Tank thread (for 18th overall pick)

[Olerud363.354]

Laika closed the playoff thread.  It will apparently remain closed unless Jays get 2 games back of playoff spot. 

This thread replaces it.  This is not a joke.  This thread should not be closed.  It can be locked in the unlikely chance the Jays get 2 games back of a playoff spot and no longer tanking for the 18th pick. 

I think though if we win between 68 and 72 games we have an excellent chance for the 18th overall pick (8th overall + our 10 pick penalty).  If we win more than 72, say 75 we probably get the 12th + 10 penalty picks = 22nd.  Yes there is a lottery, but we all know Jays aren't moving up to a top 5 pick or anything in a lottery.  So 18th to 22nd it is, and we root to get as low as possible so we have a better chance to get the next Tucker Toman or Chad Jenkins. 

Tank for the 18th pick.  Every loss brings us closer.   Not a joke, do not close unless the tanking fails and the Playoff thread is re-opened.  All scoreboard watching switches to Angels, As, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Rockies.   By my count we are 11th = 21st pick.  Need to drop a few more.  We root for the jays to lose, those teams to win.  18th pick.  So much better than the 22nd.  Start tank standings watch now. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

IF you do not like this thread and want it closed... fair enough.  There is one way to close it.  Jays get back within 2 games of playoff spot.  Want it closed.  Work on that.  Call your contacts in the Jays organization with your ideas to get Jays back to within 2 games.  Tell them they need to do it to get this horrible thread closed. 

[Olerud363.354]

To keep it all straight here is who we root for tonight in the quest for the 18th overall pick.  It's actually a bit confusing because our new rivals have to win, while we have to lose.  Some of the same teams we were fighting for the playoff spot are in this too (Seattle, Detroit, Minnesota), but now we root for them to win. 

1.  Seattle at Toronto - Seattle

2. KC at Cleveland - KC

3. Houston at NY Mets - Mets

4. Pittsburgh at St. Louis - Pittsburgh

5. LAD at Detroit - Detroit

6. CWS at Minnesota - Minnesota

[Brownie19]

What record do we need to achieve to tank enough to avoid the 10 spot penalty?

[Olerud363.354]

2 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

What record do we need to achieve to tank enough to avoid the 10 spot penalty?

My understanding is it is up to chance.   I actually did a bit of research here.  Happy to be corrected if wrong.

The top 6 are chosen by lottery.  The worst we finish, the more lottery balls, and if we end up in top 6 after lottery no penalty.  There are some nasty scenarios that could happen.   The worst being we finish 5th last but don't get a lottery pick, and another team behind us doesn't and we go back to 8th, then the penalty applies and go back to 18th.  

It's pretty sick actually.   A little bit of dark humor about the '18th pick' but that is probably our most 'likely pick'.    Our possible picks are 1-6, or 17th to 22nd.   We can't pick between 7 and 16th no matter what.   That is my understanding at least.   The worse we are the better chance we get a lottery pick but it is up to fate.

 

[Olerud363.354]

Not a great night in the quest for the 18th draft pick.  However do not lose faith.  25 games left where that draft pick can be ours. 

Toronto 8 Seattle 1 - not great.  Seattle now leads us 1.5 games for the pick. 

Brewers 4 Rangers 1 - wrong way again.  Texas now only 1 game ahead of us for more lottery balls

Dodgers 2 Tigers 1 - this is bad.  Tigers now 3 games ahead of us for the lottery balls

Royals 3 Guardians 0 - This is a bit bad.  We want Royals and Guardians to win.  Guardians gain a game on us for the lottery.

It's a bit weird keeping track of this because you have to reverse things in your brain, but as far as I can see on the first night of tanking for the 18th pick (and lottery balls for top 6) everything went wrong so far.  Insane!

Still some games in progress. 

[Olerud363.354]

So far a better day.  This Mariners rookie is helping us get the pick we need to get the next Chad Jenkins. 

Now you might think if we tank enough we got lots of lottery balls and might get a player just like this Mariners kid, who they got at 3rd overall when a lottery ball bounced the Mariners way. 

Now get it out of your mind.  We are not getting a lottery ball to bounce our way to get a Kade Anderson.  

But it we lose today (and it is early but looking OK so far) we might get 8th pick, which is 18th with our penalty. 

And there maybe a Chad Jenkins, or maybe if we are lucky a kid who will do OK at New Hampshire and we can trade for the next Jose Berrios/Jose Soriano in 2031. 

[Olerud363.354]

Cal Raleigh up again.  C'mon Jose give him another meatball.

