TheHurl

didn't see the Chat posted so here goes. I really hate Manuel. Matthew Robinson (Medicine Hat, Alberta): After this season Shane Dawson got himself on a lot of top prospect list. I'm curious what you think his ceiling is? Is he someone the Jays some look at in major league camp the same way they did with 2 guys last year? Thanks! John Manuel: Really? He’s not on our list … I do not see Shane Dawson as a prospect because of his well-below-average fastball. According to the scouts & player development folks I have talked to, despite his strong 2015 season, Dawson is more of an organizational player than a big leaguer. I hope he proves me wrong. But he wasn’t a serious threat for the Top 10, even in a trade-depleted system. Jon (Brampton, ON): Thanks for doing the chat John. How far off the top 10 was Juan Meza? What is his upside? John Manuel: Quite far off for Juan Maza, who was No. 27 last year and then has grown physically and is struggling to control his body. He doesn’t throw a ton of strikes and hasn’t grown into his potential yet, or hasn’t quite started to really. He’s a hope and a dream right now rather than a prospect. Frank (Chicago): How many of these guys have a case for the top 100? Thx John Manuel: Well, we’re finalizing BA Grades for the Handbook right now … you really, really should order a Prospect Handbook if you have any interest in this stuff, you know. 900 scouting reports in one place, pretty sweet deal. Anyway, Alford is an easy top 100 guy, and more like a Top 50 guy. For me, in Handbook terms, he’s a 60 Medium. I guess that means he’s a 60 Medium since I was the one who came up with BA Grades (heavily borrowing from the methods a couple of clubs use) and also wrote the Blue Jays chapter. … Conner Greene is a top 100 guy for me, easily. Vlad Jr. will probably be toward the back of my top 100 though I know that’s rich for some. I also could see Richard Urena & Sean-Reid Foley in there. Top of the system, to me, is still pretty good. Just the depth has been hollowed out. Grant (NYC): Between Nay and Dean, who are you higher on, and who's the better defender at third? John Manuel: Nay, barely, because of the defense. But those guys weren’t too different to me. One takes it too seriously (Nay), is too hard on himself, and the other is too laid-back (Dean). Maybe if you fused those two guys together … Nay moved down the list quite a bit because he just hasn’t hit or hit for power as a pro yet. When you cut back on power to make more contact and still don’t make great contact, that’s a problem. Kal (Toronto ONT): What can you tell us about rhp Jose Espada? Will he be in the handbook? Already preordered mine. Thanks. John Manuel: Thank you and yes, he’ll be in the Handbook. Quick version without giving it all away is, he’s an athletic righthander with a loose arm and some fastball command, a good place to start. Gordon (Salt Lake City): Taylor Cole never gets any love! Hasn't been a consistent arm in the Jays system since 2011. Chance for big league debut in 2016? John Manuel: Erroneous!! I am the president of the Taylor Cole fan club, having jacked him up our Top 200 prospects list in the 2007 draft. I thought he would the the ace of my fantasy Las Vegas World Baseball Classic team by now. (Aaron Blair has long since surpassed him, as has Amir Garrett and Donn Roach.) Then I tried to be all over him again in 2014 when he led the minor leagues in strikeouts. However, Taylor just never has grown into the sustained plus fastball that scouts saw for him back in high school. Maybe he lost a little athleticism; not quite sure, never got the explanation. He had a chance for 55 fastball and slider back then, but now he’s got a pretty good changeup and the rest of his stuff is fringy. If I could have ranked him, I would have, but I did not. I hope he proves me wrong. Harris (Toronto): Who made the biggest leap in the Jays system this year? John Manuel: How about Conner Greene, from not in the 30 to No. 2? From a gleam in the eye to the system’s best remaining pitching prospect? Nice signing, great development story, and he kind of fulfills all the things that the Jays look for as an athletic HS pitcher who has grown into his projection. Good story and he has his own IMDB page, which is fun. Danny (Denver, CO): Any chance Andy Burns can crack the big league roster in 2016? Seems to be a low cost utility type John Manuel: Another 4 Corners guy like Cole that I wrote up out of Rocky Mountain High. The Colorado prep hitter class is not nearly as strong as as the Colorado pitching fraternity. I believe Greg Bird and Chase Headley comprise the entirety of the big league hitters who went to HS in Colorado. Burns is a low-ceiling guy at this point; his power