Answer: W.C. Fields, Kevin Gausman and Jeff Hoffman

[Bob Ritchie]

W.C. Fields was an American actor, comedian, and writer. Among many things, he was famous for suggesting that his gravestone would read "Here Lies / W. C. Fields / I Would Rather Be Living in Philadelphia." With the MLB trade deadline approaching, could Kevin Gausman and Jeff Hoffman soon be living in Philadelphia?

After the games of July 23, the Toronto Blue Jays have a 47-56 win-loss record and are six games out of a Wild Card spot. Currently, according to FanGraphs, Toronto has less than a 10 percent probability of making the 2026 postseason. One can presume that the Blue Jays will be sellers before the August 3 trade deadline.

Philadelphia is in second place in the National League East division, four and a half games behind the Atlanta Braves. With 59 games remaining, the Phillies could catch the Braves and capture the division title. In terms of securing a playoff spot, FanGraphs lists Philadelphia’s chances at 84.3%. The Phillies are likely to be trade deadline buyers, and both Gausman and Hoffman may be of interest to Philadelphia.

Concerning starting pitchers, the Phillies have a 10.9 fWAR, MLB’s fourth-highest. However, 10.2 of that fWAR total is attributed to three starters: Cristopher Sánchez (4.2), Jesús Luzardo (3.4) and Zack Wheeler (3.0). Aaron Nola, who is in the third year of a seven-year, $172 million contract, has generated a 0.6 fWAR. Currently, Philadelphia’s fifth starter is 28-year-old Alan Rangel, who has recorded a 0.1 fWAR in 23 innings, together with a 5.40 ERA, 4.12 xERA and a 4.91 FIP. Andrew Painter, Philadelphia’s highly-touted prospect, made his MLB debut this season. After he posted a 7.36 ERA, 5.59 xERA, and 5.87 FIP in 55 innings, the Phillies optioned Painter to the minors in mid-June.

The Gausman-Philly fit is obvious, and given Philadelphia is not on Gausman’s no-trade list, doable. Although Gausman has struggled in his last six starts (6.14 xERA, 5.09 FIP and 35 Game Score), and his 2026 4.51 ERA, 4.01 xERA and 3.68 FIP exceed his Blue Jay numbers before this season, Gausman (2.2 fWAR) would be a solid addition for the Phillies. By comparison, Nola’s season-to-date numbers are worse: 5.82 ERA, 4.30 xERA and 5.06 FIP. In his last six starts, Nola recorded a 4.24 xERA, 6.04 FIP and 42 Game Score. Based upon 2026 numbers, Gausman would slide into the No. 4 starter slot, thereby moving Nola to No. 5 and Rangel out of the rotation.

By adding Gausman, Philadelphia would strengthen its rotation, thereby improving its chances of overtaking Atlanta for the division title. Also, given that teams typically use four starters in the postseason, with the top three handling the bulk of the starts, the Gausman addition gives Philadelphia a valuable choice (Gausman or Nola) for the fourth spot in a postseason starting rotation.

Concerning Hoffman, Philadelphia, like any contender, will add to its bullpen. Also, during the most recent offseason, the Phillies signed Brad Keller to a two-year, $22 million contract. However, on July 16, Philadelphia placed Keller on the 15-day injured list with a torn UCL. Surgery remains an option, and Keller is likely finished for the balance of the 2026 campaign. Hence, an opening for a Hoffman acquisition. 

No doubt some will question why Philadelphia would be interested in Hoffman. Hoffman is no longer Toronto’s closer, and he has had more than a few less-than-ideal outings. However, his overall numbers are particularly good. Regarding xERA, whiff rate, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate, his percentile rankings are 75th, 98th, 97th and 88th, respectively. Keller has corresponding percentile rankings of 75th, 29th, 57th and 89th, respectively.

Furthermore, in terms of roles, 75% of Keller’s relief appearances occurred in the seventh and eighth innings, whereas 56% of Hoffman’s outings occurred during the same innings. Hoffman also has 14 ninth-inning appearances, eight more than Keller. In the seventh and eighth innings, Keller has a .263 xwOBA, a tad higher than Hoffman’s .255 (MLB Average xwOBA is 0.317). Notably, Hoffman found his reliever niche in Philadelphia as recently as 2024 and is therefore familiar with the team and city. Lastly, he is under contract for 2027, which makes him especially attractive to Philadelphia if Keller undergoes Tommy John surgery and misses most, if not all, of the 2027 season. He is an ideal candidate to be Keller’s replacement.

