What Is a Reasonable Contract Extension for Daulton Varsho?

[Bob Ritchie]

Starting in 2022, Daulton Varsho began to establish himself as an elite defensive outfielder. Of his 3,836 innings in the outfield, Varsho has played center (2,063), left (1,222) and right (551). Among the 51 center fielders with a minimum of 1,000 innings under their center field belts in that time, his 18 FRV/1200 slots in as the second highest. Concerning the corner outfield positions, Varsho has MLB’s highest FRV/1200 at 14. Did I mention that Varsho is elite defensively?

Varsho has also been above average on the basepaths (9.0 XBR) during his career. Regarding hitting, he has been average (career 99 wRC+), although in limited plate appearances (271) in 2025, he generated a 123 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .326 xwOBA and .310 ISO. That ISO mark ranked seventh among the 309 batters with at least 250 plate appearances. Has Varsho turned the corner into becoming an above-average hitter? Time will tell.

Concerning fWAR, Varsho has generated a 7.3 score during his three-season tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays. Suppose Varsho had not split time in center field with Kevin Kiermaier in 2023 and 2024. The corner outfield-to-center field positional adjustment boost would have raised his 2023 fWAR from 1.9 to 2.5 and his 2024 fWAR from 3.1 to 3.4. Regarding 2025, Varsho had two lengthy stints on the Injured list: March 27 to April 29 (shoulder) and June 1 to August 1 (hamstring). If one assumes the same level of fielding and hitting and doubles his innings from 550 to 1,100 and plate appearances from 271 to 542, Varsho’s 2025 fWAR soars to 4.5. When he played, Varsho was an All-Star-calibre player last season.

An extension for an elite defensive center fielder entering his age-29 season should be simple. Well, no. Time for a journey through Table Land!

Generally speaking, center field is the domain of younger players. Please refer to Tables 1 and 2. During the 2005-2025 period, excluding the pandemic-shortened 60-game 2020 season, there were 26 instances (1.3 per season) in which center fielders aged 31-35 started 120 or more games. There were 134 instances (6.7 per season) in which center fielders aged 26-30 started at least 120 games in a season. In percentage terms, among players who started 120 or more games in a season, 58% were older than 25 but younger than 31. By comparison, only 11% of the times that center fielders started at least 120 games in a campaign were those players older than 30 but younger than 36.

For the 30-35 age group, Table 3 provides more detail. For the 2021 to 2025 period, no outfielder older than 30 started at least 120 games in center field; there were seven instances when a player older than 30 started more than 99 games in center field. During the most recent 10-year period with a 162-game regular season schedule (2015-2025), a player older than 30 started 120 or more games in center field eight times.

Why the concern over players over the age of 30 starting at least 120 games in a season? Because fWAR is a key input used by teams to determine contract values. Two of the factors that affect fWAR are playing time (innings and plate appearances) and a player’s position. As players age, injuries tend to occur more frequently and take longer to heal, thereby reducing playing time. Moreover, as players age, Father Time becomes evident, resulting in diminished athleticism and performance. Hence, teams often move a center fielder to a corner outfield position in their 30s because their defensive skills are better suited to left or right field (see George Springer). Given the fWAR positional adjustment from center field (+2.5 runs) to left or right field (-7.5 runs), if the Blue Jays were to move Varsho to a corner outfield position during the term of the extension, his fWAR would decrease by approximately one win per season for the balance of the contract (all other things being equal).   

Therefore, a contract extension for Varsho, as he approaches his 30s, must account for the risk of reduced playing time and a position change. However, are there examples of well-above-average defenders in center field that continued to excel into their 30s? Yes, a limited number. I screened for center fielders who met the following criteria:

• Played in the majors during the 2005-2025 period.
• At the age of 30, they were well-above-average defensively according to the DRS metric and continued to excel into their early 30s.
• Reached the age of 35 during the 2005-2025 seasons.
• Because he is well known to Blue Jays fans, I included Kiermaier, who retired after his age-34 season (2024).

I present Table 4.

Carlos Beltrán’s center field defence was no longer well-above average after his age-31 season. However, because he posted a 131 wRC+ and 23.6 fWAR during his age-30 to 35 seasons, I am sure that Beltrán’s employers were unfazed that he no longer patrolled center field on a full-time basis. Still, his center field defence declined as he entered his 30s.

Kiermaier remained superb defensively post-pandemic (17 DRS/1200), but, due to limited playing time (an average of 770 innings per season) because of injuries and below-average hitting (89 wRC+), Kiermaier generated a meager 6.7 fWAR over four seasons.

After playing five games in 2020, Lorenzo Cain decided not to play during the balance of the pandemic-shortened season. In 2021, his age-35 campaign, he was on the injured list from June 1 to July 27 due to a hamstring injury. In total, he played 78 games in 2021. Yet, during his age-30 to 35 seasons, excluding 2020, Cain continued to excel defensively (15 DRS/1200) in 4,839 innings, and he posted a 105 wRC+ and 15.9 fWAR. He is an example of a player who was superb defensively at age 30 and continued to excel at age 33.

We now turn to the Varsho contract extension matter. As Tables 1, 2 and 3 showed, it is unusual for a center fielder older than 29 to start 120 or more games in a season. Furthermore, it is rare for a center fielder to continue to log almost 1,000 innings a season and excel defensively after the age of 30. Cain is the sole example during the 2005-2025 period. Therefore, from Toronto’s perspective, the shorter the Varsho extension, the better. Behold Table 5!

