A 2026 Blue Jays Projection: Is the Angst WARranted?

[Jim Scott]

With the signings of Dylan Cease, Tyler Rogers, and Cody Ponce (and with Shane Bieber exercising his player option), the Blue Jays have taken major steps to solidify their pitching staff in preparation for another World Series run in 2026.  Attention has now shifted to the other side of the plate, and to the Jays’ ongoing discussions with free agent “big bats” such as Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette.

There is no question that a Kyle or Bo would enhance the Jays’ offence. But there is considerable discussion about how critical such an upgrade really is. Suppose the Jays did not make any further offseason upgrades to their hitting – no Kyle or Bo, and no Ketel Marte or Steven Kwan either.

The 2026 Steamer projections for the current Jays are now available on FanGraphs. They project the Jays’ position players to earn only 24 fWAR in 2026, after earning 33 fWAR in 2025. Disappointing! But many of their assumptions, particularly about the Jays’ defense, seem pessimistic. What would the Jays’ fWAR look like with different assumptions?

The table below includes actual statistics from 2025, Steamer's 2026 projections, and modified 2026 projections.

Note the colours in the final projections section: Yellow assumes 2026 will be the same as 2025, green assumes the same as Steamer, and blue assumes extrapolation of 2025 over a higher number of PA.

Some key thoughts about the modified projections:

The revised projection assumes a regular outfield of Anthony Santander – Daulton Varsho – Nathan Lukes and an infield of Addison Barger – Andrés Giménez – Ernie Clement – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. George Springer is assumed to be the primary DH, and Alejandro Kirk the primary catcher.  The bench is Tyler Heineman – Davis Schneider – Myles Straw – other.

This revised projection agrees with Steamer that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should do better in 2026 and assumes the same 153 wRC+ and 4.8 fWAR. This might be conservative; Vladdy earned 5.3 fWAR in 2024 and 6.3 in 2021, and he is still in his prime.

Steamer assumes that George Springer will drop off a cliff, with his fWAR declining 50% from the 5.2 he earned in 2025 to only 2.6 in 2026. The modified projection agrees that his 2025 production might not be sustainable, but assumes that staying at DH continues to energize him and that his decline will only be to 4.0 fWAR.

Alejandro Kirk is widely held to be one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. But while Steamer projects his wRC+ to increase from 116 to 122, it has his Def (defensive runs above average) declining from the 24.9 (!) he earned in 2025 to 6.4 in 2026. The revised projection assumes he maintains the same defensive stats as 2025 and that his wRC+ does not increase.

Anthony Santander is difficult to project. He had a terrible 2025 due to injury, but averaged 2.7 fWAR from 2022-24. Steamer projects him for 1.0 fWAR in 2026, but the revised projection assumes he returns to his average levels with an fWAR of 2.5.

Like Kirk, Andrés Giménez has been an elite defender for most of his career. From 2022-24, his 58 DRS led all of baseball. He had a poor 2025 due to injury, but his defense was still excellent when he took the field. Yet, Steamer projects him to struggle defensively in 2026 (although it does project his hitting to improve to a 95 wRC+). The last time Giménez had a 95+ wRC+ was in 2023, when he put up a 3.8 fWAR. And that was while he was playing second base, where the positional adjustment of +2.5 is substantially less than the +7.5 he will likely earn at shortstop in 2026. The revised projection assumes he returns to his 2023 form, without any positional bonus for moving to shortstop.

Daulton Varsho is another Blue Jay difficult to project. He modified his swing in 2025, greatly increasing his power, but was limited to 271 plate appearances due to injury. Steamer projects his wRC+ to decline from 123 in 2025 to 100 and projects his Def to be negative (-1.2) – this despite Varsho being a perennial Platinum Glove candidate. The revised projection assumes that Varsho plays a full season at 2025 levels (this could be conservative, as his defensive WAR in 2025 was well below his historical standards).

Steamer’s projections of Myles Straw and Ernie Clement are similar to the system's projections for Varsho in that they have assumed a dramatic decline in those players’ plus-level defense. The revised projection assumes that they will continue to produce at 2025 levels on both offense and defense.

The revised fWAR projections for Addison Barger and Davis Schneider are essentially the same as Steamer's.

So, What Does This Mean?

In aggregate, the revised projection assumes that the Jays will earn 38 fWAR from position players currently on the roster, even without any additions. This would be an increase of roughly 5 fWAR from 2025.

Of course, it is hard to make predictions – especially about the future. Key Jays players could be attacked by sentient suitcases, or ambushed by sprinkler heads, or they could get frostbite in August or fall victim to an imaginary spider attack.

So, the revised projection, in assuming no injuries or dramatic declines in production, is in one sense optimistic. But the projection is conservative in some respects too, assuming a maximum of 550 plate appearances from Springer, Varsho and Barger, no breakout from Barger or Lukes, only a 98 wRC+ from Clement, and that Vladdy does not return to his 2021 form.

The Bottom Line

Nobody questions that more elite hitting is better than less elite hitting. But there is a difference between upgrading at a position of extreme weakness and upgrading at one of relative strength. Could this be why the Jays have not pulled the trigger on a mega-deal (free agent or trade) for hitting yet? Their current strength gives them the luxury of being opportunistic, and potentially even waiting until the midsummer trade deadline to shop at the lumber yard.

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[Terry Mesmer]

A reasonable conclusion, Jim.

[Jim Scott]

6 hours ago, Terry Mesmer said:

A reasonable conclusion, Jim.

But is it at the high end of reasonableness? 😁  If you had to pick a fWAR for non-pitchers, would you see it as higher or lower than 2025?

[Spanky__99]

6 minutes ago, Jim Scott said:

But is it at the high end of reasonableness? 😁  If you had to pick a fWAR for non-pitchers, would you see it as higher or lower than 2025?

Similar, the pitching far higher, imo.

[Jason MacDonald]

Great analysis Jim.  I am on the optimistic side was well.  That being said, I still think they should sign Bo / Tucker.  I worry about Clements offence and think he is best as a super utility type ( I know Tucker does not mean Clement is not an everyday player, but he does lengthen the lineup).  

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 hours ago, Jason MacDonald said:

Great analysis Jim.  I am on the optimistic side was well.  That being said, I still think they should sign Bo / Tucker.  I worry about Clements offence and think he is best as a super utility type ( I know Tucker does not mean Clement is not an everyday player, but he does lengthen the lineup).  

 

Welcome to Jays Centre!

[Bob Ritchie]

On 1/1/2026 at 2:49 PM, Jason MacDonald said:

Great analysis Jim.  I am on the optimistic side was well.  That being said, I still think they should sign Bo / Tucker.  I worry about Clements offence and think he is best as a super utility type ( I know Tucker does not mean Clement is not an everyday player, but he does lengthen the lineup).  

 

Jason MacDonald of JFtC Fame?😁