Article: What Ty France Brings to the Blue Jays

[Bob Ritchie]

On MLB’s trade deadline day, Toronto acquired Louis Varland and Ty France from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Alan Roden and Kendry Rojas. In the article, "Louis Varland (and Ty France) Are Good Players Who Came at a Sizable Cost," Simon Li examined the price paid by Toronto to acquire Varland and France. I reviewed Varland’s impact on Toronto’s bullpen in the piece, "How Will Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland Impact the Blue Jays’ Bullpen?". However, many observers reacted to the Blue Jays’ acquisition of France with puzzlement. Let us see what France brings to the table.

France is a 30-year-old first baseman with seven seasons of MLB experience. His best MLB campaign was in 2021 when he posted a 3.2 fWAR and a 129 wRC+. However, as Table 1 shows, France’s wRC+ has deteriorated since 2021. Additionally, except for 2022, his ISO has been lower than the MLB average for the noted seasons. Concerning 2025 handedness splits, he has a 100 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers and a 94 against right-handers; neither wRC+ score suggests a capable platoon player. There's more. His sprint speed ranks in the fifth percentile, and his GIDP% is 10.7%, higher than the 9.4% MLB average.

Geez, is there any good news? Yes! Except for 2024, his OBP has exceeded the MLB average in each year during the 2021-2025 period. In 2025, his first base defence has been above average (tied for third with a +5 Fielding Run Value). Additionally, as I noted in the article, "Andrés Giménez: Hit Me With Your Best Shot," starting in 2022, no player has been hit by more pitches than France. 

In summary, France appears to be a slow-footed, defence-first player who gets on base at a better-than-average rate but does so with below-average power, grounds into double plays at an excessive rate, and does not offer excellence against lefties or righties. That does not sound appealing. Please don't worry, there are more tables to come.

The key metric in the Case for France is xwOBA minus wOBA. Among the reasons why xwOBA can exceed wOBA are batter foot speed and bad luck. Concerning foot speed, slow runners can, for example, turn what xwOBA considers a likely double into a single (which would be the wOBA input). France and Alejandro Kirk (second percentile sprint speed ranking) are among the slowest runners on any MLB roster. All else being equal, a slow runner will have a positive xwOBA-wOBA differential.

Regarding bad luck/randomness, there are elements of a play that a batter cannot control, including the quality of defence faced and hitting or not hitting pitches right at fielders. A run of bad luck will increase a player's xwOBA-wOBA differential. Therefore, we should not be surprised to see positive regression occur in the future for batters with a recent run of bad luck.

Table 2 shows sprint speed, wOBA and xwOBA over the past five seasons for France, Kirk, George Springer, and old friend, Teoscar Hernández. The data shows that regardless of foot speed, be it the slow-poke Kirk or the speedier Teo, batters can have positive or negative xwOBA-wOBA differentials. Admittedly, the data for these four batters make for a small sample. However, because it makes sense intuitively, it is reasonable to conclude that a positive xwOBA-wOBA difference can, in part, be due to foot speed. However, part of the difference can also be attributable to bad luck, in which case regression can occur. Hence, we should not be surprised if France shows better “actual” results in the future than his current wOBA indicates.

How impactful has bad luck been on France’s 2025 results? Suppose France’s xwOBA-wOBA delta is due solely to bad luck. His 2025 xwOBA-wOBA difference is 34 points [(0.342 – 0.308) x 1000]. In wRC+ terms, France's 0.308 wOBA translates into a 95 wRC+, while a 0.342 corresponds (approximately) with a 120 wRC+. That 25-point wRC+ difference is significant.

I have assumed that France’s expected stats indicate better “actual” performance for the balance of the 2025 season. Accordingly, let us examine how Toronto could use France. Consider Table 3.

When facing right-handed pitchers, France’s 0.333 xwOBA translates into a 113 wRC+, and his 0.155 xISO (xSLG–xBA) is league average. The more interesting component of France’s batting is how he has performed against left-handed pitchers. His 0.363 xwOBA corresponds to a 134 wRC+, and his xISO is 0.234, well above the 0.156 MLB average ISO. Those two metrics are attractive. How do France’s xwOBA stats compare to those of other Blue Jays? Consider Table 4.

Against left-handed pitchers, France’s xwOBA ranks as the third highest among the listed Blue Jays. This grade makes France a valuable bat for Toronto. He could pinch-hit for Addison Barger or Joey Loperfido when a lefty is on the mound. Another option for manager John Schneider would be to have France play first base or be the designated hitter when Toronto faces a left-handed starter. Additionally, France and his 0.333 xwOBA could start at first base against a right-handed starter in games when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the day off.

Toronto’s acquisition of France was reasonable. His expected batting metrics suggest that he is an above-average batter with power when facing left-handed pitchers. Also, his first base defence is superior to Guerrero Jr.'s; the latter has a -1 Fielding Run Value, tied for tenth highest among qualified first basemen. It appears that Toronto prefers having France play first base rather than playing someone such as Ernie Clement out of position. Additionally, France is an insurance policy in case one of Toronto’s less-experienced position players falters as the 2025 season progresses.

So, let’s go, Ty! Not so fast. Toronto’s acquisition of France creates a roster issue. Andrés Giménez is nearing the end of his stint on the injured list and, accordingly, Toronto will soon have to make a spot for him on the 26-man roster. The likely candidate to leave the roster is Buddy Kennedy. However, Springer will also need a place on the roster when he returns from the seven-day injured list. That means that one of the outfielders (Barger, Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, or Myles Straw) or France is a candidate for removal from the roster. I assume the Blue Jays will not want to reduce the number of pitchers from 13 to 12 when they add back Springer. Of the listed candidates, Barger, Loperfido, Schneider, and Lukes have minor league options. Therefore, Toronto can send them to Buffalo without putting them on waivers. Concerning Straw and France, neither of whom has any remaining minor league options, Toronto would have to designate either for assignment to clear a space on the 26-man roster for Springer.

From a roster management perspective, if Toronto wants to make space for Springer but not risk losing a player to a waiver claim, then Toronto should send one of the players with minor league options to Buffalo. However, all four have played well this season. It would be a tough decision to make. On the bright side, rosters expand from 26 to 28 on September 1. Therefore, the Buffalo-bound outfielder could be back in Toronto in a few weeks.

Alternatively, Toronto could make way for Springer by designating France for assignment, hoping he clears waivers and bringing him back in September. This France decision would be difficult, made more challenging because France, based on his expected batting metrics and defence, should prove to be a valuable contributor to Toronto’s 2025 fortunes.

The Last Word
Initially, Toronto’s acquisition of France at the trade deadline was puzzling. His box score batting metrics are near-average, and his wRC+ has been in decline since his 2021 breakout season. However, France’s expected batting metrics suggest better performance in the future, particularly against left-handed pitchers. However, from the No-Good-Deed-Goes-Unpunished School of Baseball Management, having France on the 26-man roster with the impending return of Springer creates a roster-move decision for Toronto. Let us see how the roster juggling unfolds! 

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[GoBlue41]

It's still puzzling. 

[max silver]

France has actually been hitting pretty well over the last month with a 137 wRC+, albeit with no home run power. He presents an interesting project hitter for the coaching staff, but one that I ultimately would have preferred to be given a shot in spring training to earn a spot vs the middle of a pennant race. Aside from mystery pickup Buddy Kennedy he'll almost certainly be the least deserving guy to stick around once Springer and Gimenez are ready to return, and it wouldn't surprise me if Loperfido ends up being sent back to Buffalo for a few weeks as more of an asset management type of move.