Is Nolan Arenado the Infield Solution the Blue Jays Need?

[Sam Charles]

Since 2019, the Blue Jays have had the luxury of having Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette anchor their infield. The team’s glaring issue in the infield has been a lack of stability at third base since Matt Chapman left, along with a rotating door at second.

Enter Nolan Arenado, a player whose name has been synonymous with elite defense and consistent offensive production for over a decade. With the St. Louis Cardinals signaling a rebuild and Arenado reportedly open to expanding his list of teams to whom he'd accept a trade, the Jays have a unique opportunity to acquire a future Hall of Famer. Arenado fits the Jays’ roster and their financial and performance needs, and the trade price might be within the team’s means.

Arenado has two guaranteed years remaining on his current deal. The details of his contract are complicated, but in simplest terms, he will make a $27 million salary in 2026 (although $5 million of that will be paid by the Rockies and $6 million is deferred) and a $15 million salary in 2027. Arendo holds a full no-trade clause, but recent reports suggest he would be willing to waive it in the right situation. The Cardinals, after trading Sonny Gray to the Red Sox and signaling a payroll reset, appear motivated to move Arenado before the start of the season.

Arenado’s offensive numbers dipped last season. He slashed .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs and 52 RBIs, marking his weakest full season since his rookie year. However, his defensive value remains strong. He is projected to be at least a top-25 third baseman next season. For a Jays team that ranked near the bottom in third base production last season, Arenado could represent a meaningful upgrade.

Advanced metrics underscore Arenado’s value. In 2025, he posted +6 Outs Above Average (OAA) and 12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), ranking among the top third basemen in MLB. These numbers highlight his ability to convert difficult plays into outs, a skill that directly reduces opponent scoring opportunities. For a team like the Jays that relies heavily on pitching efficiency, Arenado’s glove could be the difference in tight games against division rivals.

If the season were to start tomorrow, the Jays would likely continue with Ernie Clement at third, occasionally spelled by Addison Barger. They are a serviceable duo, but are not elite. Arenado is arguably one of the best defenders in MLB history. He has won 10 Gold Gloves and six Platinum Gloves during his career.

Overall, the Jays’ third base defense was solid last season but not exceptional. Clement’s reliability helped stabilize the infield, but Barger’s occasional difficulties posed some concern. That inconsistency was exacerbated by injuries during the season, which forced John Schneider to shuffle his lineup. The Jays finished the year with strong team defensive metrics (+40 Fielding Run Value overall), but there is no question that an upgrade at third base could be key to sustaining success in 2026.

On many occasions throughout 2025, the Jays’ defence kept the team in games when the bats weren’t humming, and if they want to repeat last year’s success, that defence will need to be at least as good.

Arenado would also provide veteran leadership. He was part of playoff teams in Colorado and St. Louis, so he could bring that experience and leadership to the Toronto clubhouse. He is known for his work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader and could easily slide into the role that players like Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Isiah Kiner-Falefa provided last season.

The price for Arenado might not be as high as it would have been during his prime. Arenado saw his OPS+ drop last season, but he remains capable of hitting more than 20 home runs and providing over 70 RBIs if healthy. His hard-hit rate has declined, but a move to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre could help. Even at his current level, Arenado should offer more offensive production than the combo of Clement and Barger.

Another bonus for the Jays would be that Arenado has the skills to play first base as well, providing some defensive insurance if Guerrero needs a break or gets injured. Arenado could also stabilize the left side of the infield if Bichette doesn’t re-sign and provides options for the Jays should they wish to further test drive Andrés Giménez or Clement at short.

Arenado’s remaining salary would be manageable for the Jays to take on. St. Louis might even agree to cover part of the cost. The Jays have shown a willingness to absorb contracts, such as in last offseason’s Giménez trade, and could justify this move as a short-term investment to maximize their competitive window.

The biggest hurdle is Arenado’s no-trade clause. Historically, he has preferred destinations like Los Angeles or Boston, but recent comments suggest he may expand his list. Toronto’s playoff aspirations and current roster could make the Jays an attractive option, but that doesn’t mean the front office won’t need to sell Arenado on the fit and possibly sweeten the deal with financial incentives.

The trade cost for Arenado wouldn't be interesting. Ultimately, a deal like this would balance the Cardinals’ desire to clear payroll with Toronto’s desire for immediate impact.

That said, acquiring Arenado wouldn't come without risk. He turns 35 in April, and his offensive contributions may now be on the decline. But remember, analysts said the same about George Springer heading into last season.

If Arenado can perform as he has in the past, he would provide a potent bat, veteran leadership and an elite glove to the Jays to support another potential deep run in 2026. While his contract, age, and no-trade clause pose challenges, the Cardinals’ rebuild and Arenado’s openness to a change create a window for the Jays.

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[Terry Mesmer]

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