Article: Blue Jays-Mariners ALCS Game Seven: One Swing Of The Bat To Flip A Series

[Mike LeSage]

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was spotted arriving at the Rogers Centre wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs Austin Matthews jersey pre-game. It caused a bit of a stir amongst Toronto fans - given Matthews’ history in recent games seven, it was certainly a choice. The most superstitious among us took it as a bad omen, some took it as a chance to end whatever curse had befallen the local hockey team. Vladdy though? I think he was just having fun. 

George Springer: One hit in the 7th inning
The seventh inning of a Jays elimination game? Of course, we’re starting here. The Jays started at the bottom of the seventh, down 3-1, with just over a 20% chance of winning by WPA. Bryan Woo came out for his third inning of the game and had been cruising, retiring six of the seven batters he had faced with a pair of strikeouts. Addison Barger worked a 5-pitch walk (+6.7 WPA), and Isiah Kiner-Falefa followed that with an excuse-me-single up the middle (+10.6% WPA) to put runners at first and second with none out. Then it was Andrés Giménez coming to the plate, and despite him being tied for second in home runs this round, he was asked to lay down a sacrifice bunt and move the runners over.

On a pure read of the run expectancy matrix, this is a play that increases the odds of scoring a run. Seattle was in the same situation in the second inning, and while the sac bunt was successful, they didn’t cash in any runs. In the seventh inning, when the Jays had only nine outs left in their season, the Giménez sac bunt actually lowered Toronto’s win probability. It was enough to chase Woo from the game, though, and the Mariners turned to Eduard Bazardo to face George Springer. Seattle pitchers had been working Springer inside all game, and Bazardo was no different, starting him off with a sinker well inside for ball one. 

Then Springer channeled some Dylan Thomas:

Quote

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

The next pitch, another sinker, caught too much of the plate, and Springer was looking for it. He launched it into the stands (+40.7% WPA!), refusing to let the Jays go gently into the night. At the same time, he launched himself into Blue Jays history, hitting (arguably) the second-most important playoff home run this team has ever seen.

Shane Bieber: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Bieber wasn’t at his sharpest and was maybe a bit unlucky. He hung some sliders that ended up as hits, but was fortunate not to be caught for too much damage. When the breaking balls were placed where Bieber wanted them, he generated weak contact (two grounders back to the pitcher) and whiffs (13 in the game). He surrendered a solo home run to Julio Rodríguez (-11.6 WPA) on a slider well off the plate. According to Sarah Langs of MLB.com, it was the furthest outside pitch Rodríguez had ever homered on in his career. Three of the hits he gave up missed infield gloves by inches, so his .545 BABIP points to a degree of unluckiness, but it also took him 74 pitches to go twice through the order. He left the game with Seattle up by one run, at 2-1; he kept the game within reach.

Louis Varland and Seranthony Domínguez: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER
Varland was called upon for the 10th time in 11 games. He came in to finish the fourth inning and closed it without issue. Then, with Cal Raleigh leading off the fifth, Varland threw him a pair of changeups, inducing swings on both. The first registered a strike, the second went 381 feet and extended the Mariners' lead to 3-1. Varland would settle in and retire the Mariners' 3-4-5 hitters to end the inning. Domínguez would come in for the sixth inning and retire the side in order, keeping the Jays close and not allowing any add-on runs for Seattle.

Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER
Game Seven means all hands on deck, and John Schneider turned to the two starters with the most innings pitched in the regular season to take the seventh and eighth. Gausman’s inning started with a walk to the #9 hitter, Victor Robles, but he could erase that by getting a GIDP from Julio Rodríguez. Then, an intentional walk to Raleigh and a half-intentional walk to Josh Naylor put two on, with two out, and again, the fanbase held their breath. A groundout from Jorge Polanco ended the threat, and the Jays, behind that Springer homer, would take the lead in the bottom half of the inning. Thanks to Springer’s timing, Gausman, who started Games One and Five, would get his first win in the relief appearance. Bassitt said after the game that he knew he was coming in for the 8th, and after Springer put the Jays on top, he locked in. A pair of groundouts and a cheeky called-third-strike curveball would give Bassitt one of his best innings of the season. 10 pitches to put the Jays three outs away from the World Series.

Jeff Hoffman: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Hoffman threw 35 pitches over two innings in Game Six the night before, and I wondered aloud if, given his efficient 8th, we might see Bassitt come back out to finish the game. The Jays didn’t sign Hoffman to be their closer to let anyone else have this moment, though. Boy oh boy, did Hoffman rise to the moment. Back-to-back-to-back strikeouts to close out the game and leave Raleigh standing in the on-deck circle while Toronto celebrated their return to the World Series. What an incredible game and an incredible finish.

The best home team of the regular season gets to stay home and await the Dodgers, who will be coming here for Game One of the World Series on Friday. We’ll have lots of coverage leading up to it, but if there’s one thing we should remember, the last four times one LCS was a sweep and the other went seven games, the game seven winners would go on to win the World Series. Let the streak continue, and more history will be made.

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[Mac]

Awesome job with the recaps all series Mike! These have been great reads the morning after.

[Leo Morgenstern]

7 minutes ago, Mac said:

Awesome job with the recaps all series Mike! These have been great reads the morning after.

Couldn't agree more!

[Mike LeSage]

22 hours ago, Mac said:

Awesome job with the recaps all series Mike! These have been great reads the morning after.

Thanks so much! Let me tell you, they're MUCH more fun to write when we're winning!