Do the Jays Have Trust in Tommy Nance?

[Sam Charles]

Tommy Nance played a small role in the Jays’ 2025 success, but whether that will guarantee him a spot in 2026 is uncertain. The future of a fringe‑roster big league pitcher is rarely straightforward, and in the case of Nance, the Jays face a particularly intricate decision. The right‑hander finds himself standing on the thinnest edge of the roster bubble, fighting not just for innings, but for his place in the majors.

Nance has an inspiring story. Going from an undrafted, independent league arm to a late‑career MLB contributor, he has been defined by perseverance, flashes of effectiveness and stretches of inconsistency.

His career has been built on the margins, in the shadows, in the places where baseball dreams often go to die. And yet, somehow, he has always found a way to keep going.

As the Jays continue to reshape their roster heading into the 2026 season, Nance’s role within the organization is up in the air. His lack of minor league options, the team’s increasingly crowded bullpen picture and his age all contribute to a complex evaluation process for Toronto's front office.

Baseball is a sport with a short memory and an even shorter patience for fringe contributors. Whatever goodwill Nance built last season does not guarantee him anything in 2026. In fact, it may not even guarantee him a locker in Dunedin by the end of March.

With Nance being out of minor league options, he can’t be demoted to the minors without first passing through waivers. The team has already lost Paxton Schultz to the Nationals after they did some roster shuffling following the signing of Kazuma Okamoto.

The Jays have added to the bullpen this offseason with Tyler Rogers and Chase Lee. That 'pen is already filling up with the return of Yimi Garcia and the core of relievers that John Schneider leaned on during the postseason.

Based on roster constraints, combined with the team’s offseason bullpen acquisitions and internal pitching depth, Nance is in a precarious spot as the team approaches the upcoming season.

Tommy Nance’s professional baseball story is one of resilience. Before joining the Blue Jays, he spent years bouncing between minor‑league affiliates and independent leagues. He is used to fighting for opportunities, but with mixed results. His MLB debut came relatively late, and most of his career has been marked by inconsistency and limited innings.

Tommy Nance is not supposed to be in the Major Leagues. Not by traditional standards, at least. Not by scouting logic. Not by the impersonal, analytical machinery that governs modern baseball.

He has been optioned, DFA’d, traded for cash, and written off more times than he can probably count.

He has rarely surpassed 45 innings in any of his Major League seasons. In 2023, he was sidelined after Tommy John surgery, but he rebounded and has shown glimpses of effectiveness, improved command and a refined pitching arsenal.

Nance was acquired from the Padres in 2024 for cash. That season, he was relatively successful. His 4.09 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings earned him a spot on the 40‑man roster through the winter.

While those numbers aren’t dominant, they are good enough for a middle reliever. His ground‑ball rate has stood out during his time in the organization. In 2025, MLB Trade Rumors reported that Nance produced a 52.4% ground‑ball rate. That is exactly what you want from a reliever, especially one who doesn’t have overpowering stuff.

Nance has three main weapons: a sinking fastball with late arm-side run, a sweeping slider that generates weak contact and his changeup that is intended to disrupt timing and keep batters honest. He also has a cutter.

His ability to induce groundballs, in theory, makes him a potential fit for high‑leverage situations, but that hasn’t come to fruition with the Jays.

Meanwhile, his strikeout rate (20.4%) and walk rate (9.7%) are slightly below league average. That might be the deciding factor for the coaching staff when they are eyeing up match-ups or for the front office when they are deciding on the roster.

The most significant factor shaping Nance’s future is the Blue Jays’ bullpen depth. Heading to Spring Training, the Jays have assembled a relief corps that leaves little room for fringe arms.

Returning higher leverage right-handed relievers include Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher, Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García. If you add José Berríos into that mix (not to mention the lefties), things are awfully crowded in the bullpen.

Younger pitchers with minor‑league options offer more flexibility, and the Jays, like other teams, tend to prioritize roster flexibility.

With seven or eight bullpen spots typically available, and most already spoken for, Nance faces an uphill battle.

He turns 35 in March. That will make him one of the oldest pitchers in camp. Age isn’t a disqualifier, but it does limit upside. Teams like the Jays tend to bet on youth unless the veteran is clearly superior.

With those factors in place, it seems likely that the Jays will elect not to include Nance on the Opening Day roster, thereby guaranteeing he’ll be placed on outright waivers. If another team claims him, then the Jays would not be entitled to any compensation.

A rebuilding club could take a chance on him. A team with bullpen injuries could scoop him up. A club that values ground‑ball arms like the Cardinals, Giants, or Pirates might see him as a fit. He is cheap and healthy, so those are two factors that are in his favour, whether with the Jays or another team.

If no team claims him. He would report to Triple-A Buffalo, as he doesn’t have enough service time to decline an outright assignment. His contract would convert to a Triple‑A salary unless he’s later re‑selected to the MLB roster.

Nance will have a lot riding on spring training, if he gets there, presuming no trade or release. If he does, he’ll need to pitch lights-out to force the team’s hand.

A player like Nance is competent but not irreplaceable. With some younger, higher‑upside arms on the near horizon and a bunch of veterans with guaranteed contracts, the math would indicate that the Nance’s inspiring MLB journey will most likely continue elsewhere.

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