An anSWeR to the Blue Jays’ Starting Pitching Woes?

[Jim Scott]

 

The Jays need pitching.

Their top three of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage have all been excellent, with xERAs ranking in the top 20 in the American League (min. 35 IP). And Patrick Corbin has – so far – outperformed his 5.26 xERA with a strong 3.65 ERA. Yet, with Cease’s injury and Corbin’s bubble at risk of bursting, the Jays could badly use another MLB-ready starter.

Someone like Simeon Woods Richardson, recently DFA'd by the Minnesota Twins.

SWR has struggled in 2026, with a 7.74 ERA and declines in every conventional pitching statistic. So, why might the Jays be interested?

Age and Control

SWR comes with considerable risk. That is not necessarily a determining factor. Risk can be acceptable if it comes with a commensurate return. If the Jays were to gamble on “fixing” SWR, they would want to know that he will not retire next season – or leave as a free agent. In that respect, SWR is an attractive gamble. He is only 25 years old, and with less than two years of service time entering 2026, he will not be a free agent until 2031. So if the Jays did succeed in turning him around, the benefits could be long-term

Price

Woods Richardson is still in his pre-arbitration years, earning only $796,000 in 2026. He would only enter arbitration for the first time this coming offseason. That makes him cheap enough that the financial side of the gamble would be minimal.

Pedigree

SWR is having a poor 2026, but his performance from 2024-25 gives considerable cause for optimism. Consider this table:

Pitcher	IP	ERA	xERA	SIERA
Kevin Gausman	374	3.71	4.24	4.01
José Berríos	382	3.81	4.74	4.4
Chris Bassitt	341.1	4.07	4.35	4.13
Simeon Woods Richardson	245	4.08	3.83	4.48

 

On an xERA basis, SWR outperformed all three of the Jays’ top three starters over those two years.  If he could return to that level, he would be – at a minimum – a solid No. 3 starter. And if Cease, Gausman, Yesavage, and Shane Bieber were ahead of him in the rotation, he could be one of the very best No. 5s in all of baseball.

Fit

One likely reason for SWR’s xERA being lower than his ERA is the Twins’ defence. SWR is not a power, strikeout pitcher. His fastball only averages 93 mph, and he strikes out less than a batter per inning. He needs a strong defensive team behind him. In 2025, Minnesota’s -12.4 team Def (as calculated by FanGraphs) was 22^nd in the majors. Toronto’s +38.8 was first. The xERA stat is calculated on the basis that every ball is hit into an “average environment,” so it is entirely possible that, with an elite defence behind him, SWR could even outperform his 2024-25 xERA.

Fly Balls

SWR is a flyball pitcher.  His career air rate of 64.1% is substantially higher than the MLB average of 55.8%. So, he needs an elite outfield defence. What about one led by someone like, say, Daulton Varsho – whose +34 OAA in the outfield since 2023 is fifth best in baseball. And that is despite multiple injuries and his having to play in left and right field as well as centre.

The Projections

The major baseball projection systems all predict a recovery for SWR over the remainder of 2026. Steamer projects a 4.12 ERA, while ZIPS projects 4.66. These are only projections, and many of them envision limited innings and a move to the bullpen, but there is still a consensus that his current 7.74 ERA does not tell the whole story.

The Red Flags

With all that said, there are still red flags. SWR’s split-finger fastball, a major weapon in 2025 with a 32.7% whiff rate and a .168 xwOBA, is at 20.4% and .427 so far in 2026. But this is despite improved velocity and better vertical and horizontal movement.  Could the issue be that the increased usage of his splitter – from 10% in 2025 to almost 27% in 2026 – has reduced the “surprise factor”? Or could the drop in velocity differential between his splitter and four-seamer (7.1 mph in 2025, 6.0 in 2026) have had an impact?

The Bottom Line

Without question, SWR is struggling.  And there is no guarantee that the Jays’ defence (which is itself struggling to repeat its 2025 performance) and a healthy dose of Pete Walker magic will be enough to turn the 2026 frog back into the 2025 handsome prince. But the financial risk is small, the potential upside larger, and the need even larger still. It may be true that SWR’s future “ain’t what it used to be,” but it is equally true that “it is tough to make predictions – especially about the future.”

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