Then we will get closer to getting a pick who won't be exciting enough to keep forever and we can trade for another 27 year old Jose, who will put up a 3.67 ERA and somewhat disappoint us. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

Never getting the playoff thread open again.  Screw this team.  

The road to the playoffs was Soriano pitching well and he's been thoroughly unimpressive.  Bad outings last 2. 

Never getting a top 6 pick either.  10 pick penalty and getting a waste of space next year at 18th or whatever. 

Cade Anderson represents the joy we will never have.   The 18th represents the fiasco of a 50th season.  Every single piece of goodwill gone.  Soriano will be worse than Berrios.  NImmala getting hot and running .410 on base percentage with the angels. 

Scherzer will be destroyed tomorrow as Mariners win series and the fans better not hold back. boo every Vlad ground ball in tomorrow's 10-1 loss as Mariners win series. 

Ha ha.  Putting this nonsense up on Buck Martinez today.  

[Olerud363.354]

Whether it was Grant -- or someone else -- God hates us this year.  Every dog has it's day, we had ours 83-93, 2016-16, and 2021-2025, not quite the ending we wanted, but this year is cursed and the future is bleak. 

The Vlad contract, the 18th pick,  Soriano pitching like the worst version of Berrios. 

Mariners - Red Sox ALCS.  Book it.  Cade Anderson  ALCS MVP

3rd overall pick.  135 - 13 k/bb in AA.  And Jays fans get excited about these guys like Johny King walking 40 in 60 innings.   

 

[Olerud363.354]

This THREAD can be closed under 2 circumstances both of which will never happen. 

1.  The Jays get back within 2 games of the wild card this year (with the exception of being already eliminated, like if they get within 2 games on the last day thread remains open).

2.  Jays get a top 6 pick.  If a lottery ball goes the right way the thread can be closed.

Otherwise this thread remains upon for all time, and I will track every at bat (or pitch) of whatever god-awful player we choose at 18 (or whatever it is 17-20) next year. 

Then when that players gets hot in New Hampshire and is traded for an over-rated pitcher like Berrios or Soriano I will track that pitcher in the thread to the end of time.

 

[Olerud363.354]

Pulling this s*** on Buck Martinez day... god-damnit this team.  Destroy all good will.  I think the goal is to ruin the franchise for-ever

Get back into the wild card race, to get viewership up so they can absolutely crush and destroy the new fans, the young fans, so they never watch again.   Teach them that every happy moment turns sad.  Every exciting player turns to a pumpkin.  Every trade goes as wrong as possible. 

[Olerud363.354]

This thread.. which I have poured my heart into... now may be closed.  My work gone.  My thoughts ignored.  The 'in crowd' laughing in their reopened 'playoff thread' thread....  such is life.  In the end.  All we do.  Is for naught.  Unless the Guardians can save me. 

[Omar]

[SpencerBateman]

Oh wow I was not aware of this thread.  I thought it was one of those high IQ analytics threads and I usually don’t click on them because I can’t calculate a war and I use baseball reference not fan graph

like spanky and some of the other girls or guys I am out of my depth and you will get called out quick if you don’t know about iso and launch angles and fip 

but good luck on future pursuits 

my thread will now take priority 

[Laika]

We are so back

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

12% chance at getting a top 6 pick through the lottery

#LetUsPray 

Even with the 10 spot penalty the worst they will pick is maybe 25th? 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

We are so back

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

12% chance at getting a top 6 pick through the lottery

#LetUsPray 

Even with the 10 spot penalty the worst they will pick is maybe 25th? 

By my calculation we are currently 13th worst.

So 13 pick = 23

If we finish strong we could be 16th worst = 26 pick

If we finish weak we could be 11th worse (Minnesota and St. Louise could pass us) = 21st pick. 

12 % chance pick is top 6

88 % chance pick is 21-25th

Typical picks at 21-25 level

Chad Jenkins, Mike Trout, Eury Perez.

Eury Perez is already picked, but what I mean is in 2 years the pick will be converted to Eury Perez, then become not quite Mike Trout but good. 

Eury Perez will be 9-11 3.98 with some 4 run innings at the worst times before getting Tommy John with the 2029 78-84 Blue Jays. 

[Olerud363.354]

13th last it is

12% chance to pick top 3

88 % chance to pick 23

Who will we get?  

a) the next Chad Jenkins

b) the next Mike Trout but we'll trade him for the next Jose Berrios/Jose Soriano which I think is Eury Perez.

Pray for the next Chad Jenkins.  Would have been useful this year.  I do not want this draft pick converted to Eury Perez.