The key assumptions in Table 5 are as follows:

• The 2026 $/fWAR rate is $9 million, which is the figure used by Baseball Trade Values.
• An arbitrary 3% annual fWAR inflator.
• Cot’s Baseball Contracts’ $11.8 million arbitration award for the 2026 season.
• The 2026 3.5 fWAR projection is the average of Varsho’s boosted 2023, 2024, and 2025 fWAR numbers noted earlier (2.5, 3.4 and 4.5, respectively). The 3.5 figure is on the optimistic side, but I believe Varsho can nearly replicate his 2025 123 wRC+ and his defensive prowess in the future, at least in the short term.
• Varsho’s arm strength returns to its pre-2025 level. After his shoulder surgery in 2024, Varsho’s arm strength averaged 73.7 mph, down from the 83.9 and 83.7 mph in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Although Varsho’s arm strength was typically in the 40th percentile before last season, it was in the fifth percentile in 2025.

My estimate of a fair contract is a four-year, $100 million deal that would run from 2026-29. The AAV is on the high side, but the contract does not extend beyond Varsho's age-32 season, when the risks of reduced playing time and a position switch are elevated.

The Last Word

The reader should note that shopping in the free agent market is different from buying broccoli at the grocery store. At the grocery store, a non-negotiable price is posted, and you can typically take the broccoli from the bin whenever you want it. The free agent market does not have a fixed price, nor can a team acquire a free agent on demand. I know the price of broccoli, but I do not know the market price of a Varsho extension; however, I can estimate it.

With that proviso in mind, would Varsho accept a four-year, $100 million extension? I do not know, but it is a fair deal. The optimistic fWAR projection and higher AAV would benefit the player, and the short contract length addresses the team’s presumptive concerns regarding playing time and a potential switch from center field to a corner outfield position.

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[Jim Scott]

What are your thoughts about Varsho's batting breakthrough in 2025?  Epiphany or blip?  Certainly a .310 ISO *seems* unsustainable, but he has retooled his swing so it does not appear to be completely random ...

[Bob Ritchie]

8 minutes ago, Jim Scott said:

What are your thoughts about Varsho's batting breakthrough in 2025?  Epiphany or blip?  Certainly a .310 ISO *seems* unsustainable, but he has retooled his swing so it does not appear to be completely random ...

I am optimistic that he can approach a 115 to 120ish wRC+ in 2026. His 2025 XWOBACAON was 0.433 (MLB Average is 0.368). He did change his batting stance in 2025 (6 degrees open to 5 degrees closed), so there were notable changes.

Your thoughts on his "epiphany"? Would you sign Varsho to an extension, and if so, what dollar amount and term would you offer?

[Terry Mesmer]

Thanks for this, Bob. For years I have pointed out that position players tend to decline at 30 and often fall off a cliff after age 32, especially defensively, and most especially outfielders. As you demonstrate, the exceptions are few, But  GMs seem to forget steroid testing started over 20 years ago! And fans say they just want sluggers and don't care about the back end of deals -- until they have to live through one (am I right, Tigers fans?).

I love Varsho but am leery of signing a CF past the age of 30 (e.g. Springer was supposed to be the solution there but he rarely played centre -- as I predicted). However, I think Varsho can have a great 2026 -- pairing elite defence and 25+ HR could get him MVP votes -- if he stays healthy. He could be great for two maybe three years beyond that but I think $100M is way too much for a guy with a low OBP, questionable arm, contact issues, maybe hamstring issues, plus he is heading into his 30s soon.

Varsho is projected to get $9.7M in 2026; your extension proposal would give him four years at a $25M AAV starting this season. I would let arbitration take its course in 2026 and extended Varsho for 2027-2029 at 3Y/$66M (could throw in a $15M option with $4M buyout). That would be 4Y/$75.7M for 2026-2029. If the 2030 option is included, the deal is $81.7M guaranteed over four years -- getting over the $20M/Y mark would probably get the deal done.

Thanks again Bob!

[Jim Scott]

4 hours ago, Terry Mesmer said:

Thanks for this, Bob. For years I have pointed out that position players tend to decline at 30 and often fall off a cliff after age 32, especially defensively, and most especially outfielders. As you demonstrate, the exceptions are few, But  GMs seem to forget steroid testing started over 20 years ago! And fans say they just want sluggers and don't care about the back end of deals -- until they have to live through one (am I right, Tigers fans?).

I love Varsho but am leery of signing a CF past the age of 30 (e.g. Springer was supposed to be the solution there but he rarely played centre -- as I predicted). However, I think Varsho can have a great 2026 -- pairing elite defence and 25+ HR could get him MVP votes -- if he stays healthy. He could be great for two maybe three years beyond that but I think $100M is way too much for a guy with a low OBP, questionable arm, contact issues, maybe hamstring issues, plus he is heading into his 30s soon.

Varsho is projected to get $9.7M in 2026; your extension proposal would give him four years at a $25M AAV starting this season. I would let arbitration take its course in 2026 and extended Varsho for 2027-2029 at 3Y/$66M (could throw in a $15M option with $4M buyout). That would be 4Y/$75.7M for 2026-2029. If the 2030 option is included, the deal is $81.7M guaranteed over four years -- getting over the $20M/Y mark would probably get the deal done.

Thanks again Bob!

I agree with Terry that I would prefer to take the last year of arb discount and see how DV does.  If he regresses back to a pure leather-over-lumber CF, $25m AAV is too high.  If he continues to excel at the plate, waiting could be a mistake - but sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make.

That said, Bob is right too - a fair contract right now, given the high upside created by DV's 2025 breakout, probably *is* in the $25m AAV range.  But do the Jays want to pay that risk premium based on a single half-year plus hitting?

[Spanky__99]

Avoid Arb and offer 5/100M he'll likely take that, me thinks, good article Bob!