and stolen-base numbers tumbled at Triple-A. Luckily for him he still can play some shortstop in a pinch, 2nd and 3rd base and both OF corners. That’s his ticket to getting some big league time, I think you are right. He’s not on the 40-man, though; may take some doing to change the front office’s mind, but the front office has changed, so maybe the new guys will like him better. Ryan (Boulder, CO): What's the skinny on Dwight Smith Jr.'s future role at present? John Manuel: Not so much … His value has to come from his bat. He runs and defends fine, but those things don’t separate him. He’s not Dalton Pompey, he’s got to hit to have a big league shot. Like Burns, he was left off the 40-man, sailed through the Rule 5 and has to hit his way back into Toronto’s plans. unlike Burns, he lacks defensive versatility. He’s a real longshot right now. Melvin (Central New York): Haven't heard much about the status and progress of Max Pentecost. Does he have a future as a catcher despite all the arm trouble? John Manuel: He’s right there in the Top 10, but he’s the point where the Top 30 loses containment frankly. A catcher who has had 2 shoulder surgeries should not be in your Top 10 frankly. I have my doubts; I’m not Dr. James Andrews, but I prefer my catchers to not have had 2 shoulder surgeries. We won’t find out until he comes out and tries to play. He may hit enough to have value at another position, but that’s not why they passed on Trea Turner to draft him. Grant (NYC): I'd read Tellez has 70 raw power. Since you have Vladdy Jr as the top power hitter in the organization, what would you grade his power at? John Manuel: I don’t think Tellez has 70 playable power; 70 raw, sure, but Vladdy is probably 80 raw and we’ll see how playable it is. The comps on Vladdy are all guys with huge power, like Kevin Mitchell and Miguel Sano. None of the comps are to his dad, though he does have his dad’s high pockets. Rob (Toronto, ON): Clinton Hollon's curve was rated as the organization's best but he didn't crack the top 10. Is he a fringe candidate to make the 10 or are his other tools lacking promise or projection? John Manuel: He has a lot of stuff going on. He’s had TJ. He has had a suspension. He’s hardly pitched. There is upside there, but Clint Hollon rarely has kept his stuff together over a full season. I guess I would like to see him prove it. He’s an 11-20 guy in the Handbook. Anthony (LA): Chances that Reid-Foley sticks in the rotation? If he does what is his upside there? Is he a top 100 prospect this year? John Manuel: He just needs to slow down; he’s a guy who actually should benefit from the new regime, at least in terms of slowing down and figuring out if he can start. The old regime probably would push him to the majors Castro or Osuna style when he started throwing fastball strikes. The new guys will try to consolidate his progress and let him pace himself a bit more, force him to throw more changeups and become a more polished pitcher. We’ll see if that’s in him; he’s an intense dude according to all our #sources. Larry (Vault 857): Have you heard anything about a couple young rookie ball pitchers named Guadalupe Chavez and Hansel Rodriguez? Are they going to make the Handbook? John Manuel: Both in the Handbook. Jays are excited about both, and our reports on Hansel are pretty strong — chance for a true plus fastball if not better down the line. Chavez is more of a pitcher than a thrower, more polished than lightning stuff. Ringo (Octopusses Garden): With all the trades the past year where does this farm rank now? It looks pretty barren. John Manuel: Solid top 6-7 prospects for me, but after that … it’s light. I think it’s right around 20-22 in my farm system rankings. We’re finalizing those (and the rest of the Prospect Handbook) this weekend. Handbook goes out the door Tuesday. It’s the most … Wonderful Time … of the Year! (ding, dong, ding, dong …) April (Toronto): Any feedback on "Mighty Mouse" Jorge Flores? Would love to see him in AAA and have a chance at a callup John Manuel: I’d call him for Mexico’s WBC team if I were Edgar Gonzalez (Adrian’s brother and Team Mexico’s manager according to Jon Morosi, who definitely has WBC Fever). If only Flores were a plus runner, I could see him being a potential big league reserve, but I just don’t see it. I fear he’s a fine org player, maybe at some point he’ll get a cup of coffee, but that’s the extent of it, for me. Larry (Vault 857): The Jays seem to have some nice lefties outside the top 10 in Angel Perdomo, Ryan Borucki, and Matt Smoral. How would you rank these guys? Who is the most likely to reach the majors? Can any of them make it as starters? John Manuel: They have the highest hopes for Borucki, and I do as