Blue Jays Clutch Plays: Kazuma Okamoto Is Taking Charge

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

For the second consecutive week, the Blue Jays climbed a little closer to .500 after digging themselves quite a hole in early April. Things started well with a key series win against a divisional opponent in the form of the hapless Red Sox, and they had a chance to take 3 of 4 from the Twins on the weekend but were stymied on Sunday by a bullpen they spent the previous two games feasting on. After settling for the split, they're now 16-18 and are 9-5 in their last 14 games. Here are the plays most worth remembering from this past week.

Pitching

3. Dylan Cease: Ceddanne Rafaela Groundout, Top 4, 4/27 (+5.5% wPA)

 

Last Monday's opener against Boston had the makings of an all-time pitcher's duel, but Dylan Cease ultimately failed to outdo Ranger Suárez in the end. At the time of this play, though, the Jays were still very much in it. Even against the bottom of the order, a 3-2 pitch with runners on the corners and two outs in a 1-0 game is highly consequential, and Cease got Ceddanne Rafaela to roll over a slider just off the high-and-outside corner to escape the threat.

2. Dylan Cease: Ryan Jeffers Flyout, Bot 3, 5/2 (+5.8% wPA)

With a runner on third and one out, Cease was not looking to induce anything in the air past the infield, especially with his team already down by a run, although a sac fly might've been considered a victory against Ryan Jeffers, who tormented the Blue Jays in April. And yet, even with Daulton Varsho's weaker throwing arm in center field, Jeffers couldn't quite get this one deep enough to score Trevor Larnach, and the game remained 3-2.

1. Braydon Fisher: Willson Contreras GIDP, Top 5, 4/29 (+11.7% wPA)

It wasn't the most notable week for Jays pitchers in the single-play win probability department, due to the way the club's wins played out on the scoreboard, so Braydon Fisher getting Willson Contreras to ground into a double play on Wednesday afternoon stands as the Clutch Play of the Week for the staff. Of course, had Contreras even singled, Toronto's lead would've gotten uncomfortable in a hurry, so this was a timely grounder that set the stage for the offense to break the game open in the later innings.

Hitters

3. Kazuma Okamoto: 2-RBI Single, Bot 3, 4/29 (+16.1% wPA)

Kazuma Okamoto's stance adjustment to cover the outer half of the plate paid dividends here, as Brayan Bello's backdoor sinker leaked a little too far into the zone. He didn't try to do too much with it, rifling it into left-center field for a base hit to give the Blue Jays a lead they wouldn't relinquish. These bases-loaded situations gave Okamoto fits at the outset of his MLB career, but after this week, it's safe to say he's built for the moment.

2. Kazuma Okamoto: 2-RBI Single, Bot 3, 4/28 (+17.5% wPA)

Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle made Okamoto look silly the pitch before this, blowing a perfectly located fastball by him to even the count. He doubled down with two strikes but couldn't elevate, and his reaction as soon as he let it go says it all. Okamoto turned on it, lacing it over the head of Roman Anthony and off the left field wall on a bounce. He tried to stretch it into a double but was thrown out, a call which surprisingly wasn't overturned after video review. Still, this hit was all the pitching staff needed; they shut Boston out and evened the series.

1. Kazuma Okamoto: RBI Single, Top 8, 5/2 (+25.4% wPA)

It's a clean sweep for Okamoto, who was a man possessed last week. This wasn't even close to his farthest hit of the week, but by WPA, it was the most important, tying the game in the eighth and setting the stage for what would become an eight-run inning as the Jays stormed back to win 11-4 on Saturday. What's ironic is that Luis Garcia got the groundball he wanted here, but Okamoto hit it hard enough and took it right back up the middle to avoid the double play. The Jays simply wouldn't have been able to make it a winning week if it weren't for his efforts.

View full article