Article: Devil’s Advocate: The Downside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Massive Contract Extension

[Davy Andrews]

By all means, let's get excited about Monday's news. But whenever you're ready, let's think about the deal's very real risks.

I’m not here to dampen the mood. I am just as excited as anyone that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be a member of the Blue Jays until the sun expands and swallows the earth – or rather, for the next 15 years. I’m sure you’re excited too, and there are so many reasons to be excited: Guerrero’s ties to Canada, his charisma, his youth, his incredible talent, the team’s struggles to land the biggest free agents, the rarity of a one-team Hall of Famer in this day and age, and on and on. The goal of this article is not to rain on that particular parade. The goal is to make sure we understand the risks of the deal because there's no doubt about it: this is a huge risk. The Blue Jays are tying up an enormous amount of money in a great player, but one whose game is extremely one-dimensional and whose play has been inconsistent.

In the next several paragraphs, I will analyze things on a WAR-per-dollar basis. In other words, I will be asking whether Guerrero’s on-field production can provide enough value to cover his 14-year, $500 million contract. However, I just want to be clear that I realize this isn't the only way to analyze a contract situation and it’s certainly the least fun way to do it. In that sense, the Blue Jays are overpaying Guerrero, and they’re not doing it because they’re fools. They’re doing it because they think he’s worth it anyway. That said, I do think it’s important that we understand the extent to which this is an overpay, and that we appreciate the effect it might have on the team’s ability to put a consistent winner on the field.

Even the most pessimistic view of this deal would have to start with an acknowledgment that the Blue Jays just locked up one of the world’s greatest hitters, a beloved player who is only now entering his prime. That argument would close like this: But they’re paying too much for too long. That’s it. That’s the whole argument. The Blue Jays just committed themselves to paying $35.7 million dollars to Guerrero for the next 14 years, and maybe that’s too much.

It’s disturbingly easy to think of first basemen who got huge contracts and then put up essentially no value later in their careers. Albert Pujols put up 84.6 fWAR through his age-32 season, then 5.3 over the next 10 years. Prince Fielder was one of the game’s great sluggers, but injuries ended his career at age 32 and his production at age 29. Miguel Cabrera put up -2.1 fWAR from his age-34 season onward. That said, there are some important differences here.

First, Guerrero is just 26, so even if he were to fall off hard at age 32 or 34, the Blue Jays would still be getting five to seven years of production from one of the greatest hitters on this doomed planet. Second, Guerrero has been incredibly durable. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a combined total of 12 games. Since 2020, his 706 games played rank third in all of baseball. That doesn’t mean he can’t get hurt tomorrow, but it's hard to ask for a better track record.

These two factors are important because when a player signs a huge contract, the beginning is by far the most important part. These long-term deals are always way underwater for the last few years, and that will certainly be true for Guerrero. If you’re expecting him to be worth $35.7 million in his age-37 season, you probably shouldn’t read any further. No one plays like that as a 37-year-old. When these deals work out in terms of value, it’s because the player massively overperformed in the first several years. That’s the problem, because it’s far from a slam dunk that Guerrero will overperform this contract over the first several years.

The Blue Jays are paying Guerrero $35.7 million per year, and in terms of WAR per dollar, that means they’re paying him to put up approximately 4.45 WAR per season. Guerrero has only reached that threshold twice, putting up 6.3 fWAR in 2021 and 5.4 in 2024. Over the past four seasons, he’s averaged just under 4.1 fWAR per year. So let’s say that Guerrero’s next four seasons are exactly like his last four; in that case, his contract would already be $12 million underwater. What I’m saying is that he’d need to get significantly better (or at least more consistent), just to reach the break-even point in his prime.

Guerrero is capable of putting up five- or six-win seasons, but he’s only done it twice, and never back-to-back. If he’s actually going to bank enough value to give himself a chance of making this whole contract break even, he’d have to reel off several seasons in a row at the very highest level that we’ve ever seen from him. While that’s possible, it seems very, very unlikely. Guerrero has, to this point in his career, been inconsistent from year to year, so that’s probably what we should expect from him going forward: a mix of brilliance and underachievement. And if that’s what we get, then there’s no way he’ll put up even $350 million worth of production. 

Just to hammer this point home once more: I understand that this is a narrow-minded way to view Monday’s news. Guerrero is one of the most exciting players in the game, and none of the numbers I’ve beaten you over the head with over the past thousand words takes that into account. Keeping him is good for baseball and good for the soul of the Blue Jays. It gives the fans hope and someone to rally around, even when the team isn’t playing well. We don’t have to spend every day worried about the dollars and cents. That said, I’m really going to end on a bummer note here, because I think the amount of money that the Blue Jays have given Guerrero really could hurt them in the long-term.

I get that contract values go up and up, and in 10 years, this deal probably won’t look as big, but it will still look mighty big. And as much as having Guerrero around bolsters the mood now, it will hurt even more if the team spends seven or more years with their highest paid player providing no value to speak of. It will hurt even more if the team’s biggest contract gashes the roster so badly that the team simply isn’t willing to invest enough money to build a winner because it’s already starting out in such a deep hole. Cabrera is a great example of this in Detroit, as are Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin in Washington. Fans love stars, but they care a lot more about winning, and if their aging star is perceived to be standing in the way of winning, they'll sing a different tune. I would love nothing more than for Guerrero to suddenly provide serious defensive value, finally figure out how to turn all his hard contact into sustainable extra-base production, and to reel off a series of seven-win seasons. But barring that, the downside of this contract is very real and very, very large.

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[Terminator]

Wow Davy are you trying to ruin my morning or what? 😅