Is Louis Varland the Obvious Choice for the Inaugural BBWAA AL Relief Pitcher of the Year Award?

Louis Varland didn’t have the best showing after he joined the Blue Jays ahead of last season’s trade deadline. He had a 4.94 ERA, 28 strikeouts, and a 1.39 WHIP over 23 2/3 innings. Hitters were teeing off on him with a .273 batting average. The righty looked far different from the version of him that put up a 2.02 ERA over 49 innings for the Minnesota Twins, which is what enticed the Blue Jays to acquire the righty.

However, Varland is currently having the best season of his five-year career. He has a 1.30 ERA over 76 innings with a 95:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 1.00 WHIP. He has converted 34 of 36 save opportunities. He’s also been nearly unhittable, holding batters to a .197 batting average against him. Varland started the season strong, allowing an earned run in only two of his first 33 appearances, resulting in an unimaginable 0.49 ERA. 

The closer’s Baseball Savant profile is full of red, with nine statistics in the 90th percentile or higher. Varland’s knuckle curve and changeup have been making hitters look silly, with a 35.8 and 37.8 percent whiff rate, respectively. The knuckle curve’s percentage is down three percent from last season, but it’s seven percentage points higher than 2024's whiff rate. The changeup is missing bats at the highest percentage of his career and is impressively nine points higher than it was in his second-highest season (2025).`

This success should make Varland the clear favorite to win the inaugural Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s award for AL Reliever of the Year. The BBWAA has given awards for each league’s MVP, Cy Young (best pitcher), top rookie, and best manager since 1983. Writers began giving awards in 1911 with just the MVP Award; Ty Cobb and Frank Schulte were the first recipients. The association added the Rookie of the Year Award in 1947 (bestowed upon Jackie Robinson) and the Cy Young Award in 1956 (Don Newcomb).

Although Varland seems the favorite this year, the BBWAA hasn’t always voted based on statistics. Many times, bias and questionable play have influenced the votes. For instance, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot after their 10 years of eligibility; many writers refused to consider them due to their connection to performance-enhancing drugs. However, David Ortiz had similar connections but was a first-ballot selection.

There are also many cases of voters showing hometown bias or leaving leading deserving candidates off their ballots. The BBWAA has also drawn criticism for having full-time media members in other sports or for being completely out of the loop when it comes to baseball performances. There’s no transparency, so it's essentially a "do whatever you want” mentality with no set guidelines. 

With this uncertainty in mind, Bryan Baker of the Tampa Bay Rays could be a threat to steal votes from Varland and win the award. Baker leads the AL in saves (40) and has an impressive 1.52 ERA, though that ERA is higher than Varland's. The saves leader could change before the season ends, with the Cleveland Guardians’ Cade Smith only three saves behind Baker. Smith has a respectable 2.09 ERA. Whoever finishes the season with the saves lead could look like the top reliever for writers who aren’t aware of the other statistics.

Jeff Hoffman starting the season as the closer hurt Varland’s opportunity to earn additional saves. Varland took over the role in late April, after Hoffman’s struggles could no longer be overlooked. Although, Baker faced a similar situation, taking over the closer role early in the season due to injuries and poor performances on his team. Also, the Rays have been far more successful at reaching the ninth with a close lead. 

Varland has a few more chances to make a case for the award. Three series remain, and none is against a team with a winning record. However, the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles are also vying for the last Wild Card spot.

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