Article: Vernon Wells, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the Dangers of Contract Extensions

[Mike LeSage]

This isn't the first time the Blue Jays have tried to lock down their best, most-loved, homegrown player. The first time might be instructional.

A number of people, myself very much included, have been making the case that the Toronto Blue Jays should have signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at any cost. We’ve argued that he can hit the ball like very few players of his generation and we’ve handwaved concerns about his defense and baserunning. The foundation for a lot of these arguments is different for Guerrero than it is for a similar player the Jays might have pursued in free agency; think Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman as recent examples.

Guerrero is a homegrown player. He was born in Montreal while his father played with the Expos and was signed by the Blue Jays as an international free agent when he was 16. He moved up through the ranks playing in Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Buffalo before making his Toronto debut on Opening Day in 2019. Over the past four seasons, he’s been to four straight All-Star Games, won a Gold Glove and two Silver Sluggers, led the AL in home runs, led the Blue Jays in bWAR in 2024, and thrown in Home Run Derby win just for fun. This coming season will be his 10th in the organization. He has expressed a desire to remain in Toronto, and if a 14-year deal doesn’t carry him to retirement, I don’t know what will. The Blue Jays don’t have a big name career player (apologies to Luis Leal and Ricky Romero) and Guerrero represents a chance to cement that portion of the franchise’s history. (I’m also open to Bo Bichette extending and becoming that guy.) So yes, as many have noted, this signing would mean more to Toronto than any other franchise.

I’ve been thinking about Vernon Wells a lot lately, and not just because he’s one of my most-used players in Immaculate Grid. The Blue Jays selected Wells fifth in the 1997 draft. He worked his way through the minors and had some call-ups to the big club starting in 1999. He laid claim to center in 2002 and averaged more than 143 games per season there for the next nine years. Wells wasn’t as prolific as Guerrero, but in his time here he was a three-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glover, and  Silver Slugger winner who led the team in bWAR in 2006. He was a fan favourite (for a time) and one of the faces of the franchise. And he had a chance to be a career Jay.

Ahead of the 2003 season, Wells signed a five-year, $14.7-million contract. He immediately repaid that with his first All-Star appearance. He led the league in hits, doubles, and total bases, won the Silver Slugger, and finished eighth in MVP voting. In the next three seasons, Wells would win consecutive Gold Gloves, earn another All-Star selection, and finish with his best season, a 6.2-bWAR 2006 campaign. That off-season, Toronto put forward an offer to buy out the final year of Wells’ five-year contract with a seven-year, $126-million extension (an AAV jump from $2.94 million to $18 million). Naturally, Wells was agreeable to the deal and signed what was at the time the largest contract in Blue Jays history. For comparison to the 2025 Jays, and adjusted for inflation, that AAV (approximately $27 million in today’s dollars) would put him behind only Guerrero and would be close to George Springer’s six-year $150-million deal. For a decade following the Wells signing, the Jays instituted a five-year cap on both free agent signings and extensions.

In 2007, Wells battled through shoulder issues that led to off-season surgery. In 2008, he suffered a broken wrist and Toronto never saw him return to the levels that had been forecast on the day that contract was issued. That’s not to say that Wells was a bad player. In fact he’s eighth all-time in career bWAR as a Jay. But the weight and expectations that came along with that contract absolutely changed how he was perceived in this city. Time heals all wounds, and thanks to some more recent deals you won’t find Wells’ name on “Worst Contracts in Baseball” lists anymore, but for a time he topped the charts.

As you can imagine, the worst contract in the league was also considered untradable (in part because of a full no-trade clause). Yet somehow, the desperation of the Los Angeles Angels broke through and Wells was sent to the West Coast in exchange for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera before the 2011 season. Napoli and Rivera didn’t have careers worth noting in Toronto, but less than a month after Wells was traded, Jose Bautista signed a five-year, $65-million extension that likely wouldn’t have been possible with Wells still on the payroll. The other part of the contract that I’ve neglected to mention is that it was heavily backloaded. Almost 70% of the $126 million was due in the final three years, making the fact that Alex Anthopoulos was able to move it an accomplishment of mythical proportions. 

To bring it back to Guerrero, I’ve pulled this quote from J.P. Ricciardi ahead of the 2008 season “He’s our best player. And, you know, he’s the guy that’s been here the longest in a lot of ways from an everyday standpoint.  You’ve watched Vernon kind of grow up in front of you.” That’s as applicable to Guerrero today as it was to Wells then. I want Guerrero here forever. I want him to have his name on the Level of Excellence, but my memory isn’t so short that I don’t see the possibility of history repeating itself.

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[Stangstag]

It really feels like Guerrero is a massive landmine. I can’t see him coming remotely close to living up to whatever contract he signs.

Only way it makes sense is if he takes a 300mil deal, which seems extremely unlikely at this point unless he has a terrible 2025.

[Jays24]

Just now, Stangstag said:

It really feels like Guerrero is a massive landmine. I can’t see him coming remotely close to living up to whatever contract he signs.

Only way it makes sense is if he takes a 300mil deal, which seems extremely unlikely at this point unless he has a terrible 2025.

He wants to get paid like he's been the 2021 version of himself every year.  I blame the Jays for not realizing the stupidity on the field would transfer to off the field and just trade him.