Blue Jays Clutch Plays: The Week of the Ern Dog

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

The Blue Jays began the week in dire straits, further spiraling from their weekend collapse in Baltimore by stumbling to losses in the first two games of their series in Atlanta. Despite facing Chris Sale on a bullpen day in the series finale, though, they pulled through to avoid the sweep and then took two of three from the Orioles at home over the weekend. After yet another uneven week in which they continued to do just enough to maintain their place in the standings, they're within two games of .500 with the Phillies coming to town on Monday.

Pitching

3. Braydon Fisher: Pete Alonso Strikeout, Top 1, 6/6 (+7.7% WPA)

Toronto pitchers didn't find themselves in a truly perilous situation once this week, so while none of these plays will necessarily stand out at the end of the season, it gives us a good opportunity to appreciate some moments that would otherwise fall under the radar. Braydon Fisher fanning Pete Alonso in the first inning on Saturday is a great example. After the first two batters reached and moved into scoring position, Fisher got Alonso and then Coby Mayo to navigate through the danger.

2. Connor Seabold: Blaze Alexander Force Out, Top 7, 6/7 (+9.5% WPA)

MLB decided not to post a video of this force out that the Jays got on a bunt play, but we promise it happened! It also ended up playing a sizeable role in the Blue Jays escaping the seventh inning en route to the series win on Sunday. The #9 hitter, Blaze Alexander, laid down a bunt with runners on first and second with one out in a one-run game, but it backfired as Brandon Valenzuela was able to force Tyler O'Neill at third. Instead of having a second-and-third situation with one out, runners remained at first and second, which matters because...

1. Tyler Rogers: Taylor Ward GIDP, Top 7, 6/7 (+17.5% WPA)

...Tyler Rogers came in and promptly induced an inning-ending double play. Here, Taylor Ward fell behind 0-2 on a couple of sinkers but laid off a couple of sliders to stay alive. So, Rogers went right back to the bowling-ball sinker, and Ward topped it, spinning it to Ernie Clement at second to start the 4-6-3. Rogers would get two more outs in relief in the eighth as well.

Hitting

3. Kazuma Okamoto: 2-run HR, Top 2, 6/2 (+18.2% WPA)

This is the one big knock the Jays managed against Bryce Elder in Tuesday night's loss to the Braves. With the runner in motion at first on the payoff pitch, Kazuma Okamoto got a sinker that Elder left a little too high over the outer half of the plate and launched it the other way into the seats in front of Atlanta's signature Chop House to tie the game.

2. Brandon Valenzuela: 2-run HR, Bot 5, 6/5 (+23.4% WPA)

Valenzuela has turned into a revelation at catcher. The rookie backstop is on fire with the bat in his hands, and on Friday night, he punished a hanging breaking ball that Brandon Young visibly regretted as soon as it left his hand. Things would unravel soon after this in the only game the Jays lost over the weekend, but Valenzuela is now up to seven home runs after adding a blast on Sunday and leads Toronto position players in fWAR.

1. Ernie Clement: 3-run HR, Bot 3, 6/6 (+26.1% WPA)

Clement was in the middle of everything during the Jays' consecutive wins against the Orioles on Saturday and Sunday. He got a hanging breaker himself here from Kyle Bradish, and while he didn't hit it that hard or far, he did what he does best: caught the ball out front and pulled it. Baltimore made it close later on but failed to regain the lead as this homer broke the game open and paved the way for Toronto to tie, and eventually win, the series.

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