Blue Jays 2026 ZiPS Projections: Bullish on Infielders & Bullpen, Undecided on Rotation

[Matthew Creally]

It's forecasting season! An annual staple at the dawn of the new year is the gradual release of player projections for the upcoming campaign on websites such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. FanGraphs alone hosts an entire army of projection models, each with its own estimates and methodology. Steamer uses basic underlying numbers and regresses players toward league average. The Bat is based on a similar approach, while its newer variant, The Bat X, incorporates Statcast data to a heightened degree. ATC aggregates all existing projection systems based on what specific stats they're good at forecasting – averaging the results of multiple models is thought by many to be the most reliable method of projecting players. More recently, OOPSY was introduced, the first of its kind to use pitch modelling and bat tracking data in its forecasts. 

Today, though, we'll be looking at the Szymborski Projection System, or ZiPS, created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It has been around for longer than all the other ones mentioned above, and it's rather unique in that it identifies a series of close historical comparables for each player and prognosticates performance based on how the careers of their comps unfolded. Szymborski has been rolling out ZiPS projections by team over at FanGraphs since November, and on Tuesday morning, he released the system's first batch of estimates for the Toronto Blue Jays. How does ZiPS feel about the Jays going into 2026?

Position Players: Few Weaknesses

Suffice to say, the forecast is strong for Toronto's infield. Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement form a potent defensive duo up the middle, and Kazuma Okamoto has enough offensive upside to be an above-average third baseman if his fielding doesn't fall off a cliff; his closest comp according to ZiPS is longtime Mariner Kyle Seager.

It's easy to forget, given how well his October went, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could easily have a better regular season than he did in 2025, and advanced offensive stats have long stood by him. Of note: Two of Guerrero's top three closest comps are Albert Pujols and Rafael Palmeiro. That'll work, as will the 4.9 combined fWAR that Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman are predicted to accrue. ZiPS is clearly sold on the offensive strides Kirk made last year, and with Addison Barger and Davis Schneider available to fill in gaps in the infield from time to time, there isn't a single hole in this section of the roster.

ZiPS is also optimistic about what Daulton Varsho could do in a full season after what he flashed a season ago, banking on the rare and impressive power + defense combo he boasts at a premium position. The corner outfield and DH positions are a bit of a mess in terms of playing time estimates, with more capable players than spots on the roster, but regardless of who gets the lion's share of the reps, it's unlikely that one specific bat will hold the Jays back anywhere. This is a high-floor offense that still features a diverse set of skills from top to bottom after scoring the second-most runs in the AL in 2025. If they can add another elite bat, their ceiling will be pushed as well.

A Deep Bullpen

Many of you may be surprised at how highly ZiPS thinks of this bullpen. At the time of writing, these projections have been released for 25 teams (the Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, and Dodgers are still to come). Toronto's combined reliever fWAR projection of 3.9 is the fourth-highest of the teams that Szymborski has sized up so far, behind only the Brewers, Phillies and Red Sox, and tied with the Guardians.

While the Jays lack an A-list closer, ZiPS has the sixth-to-eighth-inning collection as one of the best in the league. It's delightfully high on Tommy Nance and gave a resounding thumbs-up to the Tyler Rogers signing.

He may not be Jhoan Duran or Mason Miller, but readers would surely be delighted to see the 3.38 ERA, 74 strikeouts, 23 walks, and *eight* home runs allowed that Jeff Hoffman is pegged for across 61.1 projected innings pitched. Further down the list, ZiPS is also sold on Braydon Fisher's breakout 2025, estimating a 27.1% K rate for him this year – third-highest on the staff behind Hoffman and Dylan Cease.

In fact, the model is content enough with this group to the point that Szymborski opined the team could even trade a reliever if another contender happens to need one early in the season. I wouldn't bet on that, as injuries and underperformance are always possible, but it speaks to the progress we've seen since the 2024 bullpen clocked in as one of the worst in baseball.

The overarching theme is availability: There are a ton of bulldogs back there, with Eric Lauer capable of going multiple innings (as well as José Berríos if he decides he's okay with relief work), Louis Varland and Rogers as durable as they come, and enough strikeout guys to balance it out in Hoffman, Yimi García, Brendon Little, Nance, Fisher, and Mason Fluharty.

Wide Range of Outcomes in Rotation

This is where ZiPS isn't as confident. It likes the additions that have been made so far, with Cease good enough to be the de facto ace of the staff and Cody Ponce receiving a relatively optimistic projection as far as fifth starters go. However, between Shane Bieber's health, Trey Yesavage's lack of experience, and Ponce coming off unremarkable seasons in Japan before suddenly exploding onto the scene in Korea (he hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2021), there is a moderate amount of risk. Interestingly, Szymborski argues that because of what could go wrong here (Bieber battles injury all year, Yesavage regresses as the league adjusts to him, Ponce doesn't translate as smoothly as hoped), the Blue Jays would improve their 2026 outlook more by signing one of the remaining starting pitchers on the free agent market instead of Kyle Tucker. 

Because Cease and Ponce were both acquired before the Winter Meetings, this train of thought likely hasn't occurred to many fans, but it's intriguing to consider. Of course, chasing a Framber Valdez or a Ranger Suárez would come with its own set of risks and affect the team far beyond 2026. Questions exist about Valdez's makeup, and Suárez's stuff is declining amidst a questionable bill of health. At this point, I'm not at all saying they should pursue either one, but ZiPS's diagnosis of the rotation as is helps to illustrate that, while its upside is undeniable, things could unfold in many different ways, and its floor is lower than that of the dynamic position player group. On the other hand, if things go well, a potential bounce-back from Berríos would merely be an added bonus, no matter what capacity he pitches in.

The Verdict

So, where does this leave us? With all that happened in 2025, there's only one thing left for this team to accomplish. ZiPS likes the position they're in.

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All told, the Blue Jays look to be neck-and-neck with the Red Sox, and slightly better than the Yankees, in the AL East. As for the Orioles, you’ll have to wait for that ZiPS post later this week.

Not mentioned above are the Rays, which ZiPS currently sees as likely to hover around .500 again. If we add up Toronto's projected fWAR totals by position, the sum is 45.6. Add that to the common shorthand that a 0-WAR team would win 48 games, and the Blue Jays' projected ZiPS win total rounds up to 94 – exactly the same as last year. The AL East will be strong, but one more marquee addition ought to push the Blue Jays over the edge as the clear favourites.

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[Leo Morgenstern]

It's so nice to see that ZiPS is still high on Kirk. Projections liked his bat last year too, despite two consecutive years of sub-par offense from 2023-24. And they were 100% right.