Blue Jays Clutch Plays: Week 1

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

There are still 153 games left, and most of the AL East has fallen on hard times as well, but it felt like a cursed week for the Blue Jays. After putting themselves in a good position to pounce on the soft early portion of the schedule by sweeping the Athletics, they followed it up by dropping two of three to the Rockies and getting swept by the Chicago White Sox. They scored three runs per game across the two series. Cody Ponce and Alejandro Kirk were placed on the IL, Brendon Little was optioned to Triple A, and Addison Barger was removed from Sunday's game after injuring himself trying to leg out an infield hit. They head into a World Series rematch with the Dodgers at 4-5. Here are some of the lone bright spots from the past week.

Pitching

3. Tyler Rogers: Miguel Vargas Force Out, Bot 9, 4/3 (+11.4% WPA)

With the winning run on base in the bottom of the ninth during Friday's opener in Chicago, Tyler Rogers elected to intentionally walk the slugging Munetaka Murakami and take his chances with Miguel Vargas instead. It ended up being a wise move, as he got a second-pitch groundout to third. All Kazuma Okamoto had to do was step on the bag to send the game to extras.

2. Mason Fluharty: Ezequiel Tovar Strikeout, Top 8, 4/1 (+14.3% WPA)

After the Rockies scored the tying run in the eighth against Tommy Nance, Mason Fluharty was in a tough spot with the go-ahead run 90 feet away and just one out. He got Ezequiel Tovar here on three pitches and struck out Ryan Ritter immediately after, walking the tightrope out of danger for the Blue Jays to keep the rubber match of the series tied and send it to the bottom of the eighth.

1. Jeff Hoffman: Austin Hays Strikeout, Top 10, 4/3 (+25.5% WPA)

Lost in the painful ending to Friday afternoon's game was this slider that Jeff Hoffman curled just below the inside corner to strike out Austin Hays with the tying run on third. It put the Blue Jays on the doorstep of a come-from-behind win that would've spoiled the belated opening day festivities at Rate Field. Their win probability was 83.1% immediately after this pitch, but the White Sox were victorious just two batters later.

Hitting

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 2-run HR, Top 6, 4/4 (+26.0% WPA)

It's a shame how short-lived this was. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had yet to tap into his power much at all this year until Saturday. He struck out in the first and flew out to the left field wall in the fourth. He got another pitch on the inner half of the zone in the sixth and didn't miss it, launching his first home run and flipping the scoreboard in the process. The ball travelled 437 feet after jumping off his bat at 108.5 mph, a homer in all 30 parks.

2. George Springer: Reached on Error, Top 10, 4/3 (+28.2% WPA)

Ernie Clement led off the 10th on Friday by moving the extra-innings runner, Davis Schneider, over to third on a groundout for George Springer. He didn't quite execute that situation the way he wanted, but a double-clutch at third base proved costly for Miguel Vargas, who took Murakami off the bag with his throw to first. Springer was safe after review, and Schneider scored, giving the Blue Jays the lead.

1. Andrés Giménez: 2-run HR, Top 8, 4/3 (+29.3% WPA)

Andrés Giménez has delivered when the Blue Jays have needed him on multiple occasions already in the young season. This towering drive off the right field foul pole tied things up at three on Friday afternoon. Giménez ambushed Jordan Leasure, one of the better arms in the White Sox bullpen, on the first pitch after Leasure failed to elevate a 95-mph fastball. Chicago's win probability was 79% even after Ernie Clement's leadoff single right before this home run, which reset the odds to 50/50, enough to make it the most clutch play of the week.

View full article