well, best changeup in the system. Perdomo is a good pull, he has some live stuff as well. Smoral … well, the first thing you have to do as a prospect is play. He doesn’t play. He’s just as athletic as he needs to be to stay healthy with that big ol’ frame. Maybe one day he’ll stay healthy; good luck predicting that. John (Raleigh): Under AA, TOR was quite aggressive in promoting their young arms (running Reid-Foley up to High A at 19 despite issues w/ command is one recent example; see also Sanchez, Aaron). Do you have a sense if this developmental philosophy will change or remain the same under the new regime? John Manuel: This will change. I don’t know how drastically, but players will be promoted much slower to my understanding. It’s going to be like Twins circa 2005 over there … Peeved (Portland, OR): Hey, John. In a recent podcast you referred to Canada as "nowhere". Does such insight uniquely qualify you to compile this list? Thanks. John Manuel: Lighten up, Francis. It was a joke immediately followed by a joke directed at BA intern alumna Alexis Brudnicki. You know our magazine was founded in Canada right? I immediately regret this decision to answer this question, but our podcasts are fun, give a listen. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/media/podcasts/ Tim Stephens (Proctorville, Ohio): Any comps for Rowdy Tellez at this point? John Manuel: I’ve been comparing a lot of first basemen to Lucas Duda lately. The Dude has become my go-to dividing line for first basemen. The Dude’s hit 57 home runs the last 2 years and was a starter on a pennant winner. I honestly think Tellez is pretty Duda-like … similarly challenged athletically and defensively, but pretty big power. To me, ideally, Duda is a 6-hole hitter for a championship team, and that seems like Tellez’s peak. Matt (Raleigh, NC): What is the best-case timeline for Vlad junior? He seems to have all the tools and then some compared to what his dad had at his age. How soon can we see him in the upper-levels of the minors and even the big leagues? Is it a Bryce Harper-type situation? John Manuel: Let’s pump those breaks a bit … he’s not as good as his dad. His dad was WAY more athletic. Think back to Vlad Sr. earlier in his career, not 2010 World Series Vlad. I got to see him in 1995 in the Sally League; that Vlad was ridiculously skinny, wiry and electric. That’s not Vlad Jr. But, he could be pretty precocious. I mean, Sano … he’s probably not Sano, but Sano signed in 2009 and missed a year with TJ but still was an impact rookie in 2015, 6 years after signing. That’s more Vlad’s development path, not Bryce Harper. Bryce Harper … we tried to tell you this was a once-in-a-generation kind of precocious talent. Didn’t call Trout being the same (if not better) but Vlad Jr. isn’t that caliber of quick mover, I don’t believe. His dad is a borderline Hall of Famer. I think the son could be a masher at 1B eventually and a first-division starter at that with 30-home runs. But I don’t think he’s as precocious as Bryce Harper getting to the major leagues at age 19, no. Esteban (West Palm Beach): Although I hear that the Blue Jays' system still has prospects, it feels like they're all second-tier prospects. What are the odds that there isn't a major league regular in their system now? John Manuel: No, you’re not correct. Alford is a first-division guy; I think Greene is as well. Vladdy has a high ceiling, and Urena was in the top 3 in HR in the Midwest League as a teen shortstop. I think you’re pretty light on their potential impact guys. They have some impact, and Alford strikes me as not very risky thanks to his athleticism and plate approach, which are special, especially for a guy with his limited baseball experience. If he’s not a big league regular in 2-3 years, I’ll be very surprised. Esteban (West Palm Beach): Are there any prospects that can help the major league club next year? John Manuel: They don’t have an obvious 2016 rookie. That said, they had Travis, Pompey, Osuna, Castro, Aaron Sanchez, Norris and Matt Boyd from last year’s farm system exhaust their rookie eligibility. So that’s a ton of rookies one year, I think it’s understandable they wouldn’t quite have as many the next year, that and all the guys they traded away. david (toronto): Hi what is the ceiling for vlad jr and do you know why the jays struggle to produce everyday players? thank you John Manuel: Asked and answered re: Vladdy. I don’t think they struggle that badly — Adam Lind, Kevin Pillar, Ryan Goins, Yan Gomes … they’ve kept some, gave up too early on some … and they were pretty good at finding relatively free talent like Ed-Wing and Joey Bats. Greg (Shakespeare, ON): Which pitcher was closest to top 10? (Espada, Hollon, Borucki, or