesting topic. We know for a fact that this is the case if you're tied in the bottom of the 9th. It's also probably true tied bottom 8. I wonder what other situations would dictate that you're better off increasing odds of scoring 1 run at the expense of overall run expectancy. Probably more than we all think? Some of these bunts are still a tough sell for me though, especially early in a tie game.

Honestly, it should be Waguespack. Richard won't be ready. SRF and Paulino have been bad in AAA. Murphy is still in AA. Gaviglio is legit mowing people down in the pen and we should proabbly see how long that can last. Only other option is Pannone.

Surprisingly, it was more of the same story. Of 629 qualified pitchers: - 85th-highst average EV - 114th-highest % of batted balls hit 95+ - 317th-highest barrels/batted ball event So lots of loud contact, but GB tendencies result in an average-ish number of barrels. 2019 - 223rd out of 261 in xwOBA (0.375) 2016 - 286th out of 587 in xwOBA (0.319) I think the difference in xwOBA between the two years is mostly driven by his much better walk and ground ball rates in 2016. The contact quality is pretty similar. Maybe we've been too quick to call contact-management one of his skills? It is, after all, only ~500 innings of ERA lower than the estimators. If he's managing contact better than most pitchers, I have no idea where that's coming through in the data. I'm very surprised by the 2016 data especially.

We both seemed to push all the wrong buttons. You lost a category with streams, and I lost a category by deciding to sit Matt Harvey yesterday.

I took a look at Aaron Sanchez's batted ball stats this morning expecting to see a bunch of soft contact that would help explain the big difference between his ERA and xFIP. Most of it is luck, because nobody is going to make a 5.15 xFIP work, but I expected a lot of soft contact that would explain the difference at least in part. Among 334 qualified pitchers (25+ batted ball events), he: - has the 79th-highest average exit velocity (90.2) - he's 118th highest in exit velocity on FB/LD (93.9) and 89th highest on ground balls (87.3) - he has the 67th-highest percentage of batted balls being hit at 95+ (43.2%) - he's 201st-highest in barrels/batted ball event (this isn't bad) Posting because I was legit surprised at how mediocre the contact profile is given the difference between his ERA and xFIP. People are hitting the ball harder off him than they do against most of the league. He's not really doing anything that you'd like to see a starting pitcher do right now, aside from an above-average GB rate (which does limit the barrels against to a slightly better than average rate): - his K-rate is below average - he has the second-highest walk rate in the league among qualified starters - when hitters make contact, they hit the ball harder than they do against most pitchers I wonder how he'd do in a role where's only asked to go a max of 3-4 innings. I have no idea if this is true or not, but he seems to fare quite well early in starts and then fall apart by inning 5 or 6.

That was a nerve-wracking SNB. I'll happily take my tie and be done with the Slayers for the season.

Still doesn't have a job, which is pretty inexcusable. He'd be a great addition.

April 28th and the team is 14-14 with a +11 run differential. Things are looking up.

Holy f*** Drury is on a heater

He still has two option years left, but I get the sentiment. He's a bad corner OF and below-average baserunner, so he'll have to hit very well to stick. He's basically Hernandez with less sexy tools and fewer idiotic plays.

Eric Sogard is absurd

Pannone becoming good has been a very welcome development.

Someone take that candy from Vlad.

Freddy Galvis has this

It's so good to have Tepera back. Just need David Phelps now.

Good lord McKinney

Bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with none out increases the probability of scoring at least 1 run while decreasing overall run expectancy. So it's a viable strategy if you're tied in the bottom of the 9th.

Jurickson Profar is f***ing awful.

This bunting is egregious and Atkins has to put an end to it.

https://www.cengage.com/resource_uploads/downloads/0534094929_46534.pdf Regarding yesterday's bunt, the run expectancy with a runner at 2nd and nobody out is 1.19 runs. The run expectancy with a runner at 3B and 1 out is 0.98 runs. But it was the bottom of the 9th in a tie game, so that doesn't really matter. The probability of scoring at least one run with a runner at 2nd and nobody out is 0.62, and the probability of scoring at least one run with a runner at 3B and 1 out is 0.69. So McKinney getting the bunt down increased the probability of winning the game. I don't know his probability of successfully getting a sac bunt down, but with the way he's hitting, it's probably significantly higher than his odds of contributing if told to swing away. Most of Montoyo's bunts are ******** because they've come in situations where he's decreasing his total run expectancy in order to increase his odds of scoring at least 1 run, but in yesterday's situation it was very defensible.

Vlad had 4 good PAs and made every play at 3B. This team is instantly a ton more fun to watch.

I kinda of like the bunt there.

I get sad after Vlad ABs. He looks like a f***ing monster at the plate, then we have to go back to the other scrubs and watch McKinney ground out weakly to 1B and Teoscar get abused by Mike Fiers.

f*** me I thought that was gone

I actually kinda feel bad for Davis. This kind of abuse just aint right.