Searching for Andrés Giménez's Break-Even Point

[Matthew Creally]

The roster construction of the past few iterations of the Toronto Blue Jays has introduced fans to the reality that the standard of offensive production for position players varies widely based on how useful they are in the field. Beginning in 2023, the front office and coaching staff placed a strong emphasis on team defense, a priority that's still evident throughout today's roster. Daulton Varsho, and Ernie Clement are examples of guys who have been slam-dunk elite defenders every year, so for them to be considered positive contributors, their hitting doesn't have to be as effective as everyone else in the lineup.

The state of affairs was problematic a couple of years ago because players like Varsho and Matt Chapman had very little offensive support around them, leading to the failing of an elite pitching staff and a playoff run that was (and long felt) over before it started. Nowadays, it's more practical to have someone like Clement assuming an everyday role because of the offensive firepower up and down the lineup. Any delightful revelations from those who have less pressure on them to deliver at the plate, such as Clement breaking the all-time single-postseason hits record and Varsho clubbing 20 homers in 71 games in 2025, are merely added bonuses.

Few players in baseball illustrate this concept better than Andrés Giménez. With virtually no indication that it was coming, the Blue Jays traded for him last offseason, knowing he was a glove-first guy. From 2022-24, only Dansby Swanson was a more valuable defensive infielder than Giménez, according to Statcast. Someone that integral to run prevention at a premium position doesn't need to be an above-average hitter to be considered a good player. Case in point: In 2023, Giménez posted a 96 wRC+ with the Guardians, just a smidge below league-average offensive production. According to Fangraphs, he was still worth 3.8 WAR, enough to make him a top-eight second baseman in the game. Baseball Reference had him at 5.0 WAR. A below-average hitter who was still worth five wins!

All else equal, Giménez probably only needs to maintain a wRC+ of 80 or greater to retain the status of a solid contributor at shortstop. There are usually only three to five position players every year who are that unproductive yet take enough at-bats to qualify for all major awards. Here's the bad news: He couldn't even manage to clear that line in his first season with Toronto. Amidst a handful of injury troubles, Giménez registered a 70 wRC+ in 2025. He was more than fine on defense, finishing with 1.0 fWAR in 101 games, but it was still a career-worst offensive season by almost every metric. 

I don't think Giménez should aim for a wRC+ of 80. That would be selling him a little short. Sure, he's probably the 10th-best hitter on the team as it is, but he also makes a lot of money: $15.6 million this year, and $23.6 million every year from 2027-29 before the Blue Jays get to decide whether they want to exercise a $23 million club option for 2030. His career wRC+ is 98, and he'll likely be here a while. He's not supposed to be a good hitter every year, but can he be just good enough that, inclusive of his defense, he rejoins the conversation of MLB's elite middle infielders?

For those who need a refresher on Giménez's career path, it's been a rather peculiar journey for the focal point of the package Cleveland got from the Mets for Francisco Lindor. His first full season at age 23 was a 141 wRC+, 6.0-fWAR masterclass. Again, his defense has remained every bit as good as it was then, but the ensuing years saw him go from an elite hitter to about average to decidedly below-average to the guy we saw last year. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) trend over that timespan is a whiplash-inducing roller coaster:

Andrés Giménez Hitting, 2022-25

Year	wRC+	BABIP	lg BABIP
2022	141	.353	.290
2023	96	.289	.297
2024	83	.286	.291
2025	70	.239	.291

Giménez got paid after a 2022 season that, especially in hindsight, was a mirage in some ways. Right off the bat, a .353 BABIP for a guy with a low-80s zone contact rate and a barely-above-average line drive rate is a pretty serious red flag. His wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by 32 points that year, while his batting average cleared his xBA by 38. That's enough top-level evidence to suggest regression lies ahead, and it did: His BABIP returned to league norms for the next two seasons, taking his production to about the same level. 

