Article: Pros and Cons of 5 Potential Blue Jays Trade Deadline Targets

[Jesse Burrill]

The Toronto Blue Jays are in first place in the AL East. With only one division title since they won back-to-back World Series in the early 90's, the Blue Jays find themselves in a position that they aren't used to with he trade deadline fast approaching.

History aside, there is no longer a conversation about whether or not the Blue Jays should be buyers or sellers, or if they should be looking to unload players one year from free agency, like they did with Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Justin Turner and others in 2024. The Blue Jays are a contending team, and they have to act like a World Series hopeful. Which means they’ve got to buy and find anyway possible to make their team better.

What makes the deadline so interesting this year is that there are multiple pathways for the team to take. The Blue Jays are 11th in runs scored on the season and 20th in home runs, so the argument can be made that they should look to add a power bat. They thought they had that need in the offseason, when they signed Anthony Santander to a five-year contract, but with only six home runs, a .577 OPS in just 50 games played, he hasn’t filled the role that the team was hoping he would.

The Jays could also use more pitching. They aren't alone in this, as all the teams who find themselves with a chance of entering the dance in October also need more arms, but the Blue Jays' need may be more exacerbated. Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt have been staples in the rotation so far, but all three of them have had some inconsistencies, leading to some up-and-down performances. Max Scherzer is back now, but with his constant thumb issues, it's hard to rely on him to be able to stay healthy for the whole season. Eric Lauer has been a revelation since joining the rotation, posting a 2.80 ERA, with a xERA and FIP not too far off, but Lauer hasn't thrown more than 100 IP since 2022 with the Brewers and there is some concern that the clock may strike midnight soon.

The Blue Jays' bullpen has had some pleasant surprises — Yariel Rodriguez has turned into one of the more dominant set-up men in MLB, Justin Bruhil, Brendon Little, and Brayden Fisher have all had success, and even with injuries to Yimi Garcia and Nick Sandlin, and some home run issues at times with Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green, the Blue Jays bullpen as a whole has been in pretty good shape. But there is always a chance the Blue Jays could add more as the calendar approaches the July 31 trade deadline.

On Monday, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN wrote an article about MLB’s top 50 trade deadline candidates, and the Blue Jays were mentioned as “best fits” for several of the players listed. It's worth exploring a little more just how much each player mentioned would actually fit in with the Toronto Blue Jays and lay out a case for and against each candidate, and whether or not said player will be coming north of the border come the second half of the season:

1. Steven Kwan OF, Cleveland Guardians

The case for: You don’t have to squint very hard to see why the Blue Jays would be interested in a player like Kwan, He’s won a Gold Glove in all three seasons he’s played in the majors, walks more than he strikes out, and is incredible at putting the bat on the ball (a whiff rate below 10% each of the last three seasons), which is a skill the Blue Jays absolutely adore. The Blue Jays have also been without a true leadoff hitter in quite some time, and Kwan would solve that issue immediately upon arrival.

The case against: The issue for the Blue Jays right now is that they’ve already got a crowded outfield. Daulton Varsho is currently on a rehab assignment and is nearing a return. Addison Barger has been seeing a lot of time in RF, and the Blue Jays have been having success with the Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider rotation in the other spot. On top of that, Kwan is not going to be cheap, as he’s not a free agent until the 2028 season, and the Guardians don't necessarily need to trade him this trade deadline, If Kwan delivers and helps guide the Blue Jays to a World Series, then it won't matter what the Blue Jays gave up. But if it doesn’t, it could affect the long-term viability of the Blue Jays if one of their top prospects ends up becoming a superstar in another organization.

2. Sandy Alcantara SP Miami Marlins

The Case For: It's not that often that former Cy Young Award winners become available, and that is exactly what is happening here with the Miami Marlins. Alcantara’s 8.0 bWAR season in 2022 is the best MLB has seen for a pitcher since Aaron Nola in 2018. So, it's exciting to dream of adding that player to any rotation, especially for a team like the Blue Jays, who have been looking for an ace, and if h'es right, he could fit that bill. Add in the fact that he’s under contract through the 2026 season and has a club option for 2027, there is some team control here, which historically this Blue Jays front office has valued.

The Case Against: The problem with Alcantara is that he hasn’t looked like that ace for quite some time. He underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2023 and missed the entire 2024 season. He was able to return to start the 2025 season, but he simply hasn't pitched well. A 7.14 ERA is ugly no matter how you look at it, and the strikeouts are down, the walks are up, and so are the home runs. None of that gives much hope that a turnaround is coming, at least right away. It's hard to justify giving up on some future players for a pitcher who, as things currently stand, isn't better than any of the five that are currently in the rotation, and unless the Blue Jays are quite certain they know what it's going to take to turn him back into a Cy Young candidate, then it may be buyer beware for Alcantara.

