Article: Bo Bichette Isn't A Perfect Leadoff Option, But Who On This Roster Should Replace Him?

[Simon Li]

After an injury-plagued 2024 season, Bo Bichette has returned to being an above-average hitter with a .274/.313/.427 slashline for a 108 wRC+. Bichette has been doing most of his work slotted right into that leadoff spot, except for this clutch pinch-hit homer to win the game for the Blue Jays against the Rangers on May 28th. That was the only plate appearance that Bo was not the one-hitter so far this season. 

That begs the question: Is Bo Bichette the right man for the job at the leadoff spot? The leadoff spot typically has one of your best hitters, which Bo has been consistently over his entire Blue Jays tenure, but also typically comes with a higher on-base percentage. Bichette has one of the lowest on-base percentages on the team because of his tendency not to take a walk, largely due to his excellent contact abilities. Of all leadoff hitters in MLB with greater than 50 plate appearances, Bo ranks 42nd in OBP, as well as 49th in walk percentage (via FanGraphs). Bichette is a good hitter, but there should be a better option to lead off for the Jays, as well as a better spot in the batting order for Bo to utilize his strengths. 

Bichette’s strengths have always been obvious on the offensive end, and that is that he can flat-out hit. He’s always been one of the league leaders, if not the league leader, in hits, and since his first “full season” in 2020, he’s had the 13th highest hit total amongst all hitters. His batting average is also near the top, being the 16th highest since the beginning of 2020. There is an old adage that a walk is just as good as a hit, but ultimately, that’s not entirely true. As noted by former Jays Centre editor Davy Andrews, a walk is around 61.5% as good a hit. One of the main reasons is that walks are limited to just one base for the most part, and if you have a runner in scoring position, a walk will just add another baserunner, whereas a base hit could potentially score you a run. In such instances with a runner in scoring position, Bo Bichette has been the ninth-best hitter in baseball (according to FanGraphs, minimum 40 PAs), hitting an absurd .400/.432/.625 for a 195 wRC+. Perhaps the Jays should maximize Bichette’s plate appearances to ensure that runners are on base, rather than having him lead off before other hitters who have a less likely chance of getting on base for them.

This leads to another question, however: Do the Jays even have a leadoff hitter that could replace Bo? There are a few options, the most obvious one being the hitter with the second-most leadoff home runs in MLB history in George Springer, who’s been having a renaissance season himself. Unlike Bo, Springer carries an OBP of .362, walks 12.5% of the time, and rarely chases balls at 20.2% (compared to Bo’s 34.6%). The easiest and most obvious solution is for John Schneider to slot Springer back to the spot in the lineup that earned him his massive contract. 

Another potential option, albeit somewhat unrealistic, is to have a platoon at the top of the order. Nathan Lukes’ bat has cooled off after coming back from the concussion IL, but he still carries a strong .349 OBP against righties that comes with an 11.7% walk rate, and on the short side of the platoon, why not let Ernie Clement see more lefties? He’s been absolutely destroying them, and with a .430/.477/.722 triple slash line, including a surprising 9.0% walk rate, Ernie and Lukes could make a duo that is greater than the sum of its parts. However, this is unlikely again, as John Schneider and the Blue Jays might prefer more continuity at the leadoff spot, and having to pinch-hit for your leadoff hitter would not be ideal. 

This brings me to my favourite option, which is the movement to have Alejandro Kirk bat leadoff. Like George Springer, he’s also had his bat bounce back to solidly above average, and he also has the same OBP as Springer does, with a .362. Alejandro doesn’t walk nearly as much as Springer does, but he’s able to get on base at the same clip with his strong contact ability and the refusal to strike out. Captain Kirk has had his best batted ball metrics in his career, and allowing one of the hottest hitters on the team to get more plate appearances is obviously a good thing. There are obvious issues with leading Kirk off, as Springer is an above-average base runner who has stolen nine bases on the season, and Kirk is the opposite of that. Kirk is also a strong contact hitter who has been one of the best on the team, excelling at hitting with runners in scoring position. Therefore, potentially having Kirk hit behind hitters who can get on base will also maximize his opportunities. Still, it is fun to see managers break convention and lead off a slower, plodding catcher compared to a speedier outfielder. 

Regardless of who replaces Bo at the one-hole, it would be pertinent to give Bichette more opportunities with runners in scoring position, and moving him to the cleanup spot could be the easiest way to do so. 

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[Terry Mesmer]

>the movement to have Alejandro Kirk bat leadoff

Let us be serious.

[Spanky__99]

If it were to be anyone, it'd be Springer. I doubt they change anything anytime soon.