There are two additional matters to address. First, both Toronto’s and Philadelphia’s payrolls for Competitive Balance Tax purposes exceed the highest threshold ($304 million). Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects Toronto’s 2026 CBT payroll to be $321.3 million and Philadelphia’s to be $317.0 million. Toronto, as a second-time payor, pays a 90% tax on any dollar that exceeds $304 million, whereas Philadelphia, as a third-time CBT payor, pays 110%. Assuming an August 3 Gausman-Hoffman trade to Philadelphia, and ignoring the players acquired by Toronto, Toronto would save $19.2 million: salary ($10.5 million) and CBT ($8.7 million). Philadelphia, because of its higher CBT rate, would incur an additional $21.2 million cash outlay: salary ($10.5 million) and CBT ($10.7 million). In Philadelphia’s case, the Gausman-Hoffman 2026 cash hit may or may not be an issue. On one hand, Philadelphia’s Dave Dombrowski is not reluctant to spend money on player payroll. On the other hand, $21.2 million is $21.2 million.

The other matter worthy of note would be Toronto’s return for Gausman and Hoffman. Jays Centre’s Matthew Creally suggested an A-minus prospect and a deep sleeper, or two mid-range prospects, for Gausman alone. What could a Philadelphia package look like if Toronto sent both Gausman and Hoffman?

A good place to start is Baseball Trade Values (“BTV”). For a description of how BTV values minor league prospects, refer to this outline and to this post concerning valuing major leaguers. A benefit of using BTV for analyzing trade packages is its third-party objectivity. 

So, what are the trade values of Gausman and Hoffman? Per BTV, Gausman has a trade value of $3.8 million, and Hoffman’s value is minus $6.8 million. In theory, a Gausman-Hoffman package is worth negative $3 million. However, in my opinion, their value is much higher for three reasons. First, Philadelphia is a motivated buyer, and second, relievers tend to have more value at the trade deadline than earlier in the season. The third and last reason for a higher value for the Gausman-Hoffman package is that Toronto is probably looking for a reset amid a disappointing 2026 campaign. Accordingly, they would like to retain Hoffman, who is under contract for next season. Hoffman may have disappointed as a closer, but he is a valuable reliever out of the bullpen and would be for the 2027 Blue Jays. Hence, Philadelphia would need to “overpay” for Hoffman in particular for Toronto to consider including Hoffman in a trade.

What Philadelphia prospects would be fair value for Gausman and Hoffman? Well, probably at least a top-five prospect. In their November 10, 2025 report (subscription required), Jarrett Seidler and the Baseball Prospectus staff began the evaluation of the team's No. 6 prospect (Dante Nori) with the sentence, "And here’s exactly where the system goes off a cliff." Likewise, The Athletic’s Keith Law opined in his January 26, 2026, ranking of all farm systems (subscription required) that “the Phillies have three top-50 prospects, all three of whom could be stars (but only one of whom is really on that path right now), and another on the top 100, but there’s a big dropoff after that.” Since the Baseball Prospectus and Law’s articles were published, Aidan Miller (Law’s #1 Phillies prospect) suffered a back injury and has yet to play this season.

Therefore, Toronto should insist upon either Gage Wood ($17.3 million BTV sticker price) or Justin Crawford ($18.5 million BTV price). According to Baseball America’s July 20, 2026, report and MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings, Wood is Philadelphia’s No. 1 prospect. Crawford, son of former MLB player Carl Crawford, made his MLB debut this season and is on Philadelphia’s 26-man roster. He has posted a 78 wRC+ in 298 plate appearances with little power (.087 ISO). If Philadelphia balks at trading Crawford to Toronto because he is currently on the MLB roster, Toronto could send Daulton Varsho, who has a $3.4 million BTV price, along for the ride to Philadelphia!

The Last Word

If the Toronto Blue Jays become sellers at the trade deadline, they should trade their impending free agents, such as Gausman, and also consider trades including players under contract in 2027 (for example, Hoffman). The Philadelphia Phillies are widely known to be on the hunt for a starter and a set-up bullpen arm. Historically, teams have sent several mid-level prospects in exchange for either a Gausman-like or a Hoffman-like player. However, because it would be a Gausman-Hoffman package, and given Philadelphia’s top-heavy but not deep prospect pool, Toronto should require a top-five Philadelphia prospect/young player in exchange for Gausman and Hoffman.

"Philadelphia, wonderful town, spent a week there one night."
-W.C. Fields 

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