Article: Andrés Giménez and the Quest for a 40-Steal Season

[Leo Morgenstern]

Andrés Giménez is on pace to become the first Blue Jay to steal 40 bases in a season in over a decade. Can he keep it up?

Andrés Giménez is one of seven players with at least 30 stolen bases in both of the past two seasons. He is also one of seven with at least 20 stolen bases in each of the past three seasons. He is one of just three players to appear on both lists, along with Nico Hoerner and Bobby Witt Jr. All told, Giménez ranks 11th in MLB in steals since the start of the 2022 campaign. He ranks 15th in stolen base run value, according to Baseball Savant. Point being, you can count him among the preeminent base thieves active in the game today. 

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have not been nearly as productive on the basepaths. They ranked 21st in stolen bases in 2022, 22nd in 2023, and 27th just last season. Altogether, their 238 steals from 2022-24 ranked 25th, while their 73.7% success rate was the third-worst in the sport. Baseball Savant will tell you they were the worst base-stealing team in the league over those three years, with a collective -12 run value. Indeed, the Blue Jays rank as the worst base-stealing team in the Statcast era, with -20 base-stealing runs since the 2016 season.

Perhaps it was the Platinum Glove defense that first caught Toronto’s eye, but there is no doubt the Blue Jays also wanted Giménez for his legs. It has been more than a decade since a Blue Jays player stole 30 bases in a season. The last Blue Jay to surpass 30 steals was Rajai Davis, who swiped 45 bags in 2013. Giménez has never stolen more than 30 bases in a season, although he reached exactly 30 in both 2023 and ‘24. Yet, with nine steals in 35 games, he is currently on pace for 42 by the end of the year.

Keep the small sample in mind, but Giménez has been more aggressive so far with the Blue Jays than he was with the Guardians. He has averaged one stolen base attempt every 4.9 opportunities this season, using the calculation of stolen base opportunities (SBO) from Baseball Reference. In comparison, he averaged one attempt every 5.8 SBO in 2023 and one attempt every 6.8 SBO in ‘24. 

Something else to keep in mind is that Giménez is averaging slightly fewer stolen base opportunities per game this year than he did from 2023-24, presumably because he is slumping and therefore reaching base less often. However, his Statcast expected metrics offer reason for optimism that his slump won’t last forever. His .330 xOBP is significantly better than his .271 on-base percentage. It’s also meaningfully better than his  .306 OBP and .307 xOBP from 2023-24. Giménez is already on pace to become the first Blue Jay in 12 years to swipe 40 bags. If he can bring his OBP up to the same range as his xOBP, it’s not far-fetched to suggest that he could surpass Davis’s 2012 and ‘13 stolen base totals (46 and 45, respectively). If he can pull that off, he’ll have stolen more bases in a season than any other Blue Jay in the 21st century.

Now, a cynic might point out that Giménez has had stolen base success like this before. He had 35-game stretches with at least nine stolen bases in 2022, ‘23, and ‘24. The fact that he’s on a 42-steal pace right now is far from a guarantee that he’ll keep it up all year.

I can’t disagree with that argument. However, for what it’s worth, this particular 35-game stretch is different from all the others. This is the first time Giménez has stolen nine bases in a 35-game stretch so early in the season. I can’t tell you why, but he always seems to heat up on the bases after the All-Star break. Take a look at his stolen base splits in each of the previous three years:

Season	First Half			Second Half
	Steals	Games	Steals per 162	Steals	Games	Steals per 162
2022	7	78	14.5	13	39	54.0
2023	15	86	28.3	15	66	36.8
2024	15	88	27.6	15	67	36.3

This could certainly be a coincidence. It probably is. Nevertheless, the fact that Giménez is stealing this frequently so early in the season makes me feel more optimistic that he’s going to keep it up.

Stolen bases are universally beloved by baseball fans. Not everyone likes the rule changes that led to an increase in stolen bases, but I’ve yet to meet anyone who thinks the game would be better with fewer steals. Unfortunately, Blue Jays fans have gotten the short end of the stolen base stick for far too long. Andrés Giménez alone cannot solve this team’s baserunning issues, but at least he can give the fanbase one great base-stealer to root for, the likes of which this city has not had since Rajai Davis left town.

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[Mike LeSage]

Love any analysis that comes with the caveat "This could certainly be a coincidence. It probably is." Those are always the most fun. Well done!

[Leo Morgenstern]

1 hour ago, Mike LeSage said:

Love any analysis that comes with the caveat "This could certainly be a coincidence. It probably is." Those are always the most fun. Well done!

Hahaha thank you! I'm glad you get what I was going for with that

[SuperFuzzBigMuff]

Sweet 40 stolen bases only to be stranded there.