Article: Toronto Blue Jays: A Midseason Hitting Review

[Bob Ritchie]

On Friday, June 27, the Toronto Blue Jays played Game 81 of the 2025 Major League Baseball season. Therefore, it is time for the tried-and-true (tired-and-true?) midseason review.

One of the aspects of the team that needed improvement in 2025 was hitting. Last season, Toronto batters produced a 100 wRC+, the American League’s ninth-best. They scored 671 runs (11th-most), and their home run total of 156 ranked 13th among their American League brethren. Those 2024 marks were lower than 2023’s 106 wRC+, 746 runs scored, and 188 home runs. I’ll spare the reader the gory details, but those 2023 numbers were lower than the 2022 marks. Hence, Toronto’s management focused on better performance in the batter’s box from the 2025 Blue Jays.

To that end, Toronto added Anthony Santander in the offseason. Unfortunately, Santander’s contributions to the offence have been limited because of underperformance (64 wRC+) and injury woes (he hasn’t played since May 29). Also, injuries have limited Daulton Varsho’s playing time and bat. He underwent offseason shoulder surgery, which delayed his 2025 debut until April 29. Additionally, he suffered a hamstring injury and has not played since May 31. Yet, in 24 games, Varsho produced a 105 wRC+, eight home runs and a 0.337 ISO. Despite these setbacks, Toronto’s batters have performed well thus far this season. Consider Table 1.

Batting Summary by Month
The Blue Jays had a poor start to the season. In March/April, their wRC+, ISO, runs scored, and home runs ranked no higher than 11th among American League teams.  When the calendar turned to May, the Blue Jays lineup became a hitting machine. They ranked no lower than third in the listed metrics. As of June 29, Toronto lagged behind most of the other American League teams in the power department (ISO and home runs) in June. However, compared to other teams, Blue Jay batters were getting on base and scoring runs at a high rate. For the season to date, Toronto hitters have performed well in some metrics (wRC+, OBP, and runs scored), but not in others (ISO and home runs). 

Batting Details
There are many blue cells on Table 2, which is a good thing. The highlights are as follows:

• Blue Jay batters have performed well in RISP situations. However, there is a significant amount of randomness in RISP results, particularly during the in-season period. For support, please refer to Table 3, which I compiled a few years ago for a Jays From the Couch article (hat tip to Shaun Doyle, JFtC Founder and Analyst Herder).
• For example, the team with the highest RISP OPS in the first half of the 2022 season posted the 25th-best mark in the second half. Yet, the ballclub with a 0.783 RISP OPS (#5) generated a 0.790 RISP OPS (#6) in the second part of the 2022 season. Therefore, as many studies have demonstrated, RISP results contain a significant amount of randomness and are accordingly not predictive. In other words, a word of caution concerning any assumptions about how the Blue Jays will perform in the second half of the 2025 campaign with RISP.
• I consider it a positive that Toronto’s wRC+ is above average whether facing right-handers or left-handers.
• Toronto’s wRC+ from the first to third batting slots ranks ninth, which is disappointing. However, after May 31, Toronto’s 123 wRC+ from these slots ranks as the fifth-highest. The better performance is mainly attributable to Addison Barger’s June wRC+, which was better than Santander’s and Varsho's May wRC+ numbers.
• The home and away splits are striking. However, the difference is likely due to randomness. For example, Toronto’s 2024 home wRC+ was 102, while it was 99 on the road. For the balance of the 2025 season, the home and away splits should move closer.
• Concerning wRC+ by position, the excellence of Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. accounts for Toronto’s high catcher and first base rankings.
• Andrés Giménez’s low wRC+ is the reason for the Blue Jays' low second base ranking. Regarding left field, Jonatan Clase’s and Alan Roden’s low wRC+ figures have been a drag on the overall left field batting results.

Run Distribution
Concerning the sources of runs, Table 4 shows Toronto’s numbers and rankings among American League teams. For the sake of saving space, I presented only American League East teams and the highest-scoring team (Detroit). The table highlights Toronto’s strong ranking in scoring runs from balls in play (#3) and its less impressive ranking in scoring runs from home runs (#11). The latter observation is consistent with Table 1’s below-average ISO and home run totals.

Player Batting Splits
Table 5 contains splits by pitcher handedness. The items of note are as follows:

• George Springer has performed well at the plate, whether facing righties or lefties.
• Ernie Clement has pronounced splits. His 63 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers lags far behind his 231 wRC+ when facing southpaws. His 0.367 xwOBA against lefties suggests that the 0.498 wOBA is not sustainable. Furthermore, only 26% of all MLB plate appearances are against left-handers. Hence, we should not be surprised if Clement’s overall batting declines from these lofty heights.
• I would not be shocked if Giménez produces better batting box score results for the balance of 2025. With the caveat that MLB’s average xwOBA exceeds wOBA by 12 points, Giménez’s +30 point xwOBA-wOBA difference versus righties and +118 point xwOBA-wOBA delta against lefties suggests better “actual” batting results to come.  

Another aspect to examine is plate discipline. Hence, I present Table 6.

Plate Discipline
Concerning plate discipline, the highlights are as follows:

• On a relative basis, the Blue Jays chase pitches at a high rate. However, their Chase% in all counts, while the eighth-highest, is only one percentage point higher than the MLB Average.
• On the other hand, Toronto’s contact rate on pitches out of the strike zone is MLB’s best.
• With two strikes, be it on pitches in or out of the zone, Toronto’s high contact rate largely accounts for the team's MLB-lowest K% (17.7%). Additionally, as of June 30, the Blue Jays have the fewest plate appearances (1,545) and the lowest K% (36.6%) in two-strike counts.

The Last Word
Concerning batting performance, the Toronto Blue Jays exceeded expectations during the first half of the 2025 season. Despite injuries to key hitters (Santander and Varsho) and Santander’s underperformance, the team ranks in the top five in the AL in wRC+ and OBP. However, their power numbers trail those of most American League ballclubs.

When I look at the balance of the 2025 season, I see encouraging signs. I expect Santander to return to form and Varsho to continue his above-average 2025 batting performance. Also, Toronto’s xwOBA exceeds its wOBA by 19 points. Hence, while there might be positive (Giménez) or negative (Clement) reversion at the player level, the xwOBA-wOBA delta does not indicate Lady Luck regression at the team level. Lastly, Ross Atkins stated that Toronto aims to acquire a right-handed bat, whether through internal or external means. Better Blue Jays' batting days are ahead!  

View full article