The Blue Jays' Unwillingness To Be Aggressive on the Bases Is an Issue

[Bryan Jaeger]

The Toronto Blue Jays started their season with a three-game sweep over the Athletics. Since then, Toronto has gone 7-13, including losing five of six games to the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago White Sox, the two worst teams last season. It's not the start the team or fans had hoped for after their World Series trip last fall. 

There have been issues across the board that explain why the team has struggled. However, the offense has been a massive problem. Among all MLB teams, the Blue Jays rank 23rd in runs, 23rd in home runs, and 18th in OPS (following their game on April 22). Another glaring issue has been Toronto's unwillingness to be aggressive on the bases. 

The Blue Jays are tied for 28th in stolen bases with only eight on the season. This part of the game has not been a priority for the past four seasons, since John Schneider took over as manager, and their run total has been noticeable. In each of those four seasons, the Blue Jays ranked in the bottom half of the league in stolen bases but still finished in the top half in runs, except in 2024, their only losing season of the four. These teams relied on their above-average on-base and slugging skills to score runs and win games. 

Year	Record	Runs Scored (MLB Rank)	Stolen Bases (MLB Rank)	OPS (MLB Rank)
2022	92-70	775 (4th)	67 (21st)	.760 (2nd)
2023	89-73	746 (14th)	99 (21st)	.746 (11th)
2024	74-88	671 (23rd)	72 (27th)	.702 (17th)
2025	94-68	798 (4th)	77 (28th)	.760 (3rd)

On the season, only five Blue Jays have a stolen base: Andrés Giménez has four, and Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. each have one. With the team struggling to score runs this season, a philosophy change may be needed until the power numbers improve — their .695 OPS right now isn't cutting it. 

None of the players on the current roster, perhaps excepting Giménez, seems to have the desire to steal. Since 2022, Giménez has the highest stolen base percentage per opportunity, but it is only 2.2 percent. However, according to Baseball Savant, the Blue Jays have nine players whose sprint speeds were at or above the MLB average of 27 feet per second as recently as last season. Those players are Giménez, Varsho, Springer, Clement, Myles Straw, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, and Jesús Sánchez.

Under the disengagement rule (affecting pick-off attempts or steps off the rubber) implemented in 2023, pitchers are allowed to attempt two disengagements per batter. If they try to pick a runner off a third time, they have to get the runner out, or else it's called a balk and the runner advances a base. This rule, along with larger bases and the pitch clock, has led to an increase in stolen base attempts across the league.

So, the Blue Jays have the means to change their philosophy around stealing bases and getting runners in scoring position. Their power has been slow to get started this season, so they need to make a change to start scoring more runs. When a team has a steal threat on first base, it puts pressure on the defense. They will shift players accordingly, which opens holes, but the Blue Jays don't encounter this. Teams know the Blue Jays likely won't steal, so they can play their normal double play or shift positioning depending on the batter. 

With a below-average OPS, Toronto is currently on pace to finish worse than in 2024, when they finished last in the AL East. It may be the time to make some changes and increase their aggressiveness on the basepaths. 

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[mphenhef]

Who is going to make this happen on this roster?  The Jays just don't have the speed tool to make this happen.  This regime has definitely prioritized the hit and defense tools over power and speed tools.  Take a look at their sprint speeds on Baseball Savant.

Straw - 29.2 (95th  percentile)

Gimenez - 28.1 (80)

Clement - 27.1 (51)

Sosa - 27.0 (49)

Lukes - 26.8 (43)

Schneider - 26.6 (38)

Varsho - 26.5 (36)

Vlad - 26.2 (30)

Kaz -  25.7 (20)

Eloy - 25.4 (16)

Jesus - 25.1 (12)

Heineman - 24.5 (5)

Valenzuela - 24.0 (3)

 

 

They have three players in the top 50 percentile and one of them barely snuck in. Their fastest guy is on the wrong side of the platoon.  Sure a smart player (See Naylor, Josh) can make steals happen despite low speed but the Jays don't have guys like that imo.