Perdomo) Who's your favourite unknown sleeper pick? John Manuel: The Canadian ‘u’ got this question higher in the queue … my deep sleeper is Yennsy Diaz, rhp. He’ll be in the Handbook. I don’t see any questions about him in the queue. Esteban (West Palm Beach): What are Greene, Harris and Reid-Foley? High-floor 3's? John Manuel: Greene may have more ceiling than that. Harris is safe, but to me I’m a little hesitant to put a huge ceiling on him. He’s pretty skinny, he’s going to have to show he can hold up over 150-190 IP in a year. I’m not sure he is ready for that; he got pretty gassed and hit pretty hard after he signed. Reid-Foley … less of a safe bet than those guys. If he wound up an erratic bullpen arm, it wouldn’t shock me. I wouldn’t call him high-floor. Esteban (West Palm Beach): Would you be surprised if Alford has a 30-30 season in the bigs? Is his upside McCutchen? John Manuel: I would be very surprised, considering he already is strong and has plate discipline, if he started hitting a lot more home runs and do not see him as a 30-HR guy. His upside is below McCutchen. Tim (Toronto): Lot of talk in Toronto from Shapiro about changes coming in player development - seems scouting has been good over the last few years. What is BA's opinion of how they have been drafting? How many clubs could trade the # of prospects they have and still have a solid Top 10? John Manuel: Blue Jays remind me of the Yankees in a lot of ways in terms of draft … they know what works for them in terms of scouting and developing pitchers. They have conviction, and that seems to feed on itself. I think their pitching development has had some nice wins (Stroman, Hutchison to an extent, Osuna, the guys they traded like Graveman, Norris, Boyd …). The Yanks are similar. They also are similar in that both orgs have whiffed on some signings, whether through injuries or other factors, which seems mostly like bad luck because it is so hard to get pre-draft medical info on some of these guys. But the Jays didn’t sign Beede (not injury), Bickford and Singer … the system would look different with 1, 2 or 3 of those guys in it. Of course for not signing Beede, they had an extra pick in 2012, and that pick turned into Stroman. So that is a deal they’ll make every time. Greg (Shakespeare, ON): Do you think it's really possible that Vlad is a 3B? Where do you see him starting the year? John Manuel: Let’s watch him play games that matter and see. I can say they were encouraged. He’ll probably play 3b in extended spring and then the GCL next year; MAYBE he’ll be in the Appy League. I am hoping Appy! Esteban (West Palm Beach): Do you think the Jays will miss Barreto and Hoffman as much as Thor and D'arnaud? John Manuel: Lots of questions from Esteban … if that’s your REAL name … I’ll say not as much, but they traded talent to get talent. Also, Donaldson has been better than Dickey, and so will Tulo, so I’ll say not as much in that regard as well. Syndergaard (who I know I was light on) > Hoffman. Sam (Blue Jay Land): Chad Girodo has dominated at every level he has played at. Do you think he makes it to Toronto in 2016? John Manuel: Well, it took him 3 years to figure out the SEC. I do like him as an Aaron Loup type and he’s in the Handbook. Not on the 40-man yet but if they need a situational lefty, he’s at the top of the list. Prison Mike (Scranton, PA): Where would you rank Dalton Pompey if he were still eligible? His inconsistency is concerning. Would you consider his skill set similar to Alford? John Manuel: Less certainty in his offense, his approach is less consistent than Alford’s, less offensive ceiling. I did not bear down on him at all because he was not eligible, so I didn’t delve into the bat. But I liked him a lot last yaer; I bet I would have had Pompey 2 as a 50/Medium type. Josh (San Francisco): I'm a bit surprised to see Tellez at number 7 after a great showing in AFL. Why have Vlad Jr ahead of him when he hasn't even had a profession AB? John Manuel: Ceiling vs. “certainty” is always a tough balance. I just think Vlad has a much higher ceiling, impact player vs. solid but not star player. Jay (Alberta): Reggie Pruit fell in the draft cause of a strong commitment to Vandy, what round should be have been drafted in and what kind of ceiling does this kid have? John Manuel: I mean, he $500k … so he’s happy, I’m guessing. He’s got a Dalton Pompey kind of ceiling, maybe not even quite that high. It doesn’t sound like there’ s a ton of power potential there, more of a contact bat with premium speed and defense. That’s Pompey’s potential, and Dalton has a bit more upside at the plate. Karl of Delaware (Georgtown, Delaware): Always interested in the sleepers in the short season teams. Does