Eric Lauer and the Blue Jays Are Headed for Arbitration

[Sam Charles]

Everything has been coming up roses for the Blue Jays this offseason, but there is one small blemish that will work its way through the arbitration process in the next month or so. The Jays came to agreements with Daulton Varsho ($10.75 million), Ernie Clement ($4.6 million) and Tyler Heineman ($1.2375 million) prior to the filing deadline, but Eric Lauer’s arbitration case remains unresolved.

Like most teams, the Jays have often been cautious about hearings and aim to settle before the filing deadline. With Lauer, that approach did not work out, and the two sides will be joining up to 17 other players and their respective teams in front of an arbitration panel in February. While some of those cases could still be resolved without a hearing, that’s not likely to be the case for Toronto and Lauer.

The 18 unresolved cases across MLB are up one from last season’s 17, but not the most ever. In 2023, 33 cases saw sides exchange numbers, though only 19 went to a hearing. Clubs won more than twice as many of those cases as players.

Lauer’s camp filed at $5.75 million while the Blue Jays filed at $4.4 million for the 2026 season. This spread, though not enormous in absolute terms, is meaningful within the structure of arbitration proceedings. That said, this isn’t Tarik Skubal. Skubal is asking for a record $32 million in arbitration, while the Tigers have countered with $19 million.

The gap between the proposals from Lauer and the Jays seems to be an issue of whether Lauer, a hybrid pitcher, is more of a starter or a long reliever. Starters and closers make the money, while journeyman middle-relievers don’t tend to cash in.

For Lauer, this process is unwinding prior to his final season of club control before free agency. The decision will shape not only his 2026 compensation but will likely impact his role and future market value. For Toronto, winning this arbitration case will help keep the payroll total down within a competitive window that has recently included aggressive additions and contract extensions elsewhere on the roster.

After signing a minor league deal with the Jays last season, Lauer started at Triple-A Buffalo and was then called up in late April, becoming a flexible rotation-bullpen swingman. He logged 104.2 innings across 28 appearances (15 starts), posting a 3.18 ERA, 102 strikeouts, and a 1.11 WHIP. He was a glue in the rotation and the bullpen that kept the team above water through injuries and low points during the season.

His contributions extended into October, when Lauer made five postseason appearances for Toronto. He totalled 8.2 innings with a 3.12 ERA, including a high-leverage, extra-innings relief stint during the World Series that amplified his reputation in that long relief role.

Playoff work is not directly calculated as part of arbitration-estimate formulas, which traditionally favor regular season counting stats, role classifications, and service-time cohorts. Still, it can shape perceived value and, therefore, organizational strategy.

Lauer’s MLB arc began with the Padres, followed by a multi-year tenure with the Brewers. In 2023, he earned $5.075 million via arbitration. He then decided to rebuild his value in 2024 with a stint in Korea’s KBO with the Kia Tigers.

Through the end of the 2025 season, Lauer carries a career MLB record of 45–39 with a 4.13 ERA across 148 appearances (127 starts).

Players who return to MLB from playing overseas in Korea or Japan generally have their previous MLB service time reinstated, which determines their arbitration and free agent eligibility. That’s the case for Lauer.

Last season, Lauer signed with the Jays for a $2.2 million base salary if he made the big league club. He ended up earning a prorated portion of that figure, $1,897,856. That was quite a drop from his last MLB salary with the Brewers.

Historically, players who succeed overseas see a bump in salary after their international foray. A distant example includes Cecil Fielder, who earned $125,000 with the Jays in 1988, played one year in Japan, then returned to the majors with the Tigers for $1.5 million.

More recently, former first-round pick Erick Fedde went to the KBO in 2023 after he initially struggled to a 5.86 ERA in the majors over several seasons with the Nationals. He returned to MLB in 2024 on a two-year, $15 million contract with the White Sox.

After putting up a 5.86 ERA in MLB from 2020-21, Cody Ponce had a strong season in the KBO in 2025. That experience secured him a three-year, $30 million deal with the Jays. In his last season with the Pirates, Ponce’s salary was $240,317.

The structure of the salary arbitration process mandates that, after the tender and exchange deadlines, the player and club submit single-year salary proposals to a three-person panel. Hearings typically occur in early February. The panel must pick either the club’s or the player’s proposal after considering evidence such as role, playing time, statistics, service time, and comparable players’ salaries.

Negotiations can continue until the moment of hearing, although “file-and-trial” philosophies limit such flexibility for some clubs, including the Jays. 

In 2024, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Jays went to a hearing. The panel sided with Guerrero and awarded him $19.9 million. The team had offered $18.05 million.

It was the first hearing for the Jays since 2019, when they appeared before a panel with Ryan Tepera. The team won that case with their offer of $1.525 million after he asked for $1.8 million.

In Lauer’s case, the team will most likely argue that his 28 appearances and 15 starts define him as a hybrid pitcher whose earnings should align with those of bulk relievers rather than stable mid-rotation starters.

Lauer is most likely countering by highlighting his mid-season run as a starter, where he had a sub-3.20 ERA with strong strikeout-to-walk efficiency. When called upon, Lauer was ready to contribute.

Beyond next season, Toronto’s left-handed depth looms large: Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty, as well as prospects like Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, Johnny King and Brandon Barriera are under control for years. That surplus could explain the Jays’ hardline stance of spending discipline after a costly offseason.

Lauer’s role in 2026 will probably be less of a hybrid and focused more on long relief. That said, the question marks in the starting rotation could impact Lauer’s usage, such as Shane Bieber’s health and how José Berríos responds after a tough end to his 2025 and his first IL stint.

Arbitration hearings are inherently adversarial. Teams present arguments downplaying certain aspects of a player's performance or inflating role-based constraints.

For the Blue Jays, whose 2026 arbitration slate is otherwise settled and whose competitive window is open, Lauer’s ultimate number will fine-tune budget allocations but not redefine roster plans. For Lauer, the hearing (and the season ahead) will help shape his free agency trajectory and clarify the market’s view of his role.

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