In 2025, though, the baseball gods decided to curse him with a polar reversal of the BABIP luck he accrued three years before. Giménez doesn't swing fast or hit the ball hard or lay off bad pitches, and his contact ability is mediocre. He'll likely never be someone who can finagle his way to consistent overperformance on balls in play based on his skill set, but a .239 BABIP is far enough in the other direction that we can assume misfortune is at play at first glance. Let's look at some of the underlying numbers to verify that:

Andrés Giménez Advanced Hitting, 2022-25

Year	Zone Swing%	Chase%	Zone Contact%	Out-of-Zone Contact%	LD%	PU%	Barrel%	EV90	Bat Speed 90
2022	70.9%	38.4%	81.2%	61.0%	24.4%	8.0%	6.2%	102.8
2023	71.0%	40.0%	81.6%	63.5%	21.9%	9.3%	5.5%	102.3	73.8
2024	74.6%	37.4%	84.3%	62.4%	24.0%	6.5%	2.8%	101.0	73.7
2025	67.2%	34.6%	81.6%	64.6%	26.2%	5.6%	3.0%	100.8	74.2

The most immediately concerning patterns here are a slow decline in top-end exit velocity and a barrel rate that has yet to match 2022, but as a whole, I don't see anything warranting a ~50-point drop in BABIP from 2024 to 2025. Sure, he made a little less contact on hittable pitches, but he slightly dialed back his free-swinging ways, hit more line drives, and hit fewer popups. Although his profile remains that of a below-average hitter, he didn't deserve the fate that befell him last year.

Another quirk about Giménez that my editor, Leo Morgenstern, astutely pointed out in the early stages of preparing this piece: During his first two years in the league, he was basically a platoon-neutral lefty hitter, if not slightly reverse-platoon. Since then, he has suddenly forgotten how to hit lefty pitching:

Year	wRC+ vs LHP	wRC+ vs RHP	xwOBA vs LHP	xwOBA vs RHP
2022	159	136	.320	.335
2023	100	95	.301	.296
2024	64	90	.268	.313
2025	39	80	.274	.318

His quality of contact (in tandem with his K/BB rate) has notably declined against same-handed pitching throughout the sample, which mostly boils down to increasingly poor swing decisions and suboptimal launch angles of hard-hit balls. Once again, though, the BABIP monster is the driving force. Observe Giménez's BABIP vs LHP from 2022-25: .386, .300, .277, .213. Such a violent shift across both ends of the spectrum figures to even out in some way.

One thing that falls under the radar about Giménez's offensive value: He's a machine on the bases. He stole 20 bases during that magical 2022 campaign before stealing 30 each in 2023 and 2024 once the pitch clock came into the picture. I'm not sure we'll see 30 in 2026 because the quad and ankle injuries he suffered brought him down to 65th-percentile sprint speed (as opposed to 94th-percentile in 2022), but I'm sure the Blue Jays would gladly take 20. For all the things their offense did well in 2025, baserunning was not one of them. They were 12th in the AL in baserunning run value per Statcast, and 14th in stolen bases, ahead of only the Tigers. Giménez has what it takes to move them away from the bottom of the pile.

The level of offense the Toronto Blue Jays received from Bo Bichette for most of the past half-decade was nothing short of a luxury at the shortstop position. Andrés Giménez won't hit like that, but he's probably going to be better than 2025 would indicate. Some upward regression to the mean appears to be in order based on the trajectory of his career to this point, and that might be all he needs. Between his baserunning and his world-class defense, a below-average offensive output is just fine. A wRC+ around 80 is likely enough to make him a positive contributor overall, and if he gets into the 90s, he'll approach four-win territory if healthy. That would make him a top-10 shortstop in the game, one with a very similar overall impact to Bichette, albeit with a drastically different style of play. FanGraphs' projection systems seem to agree with this outlook: Giménez's average wRC+ forecast for 2026 between their six distinct models is 90. So, then, let us root for a 10%-below-average performance from Giménez at the plate this year. It'll make his wizardry with the glove that much sweeter.

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