Toronto have any? John Manuel: That’s pretty much everyone from 11-30 in the Handbook, with very few exceptions. BlueJayBen (Michigan): Is there still any plan to use Jon Berti? He seems like a super-fast middle-infielder. Is he the kind of sleeper who could end up in Toronto in 2016? John Manuel: He’s fast, not super-fast. He does have a chance to be a 2016 rookie, but to me he’s low impact, best fit as a backup, considered for the back of the top 30 type of guy. @Jaypers413 (IL): Former BA staffer Clint Longenecker did a 5-hour plus Blue Jays prospect chat last year. Any plans to break his record? Just curious. John Manuel: No, because I’m editing the Handbook and I’m half the man Clint Longenecker is! DC (TOR): Harris' ranking seems kind of low for a guy who a lot of people said the Jays got a steal during the draft, and people said that fatigue played a large part for Harris' tough pro debut, what are your thoughts? John Manuel: If he’s fatigued after a college season, pitching against lesser hitters, how fatigued will he be in full-season ball in 2015? I’m worried about his lack of physicality; he’s more back of the rotation profile rather than a front of the rotation guy. He was Mo. State’s No. 2 starter by the way; Matt Hall was the ace by the end of the year and led the country in K’s. I know my good friend Jim Callis loves his Missouri State guys, but the recent track record for Mo. State isn’t super … Brett Sinkbeil anyone? Mike Kickham? Nick Petree? I don’t mean to harsh on the Bears, I really like that program. Dan (Augusta, ME): Last year C Dan Jansen ranked in the Jays top 20 but struggled in 2015. Standard catcher growing pains or has his prospect status taken a hit? Thanks! John Manuel: That’s fair, he has some tools, still the best C prospect in the system. A broken hand just cost him development time but shouldn’t be a long-term concern. I like him OK but he’s more of a backup profile; there’s not an impact skill or tool there, more solid than anything that jumps out. Mike (Flowood, Miss.): Is D.J. Davis' stock still rising or has he leveled off? John Manuel: Back up a bit after his horrid 2014. That was a bad year; he repeated a level in 2015 but did make some adjustments. Always liked the tools, we’ll see if he can show some more aptitude going up to high A next year. Sean (DC): Are we looking at a Mookie Betts type upside on Alford? Ellsbury? Some other Red Sox? John Manuel: Ha .. maybe Ellsbury in his non-30 HR season. I don’t see that kind of home run power with AA but hey, we never thought that would happen with Ellsbury, and he’s never repeated it. Mookie, to me, is more dynamic. @Jaypers413 (IL): Where would Hoffman have ranked on this list? John Manuel: Probably No. 1. We were debating his grade in the office this a.m. Still debating it! Jon (Brampton, ON): Not really a Jays questions, but will the Prospect book be available for purchase as a electronic version, or only hard copy? John Manuel: Only hard copy. Maybe we’ll figure out the digital version that can’t be shared and can be easily sold one day, but I’m not in IT. I don’t think we’ve figured that out yet. Jonny (Brampton, ON): Deep hard throwing bullpens seem to be the way baseball is going now, at least that has been the Royals formula. Who are some arms across the Jays system that may fit this trend moving forward? John Manuel: They don’t have a lot of those guys right now, but they found some of them in the majors, a guy like Liam Hendriks was that kind of guy (a guy I ranked in the past as a Twin …).Sean Reid-Foley is that kind of guy. But they are lighter on power arms than they would like to be except for at the very low levels. Ringo (Octopusses Garden): Tell me everything you know about Yennsy Diaz right this minute! John Manuel: A) You didn’t ask nicely. Buy the Handbook, it will all be in there. Rob (Toronto, ON): Toronto seems to have a lot of interesting guys at lower levels. What's your take on Travis Bergen who only got to pitch a handful of innings but dominated? John Manuel: Bergen is a low-slot lefty, sort of like Girodo though if I recall correctly he’s not quite as low slot. He’s firmer than Girodo and has a better breaking ball. He has a chance to move quickly if he takes to a relief role well. John Manuel: I apologize for shaming the honor of Clint and only chatting for 90 minutes as opposed to 5 hours; I didn’t load up on steak and strawberries today. But I also have to finish the Prospect Handbook with all the rest of the fine BA staff. I really appreciate the interest. The Blue Jays were my first top 30 back in the original Handbook, so it was fun to do that organization again. Yankees on Monday with Josh Norris. Enjoy Ice Bear and have a great weekend.