3. Seth Lugo RHP Kansas City Royals

The Case For: Seth Lugo just seems like the Blue Jays' type of pitcher. He throws eight different pitches more than 5% of the time. There are shades of Chris Bassitt here, who has had success with in Toronto. Beyond that, Lugo has also been quite effective over the past few seasons. He had a 3.60 ERA or better in five straight seasons, including a 2024 season that saw him produce a 5.4 bWAR and finish second in the AL Cy Young award. His 2025 season has been pretty good as well; his 2.94 ERA is right in line with where it was in the prior season. He instantly makes any rotation better.

The Case Against: There is some worry that Lugo’s ability to induce soft contact is fading. He’s got a 46.3% hard-hit rate, which is in the bottom 10% of MLB, and although the actual ERA is good, xERA has Lugo at a 4.71 mark, which is the highest since his sophomore year in 2017. On top of that, Lugo is now 35 years old, and if he declines his player option for 2025, he could be a free agent at season's end. If Lugo can continue his run of strong pitching, then it's worth the move 10 times out of 10, but if his numbers regress back to the mean, and the hard hits keep coming against him, it may be hard to rely on Lugo as a dominant force going forward.

4. Mitch Keller SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Case For: Out of all the pitchers mentioned on this list, Keller might be pitching the best at the moment, He’s currently running a 3.48 ERA, which is the best of his career, and is also under team control until the 2029 season, which could be of interest for the Blue Jays. Bassitt and Scherzer are set to become free agents this season, and Gausman and potentially Berrios (if he opts out) will join them shortly after. Keller's four-seam/sweeper combo has been quite good, with a +11 run value on the fastball and a +5 on the sweeper. Combine that with the fact he’s made 29 or more starts each of the last three seasons, and there is a case that Keller can provide a strong mix of durability and effectiveness going into the postseason. The Jays and Pirates have linked up for trades before, and the Pirates are most likely going to want bats, and the Blue Jays have a ton of those in the high minors that they could look to move on from.

The Case Against: There is some concern under the hood with Keller; the hard-hit rate has been up, and the strikeouts have been down. Neither of those are trends that most contenders want to see before they acquire a player. There is also the fact that Mitch Keller has never pitched in the playoffs before. Now, that's not necessarily his fault, but there is some concern to see how a player will hold up under the bright lights of October.

5. Zac Gallen SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Case For: If you’re looking to try to strike gold on upside, then Gallen might be the best play at the deadline. From 2022-2024, Gallen was consistently one of the better pitchers in the game. Throwing at least 148 innings in all three seasons, finishing top-five in NL Cy Young voting in two of those seasons, and finishing as the leader in the NL in WHIP (0.913) in 2022, he's a proven ace. On top of that, Gallen does have some postseason experience. He made six starts for the Diamondbacks in their run to the World Series in 2023, pitching to a 4.54 ERA in over 30 innings, showing that he can pitch on the big stage.

The Case Against: Although Gallen has been that good for the past three seasons, his 2025 campaign this far leaves more to be desired. He’s currently running a 5.58 ERA and is having career-worst numbers in strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed, and more. In addition, Gallen is purely a rental, as he is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2025 season, meaning that the team runs the risk of losing him at the end of the season if he doesn't re-sign in Toronto. It's another case of high-risk, high-reward, and it comes down to just how risky the Blue Jays want to be this trade deadline.

Honorable Mentions:
Edward Cabrera SP - Miami Marlins
Merrill Kelly SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
Jhoan Duran RP - Minnesota Twins
David Bednar RP - Pittsburgh Pirates
Ryan Helsley RP - St. Louis Cardinals
Luis Severino SP - Athletics

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No matter what happens between now and July 31, it feels like the Blue Jays are going to make some additions to their roster, and pitching seems like the sure way to go. The Blue Jays are in a position where, no matter who they acquire, there is going to be some risk either way, but the worst thing they can do is stand pat, and let the other teams around them get better, This is the best chance Toronto has had for a World Series title since the Josh Donaldson/Jose Bautista era in the mid-2010’s. This is the last chance the Blue Jays have to make additions to the roster, and making the right move at this deadline could be the difference between this team making a run deep into October or being out of the playoffs early for a fourth straight appearance. And the latter is a sight that no fan, player, or front office member wants to have happen again.

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[Spanky__99]

Bubic? We need a Bubic and an elite reliever or 2, imo. Bubic, Bednar and Santana from the Bucs.