He put up .250 .318 .354 in 2015, and .267 .305 .385 in the second half this year. The suggested line certainly isn't ridiculous, even if it is somewhat unlikely.
(I'm only responding to this part, not making any comment about the rest of Olerud's post).
He won't top the AAV, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him get 4/40.
Given how volatile relievers can be, the security of 3 or 4 years is probably more valuable.