Well BA had him 2 spots lower than BP (would also like to point out that they put the Judge below Gary Sanchez too. The chat ripped Judge but still said they expect him to be in the top 100

Extraordinarily Nerdy Union of Fantasy Fanatics

Elimination dynasty. 20 teams start bottom two are eliminated each year and their players are put into the waiver draft. Runs 5 years combined standings over the 5 years of the last 10 establish the winner

Did one person offer up the purpose of a Dynasty League be "fun" or "entertaining"...just wondering.

Edwin Jackson.

I'm here to let everyone know that this is common for TRM. He can't be trusted or expected to keep his word. Signed, Adam Greenwood

Expos employees loved Loria. 80% went with him. It's as a baseball fan you are obligated to hate everything about Jeffrey Loria

come on...in what way would a taco and a hotdog go together

I was thinking that the middle should be revealed first. The Average

Jonah is pretty legit, he wouldn't post something he hadn't actually heard (doesn't mean it's correct of course). One of the rumours is that he's going to work there as the TV Analyst though.

Marlins TV Analyst is hilarious and I hope true. That's better than Amaro the 1st base coach

Is that $75m a year on top of last years $100m?

I realize I'm breaking several board violations here but I think it had to be done. http://i.imgur.com/GWHSd4F.jpg?1

so we agree Dinger is dumm

That gives picks after the first 10 some actual value potentially. I don't think that's a bad idea.

isn't having an Elite league with BBDL winners like including AAA players in the MLB All Star game? If Speedy needs a Co-Manager he has it...it's my only Dynasty League success

i start to post pics of Min if we don't see something by midnight

Houston did well in 2012. Most of their drafts have been a complete s*** show. I suppose you mean this year where they went managed to get Cameron, Bregman and Tucker by going underslot on Bregman. Of course they threw away an entire draft to do that.

I think it's Sanchez. I know it won't be my choice.

We need to know who is the ugliest right now...Min needs to forget about that IRL job and finish the job here.

Tanking in baseball would be a horrible strategy IMO. Tanking, or even tearing it down would be horrible for the Jays right now too. Everything worked out pretty well for the Cubs but there is no assurance that anyone could replicate that again (honestly Epstein played fantasy GM and it worked out)

come on now, name still has to end in a vowel...oh wait Chris Cooper slipped in there. Never mind!

25-21 today 20-16 tomorrow 15-11 December 23 10-6 December 24 5-1 Merry Christmas to us all.

This is probably in another thread but Mexico has asked for Estrada, Osuna and A.A. Ron Sanchez to play in the WBC qualifier in March